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Old 09-18-2018, 03:52 PM   #31
thespaah
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete View Post
+1

I like their product a lot.

I almost made a trip out there as my sole gift to myself for my 50th birthday.

I think there is a lot of room for these ultra-boutique race meets as part of the American racing landscape.

I absolutely love the can-do and push the envelope attitude of the track management.

There are lessons in ALL of that that can be instructive for the rest of racing's leadership. They should pay attention.

But it's not a straight cut-and-copy for a number of reasons.

I became a racing fan in large part because I attended in person several times in my youth. If I had to chase a bunch of 5 day meets in remote parts of the country, I don't think I'd be the fan/player/sometimes-owner I am today.
This is the model everywhere BUT North America.
Here we have extended meets. In the UK a race meeting may last two weeks.
In Japan and Hong Kong, meets last a few days.
In Japan and Hong Kong, every race program has Breeders Cup Day sized handles.
Avg on track attendance ( JRA figures for 2017)
22, 400. Avg on track handle per race card , $2.72 million. Average All sources daily handle ....$87 million. Average starters per race 14.1
http://japanracing.jp/_statistics/2017/s01.html
Now, Japan has casinos. Japanese people love to wager. They can wager on power boat racing. There are Pachinko machines everywhere. The reason i mention this is Japanese people have tons of gaming or gambling opportunities. So that excuse used by many here in the US doesn't wash.
So someone please explain how it is that a country with on quarter the land mass and one half the population can get 14 horses to start each race....AND get more people to be more money on the product.
And all track managements here can do is make excuses.
Could it be that we here in the US and Canada just aren't doing it right?
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Old 09-18-2018, 04:34 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thespaah View Post
This is the model everywhere BUT North America.
Here we have extended meets. In the UK a race meeting may last two weeks.
In Japan and Hong Kong, meets last a few days.
In Japan and Hong Kong, every race program has Breeders Cup Day sized handles.
Avg on track attendance ( JRA figures for 2017)
22, 400. Avg on track handle per race card , $2.72 million. Average All sources daily handle ....$87 million. Average starters per race 14.1
http://japanracing.jp/_statistics/2017/s01.html
Now, Japan has casinos. Japanese people love to wager. They can wager on power boat racing. There are Pachinko machines everywhere. The reason i mention this is Japanese people have tons of gaming or gambling opportunities. So that excuse used by many here in the US doesn't wash.
So someone please explain how it is that a country with on quarter the land mass and one half the population can get 14 horses to start each race....AND get more people to be more money on the product.
And all track managements here can do is make excuses.
Could it be that we here in the US and Canada just aren't doing it right?
You need to lay out all the dynamics of the places you mention. The cost to own, the cost to run, the taxes, etc etc. Insurance, etc. Feed.

How many tracks run in China?

How many run in Australia?
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:17 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thespaah View Post
This is the model everywhere BUT North America.
Here we have extended meets. In the UK a race meeting may last two weeks.
In Japan and Hong Kong, meets last a few days.
In Japan and Hong Kong, every race program has Breeders Cup Day sized handles.
Avg on track attendance ( JRA figures for 2017)
22, 400. Avg on track handle per race card , $2.72 million. Average All sources daily handle ....$87 million. Average starters per race 14.1
http://japanracing.jp/_statistics/2017/s01.html
Now, Japan has casinos. Japanese people love to wager. They can wager on power boat racing. There are Pachinko machines everywhere. The reason i mention this is Japanese people have tons of gaming or gambling opportunities. So that excuse used by many here in the US doesn't wash.
So someone please explain how it is that a country with on quarter the land mass and one half the population can get 14 horses to start each race....AND get more people to be more money on the product.
And all track managements here can do is make excuses.
Could it be that we here in the US and Canada just aren't doing it right?
Sha Tin only runs for a few days?
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:50 PM   #34
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Sha Tin only runs for a few days?
When I was in Hong Kong, racing was twice a week, year round, either at ST or Happy Valley.
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Old 09-18-2018, 09:11 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
When I was in Hong Kong, racing was twice a week, year round, either at ST or Happy Valley.
As I mentioned, Hong Kong uses 2 Tracks, Sha Tin (normally on the weekends) and Happy Valley (normally on Wed).
They run their meets from Sept to July (10 months) and provide over 800 races (95% on the Turf).
There are no claiming or Allowance races. They have 5 basic Classes as well as GR Stakes and the very occasional Griffin (Maiden) race.
The majority of their races are handicaps with horses carrying anywhere from 112# to !34# (in the same race).

A major factor for qualifying a horse to actually being permitted to run is to prove its capability in the racing trials they hold continually on dark days.

