Super Bowl Prediction

[Teach]

We’re now one week away. The Patriots – as we speak --are being given a send-off at Gillette Stadium. They’re bound, out of Boston’s Logan Airport, for Atlanta and the Mercedes-Benz Stadium (I call it the “Origami” as its exterior reminds me of the Japan-originated paper-folding design). In any event, the excitement is beginning to build. What amazes me is the number of prop bets, e. g., coin toss, length of National Anthem, Super Bowl MVP, if Sony Michel scores a touchdown, etc. The number of possible bets is so long it reminds me of a “rap sheet” of a hardened criminal.

Before I get to my Super Bowl prediction, I’d like to recall a “prop bet” from my past. I was growing up “a street urchin” in the Dorchester-Mattapan section of Boston during the 1950s and early-1960s. I have to chuckle at the various nicknames we gave each other. In those days, one of the guys in “our gang,” was a guy named Mike. He was nicknamed: “The Bullion”. Mike was solid as a rock, and when we played tackle football, he was tough to bring down.

I believe it was the early-1960s. “The Bullion” needed to drive down to Massapequa Park, L.I., NY to attend a cousin’s birthday party. As I recall, Mike was leaving Saturday afternoon, sleeping at his cousin’s house, and then attending the birthday party the next day.

But here’s the rub. Mike, even then, was the consummate gambler. He would have a bet on every sport he ever participated in. Although this trip to a cousin’s birthday was not a sport, Mike was always looking for ways to “make a buck” on any enterprise he was involved in.

Here was his bet: That four hours or less after he left Boston he would arrive, by car, within the city limits of NYC. Would anybody take his action? To this day, almost 60 years later, I’m not sure if anyone in our group took him up on his betting proposal. One of the difficult aspects was that it would, in that day and age, be difficult to determine if Mike were actually making, I assume from a pay phone, a call from within NYC limits.

Enough digression. I don’t want to lead you on about the winner of next Sunday’s Super Bowl, but I have not finalized my thoughts on that topic. All I can say is that I’m a Patriots rooter.

Yet, I’m willing to go out on the limb… To walk the plank, as they used to say, when it comes to the over-under. But first, like a geometry problem, let’s present, at least as I last checked, what is called: The Given (you know, those three triangular dots). Last I saw the over-under was: 57. Now that figure is higher than any recent Super Bowl. Yet, I am – I don’t say these words, lightly – “powerfully motivated” to bet “the over”. Why?
Those indoor stadia, i.e., Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz, are fast-tracks. No wind. No intense heat. No cold. No frozen turf. In my opinion, it’s like playing football in a vacuum.

Further, the Patriots and Rams are two high-powered offenses. Both Brady and Goff are excellent passers. They both have an array of excellent receivers to catch the football. Both teams also have solid running backs, e.g., Anderson, Gurley, Michel, White, Burkhead, etc.

If either team, in my opinion, has a weakness, it’s in their pass defense. I believe both teams’ pass defenses are capable of being “shredded”. In this Super Bowl, we could see what might be labelled “an aerial circus”. I believe it could come down to the team who has possession of the ball in the last two minutes.

One final point. Both the Rams and Patriots have excellent place-kickers. The Rams have Greg Zuerlein. Zuerlein connected on a 48-yarder to send the NFL Championship game into overtime. He won it with a 57-yarder – with plenty to spare - to send the Rams to the Super Bowl. I should mention that Zuerlein was wearing a boot on his left, non-kicking foot, earlier in the week. Much ado about nothing? That’s what the Rams are saying. Yet, as a kicker, all the parts have to work perfectly because you’re “planting” that left foot (no give “on the rug”) before you swing your right foot.

In the same vein, the Patriots have an outstanding kicker of their own, Stephen Gostkowski. He’s also capable of putting the ball through the uprights from long distances.

In fact, I would not be surprised that if either team crosses into their opponent’s half of the 50-yard line, one of their options is a field-goal try.