Another major difference between HKJC and other racing jurisdictions around the world is that they provide horse races strictly for the purpose of racing. They're not concerned about breeding at all.
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Old 10-07-2018, 03:36 PM   #36
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Two weeks ago I responded to this thread and after writing a billion, (maybe hundreds of) words something blipped and lost the whole response. I will break this into a few parts in case it happens again.

***************


My favorite threads are about handicapping. I bet races to win money, I don't care who will be horse of the year. And I don't like thread where rudeness and incivility are displayed.

*******************


This may help some here with turf races. Where I have had some success with dirt races, my turf results were lackluster.

My results betting turf races has improved substantially in the last few years. My results are much greater betting grass races than dirt races.

Part of me hopes no one reads this, but I have picked up and learned from many book authors and some of you, and have incorporated many valid ideas into my handicapping. Methods from books, here and from other sources that don't work, I don't use.


Maybe you'll find something useful from my ramblings.

I retired 12/31/17 so winning is more important, if that's possible, than before.

The thread that vanished was my 5 day betting record at Kentucky Downs.

I will list only my win bets and record how they did. If I bet one horse it was $20/40 WP or $25 on two horses. I will not list the place on horses I bet WP.


The results---------
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Old 10-07-2018, 03:59 PM   #37
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When I bet 2 horses to win the odds must warrant betting two. The odds should total 8 or more. 3-1 and 5-1, or 1-1 and 8-1, etc.

Sept 1---

Race 2---2 win--- 12.20
Race 3---1 wp--- 4.20
Race 5---1 wp--- 0
Race 7---2 wp--- 5.00

-$118.5

Sept 6---

Race 2--- 1 wp--- 0
Race 3--- 2 win--- 50.60
Race 5--- 1 wp--- 17.40
Race 7--- 1 wp--- 6.40
Race 8--- 2 win--- 0
Race 9--- 2 win--- 7.80
Race 10-- 1 wp---9.40


+$12,468.35


Sept 8


Race 6--- 1 wp--- 0 horse clipped heels, fell
Race 8--- 2 win--- 0

-$138.00

Sept 12

Race 5--- 2 win--- 3.60
Race 6--- 2 win--- 14.60
Race 7--- 1 wp--- 8.80
Race10--2 win--- 0

+$382.30


Sept 13---


Race 4--- 2 win---9.00
Race 5--- 2 win--- 0
Race 6--- 2 win--- 0
Race 7--- 2 win--- 5.40
Race 8--- 2 win--- 8.80
Race 10-- 1 wp--- 8.00

-$110.80

Summery and final comments next---
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Old 10-07-2018, 04:53 PM   #38
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Before this meet I was +4,157.85.

Now am +16,757.70 betting Kentucky Downs life time.

I made win bets in 23 races and 15 horses won. Not all bets paid well, but a win is better than a loss. The $3.60 and $5.40 winners when I bet two horses meant the other bets were on much higher odds horses forcing me to eat chalk.


On 9/6 I cancelled a win bet on and eventual $8.00 winner in the 4th race because if it won I would complete large pick 3.


*****************


Now to how I improved my turf handicapping---

I ignore all dirt races, except for conditioning. If the last recent race was on dirt, look at it like a great work out.

I make all my own figures.

The first is Performance Class Rating from William L. Scott. It is a numerical class rating I find it much more reliable than earnings per start. It measures how the horse did in all turf races, if rating for a turf race,) against how many he raced against, (the larger fields, the better rating,) and the class in which it raced.


If one does not want to o it themselves Bris includes it in their All Ways program.

They do it like Scott wrote, but I tweaked it by using only final finish and making my own class comparison chart. This tweak allows me to now compare foreign pps with ours when I make my ratings.


Second is a form rating consisting of recency, running line, and stretch call.

Third is my pace figure. I make Hambleton figures because they are simple and reliable. Most important--- I don't use variants for turf races since most tracks run so few per day, maybe only one route and sprint. With 2 exceptions, off tracks I subtract one tick per variant point above average of turf variants, and Gulfstream I subtract one tick per variant point above average which lets me know or suspect if it was from a race with the rails out.

Important point--- when picking a pace line to make my figure, I learned from Michael Pizzolla's "Handicapping Magic" book to use all pace lines to find the best, most representative line.


Where I rely more on recent lines for dirt races, I used to usually use the most recent race for turf races to make a pace figure which led to many losses.


My bets generally are any horse that is in the top 3 PCR and Total Pace Rating with no form defects.


If a marathon--over 1 1/14 -- I don't make speed/pace ratings and rely on PCR, form and marathon distance breeding.


Even though it takes me longer to handicap turf races, because I have to look up breeding for horses with 2 or fewer turf races, and make multiple pace ratings to find the "best" I now have confidence when I handicap turf races.

I hope you find at least one useful nugget here.
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Old 10-08-2018, 04:50 PM   #39
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I watched KD, bet a few. Odd course shape. Purses Crazy. It looked like Fair racing. Unorthodox camera angles. As a novelty it was worthy.

Perfect Kind. $235,000 2YO F
Finished nowhere in the 5th at Belmont today. 10/8/18
The lukewarm 7/2 favorite.
Maiden allowance 75K going a mile and 16th. Turf/Good.


I saw the KD race in the PP's and my curiosity spiked to see that play out today in New York
These races at KD are hand timed? So the 22.06 2nd quarter at KD is something the numbers players are betting into? Its real?

And the timeform 77/75 . Big $ Syndicates are planning bets at Churchill off these numbers? The 57 beyer is solid? Bet that baby! Look at numbers.

And the 135K purse?, That's class you can bet into?

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Old 10-08-2018, 04:53 PM   #40
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I watched KD, bet a few. Odd course shape. Purses Crazy. It looked like Fair racing. Unorthodox camera angles. As a novelty it was worthy.

Perfect Kind. $235,000 2YO F
Finished nowhere in the 5th at Belmont today. 10/8/18
The lukewarm 7/2 favorite.
Maiden allowance 75K going a mile and 16th. Turf/Good.


I saw the KD race in the PP's and my curiosity spiked to see that play out today in New York
These races at KD are hand timed? So the 22.06 2nd quarter at KD is something the numbers players are betting into? Its real?

And the timeform 77/75 . Big $ Syndicates are planning bets at Churchill off these numbers? The 57 beyer is solid? Bet that baby! Look at numbers.

And the 135K purse?, That's class you can bet into?
Use the fractional times from KD at your own risk. They are hand timed and it is basically an impossible task. I don't make pace figures for that track as I think it would be highly inaccurate and misleading.

That said, I've done well the last few years betting horses coming out of Kentucky Downs races. Theory is it gives the horses a conditioning edge. Whether that is the reason or not, it is working and has continued to work this year. Laurel and Belmont had a few stakes winners out of KD races this weekend, and Keeneland had at least one good priced winner that I remember.
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Old 10-08-2018, 05:08 PM   #41
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Use the fractional times from KD at your own risk. They are hand timed and it is basically an impossible task. I don't make pace figures for that track as I think it would be highly inaccurate and misleading.

That said, I've done well the last few years betting horses coming out of Kentucky Downs races. Theory is it gives the horses a conditioning edge. Whether that is the reason or not, it is working and has continued to work this year. Laurel and Belmont had a few stakes winners out of KD races this weekend, and Keeneland had at least one good priced winner that I remember.
Hi Cj. I'm not trying to shine or shade on you at all. I hope you know that.

On talking horses yesterday the subject came up that the Belmont spring meet beyers were underweighted. Some players were adding to those selectively.

Then we had the The Great Saratoga Flood of 2018.

So my general point is that the entire 2018 is a high wire act when relying on numbers.

My very first take away from the very first race I saw at KD was "Uh-oh"...another edge to the sharks. I can't keep up.
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Old 10-08-2018, 05:15 PM   #42
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Hi Cj. I'm not trying to shine or shade on you at all. I hope you know that.

On talking horses yesterday the subject came up that the Belmont spring meet beyers were underweighted. Some players were adding to those selectively.

Then we had the The Great Saratoga Flood of 2018.

So my general point is that the entire 2018 is a high wire act when relying on numbers.

My very first take away from the very first race I saw at KD was "Uh-oh"...another edge to the sharks. I can't keep up.
One thing to remember is that numbers are always just one component of a handicapping strategy. If I watch a race and am visually impressed with a horse's effort, I don't give a hoot about the number. I would think this is especially important in the scenarios you are talking about.
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Old 10-08-2018, 06:03 PM   #43
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One thing to remember is that numbers are always just one component of a handicapping strategy. If I watch a race and am visually impressed with a horse's effort, I don't give a hoot about the number. I would think this is especially important in the scenarios you are talking about.
I use a combination of things to land on horses. My bankroll can be a big driver , my intuition, my reason and logic... It comes and goes what I use and how I weight them. I always bet the horses that I see. Without exception or regret.
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Old 10-08-2018, 06:14 PM   #44
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And my personal opinion on KD is that its not helpful to me. If its good for racing , I am not smart enough to know? My Uniformed guess is No.

Its gets a lot of horses to Kentucky at the right time of the year.
Its strengthens the States stranglehold on Stallions and Mares now and forever.

That's good. What I get is larger fields? Fields with a 2 YO filly who runs a 22.06 on Grass. Has a Grade 1 Turf race this year run a 2nd quarter 22 anything? Maybe.. so don't correct me, but scant few. They are doing that at KD for 90 cents on the dollar.
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Old 10-09-2018, 10:17 AM   #45
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I liked KD better when they ran in the spring (late '70s/early '80s, as the Dueling Grounds).

And why not do both - one meeting in the spring and one in the late summer/early autumn?
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