In conclusion: That's why I believe strongly that both teams’ scores will combine in this year’s Super Bowl to eclipse 57 total points.

[elhelmete]

Weather had zero apparent impact on the NE-KC game as far as scoring.

[Teach]

... and how many points were scored in that game.

[king kong]

I would like the fins and sawbucks from crooked bowling matches @ livingstons alleys on sunday pms

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by Teach

... and how many points were scored in that game.

Well yeah that is my point. Didn't you and others claim frigid weather would severely limit scoring?

[Teach]

You are right, Elhelmete. I believed the Patriots would win; yet I predicted a low-scoring game based on the temperatures. That didn't pan out.

[Teach]

I’m ready to make my Super Bowl prediction. I’m picking the Patriots. The last I looked, the line was nearly “pick’em”.

Here’s my thinking. If I were Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels, I would continue with the game-plan that helped the Patriots win both of their playoff games. Admittedly, the game against the Chiefs was much tighter.

That is, if the Patriots win the coin-toss, receive the kick-off and chew up the clock. In both playoff games, that consumed half of the first quarter. Keep the Rams offense off the field as much as possible.

I would suggest that the Patriots establish the run with their trio of backs, Michel, White and Burkhead. James Develin, the Brown graduate, and “Gronk” (it would be great if he could make a handful of receptions) have provided excellent blocking.

When Tom Brady does go to the air, I’d keep the passes short and crisp. No more than 2.5 seconds from snap to release. The “Unsung Heroes,” the Patriots offensive line, must continue to protect Brady. To keep the pocket clean. The Saints had a good deal of success over the middle and with sideline routes in their NFC Championship game with the Rams. Those may be the places to go. I should note that Brady must be careful not to get his passes tipped.

I should mention that the Rams have both an excellent defense front and outstanding linebackers. The Rams must be kept guessing. The Patriots must be methodical.

If there’s a Rams weakness, I believe it’s in their secondary. The Patriots must be on the alert, in my opinion, for the man I call “The Assassin,” Nickell Robey-Coleman. Some of the stuff he pulls on the football field would be considered an A&B on the street, e.g., the helmet-to-helmet stuff and unnecessary roughness, etc. If he does do it, I hope the refs call it.

Further, I believe Brady can have a very effective day, passing. Yet, the Patriots should establish the run. In my opinion, flanker screens, draws, delays, etc. would help. Anything to keep the Rams defense off-balance.

As for the Rams, they’re no pushovers. The big mystery going into the Super Bowl is Todd Gurley. He was used so sparingly in the NFC Championship game. I don’t believe that will be the case in the Super Bowl. One explanation I read said that Rams Coach, Sean McVay, was concerned about the Saints defensive ends. McVay opted instead to go with running back C.J. Anderson, “The Human Bowling Ball”. He’s more of a North-South runner. Grind it out up the middle. What Woody Hayes called: “Three yards and a cloud of dust” (although I doubt you’ll see much dust in Atlanta).

If Anderson is in the backfield, it’s likely one of three things will happen: (1) He takes a handoff from Goff and carries it up the middle; (2) Goff’s play-action (causing the def. line and linebackers to “pinch” in) with Anderson is used to disguise a pass play. Anderson then stays in to block; and (3) Anderson, after the play-action, circles around or “hangs around” up the middle and becomes a “safety-valve” receiver.

As for Gurley, he’s more of threat to sweep the ends. If he gets outside, he is most dangerous. The Patriots must do everything possible to string out the play. To prevent Gurley from turning up-field. By the way, I don’t see Gurley to be as good a pass-protection back, nor a pass-catcher as Anderson.

As for the Rams, Jared Goff, “Mr. Perfect,” is an excellent passer. During the 2018 season, Goff threw 32 TD passes, but he was intercepted 12 times. Four of those interceptions came against the Chicago Bears, a game in which the Rams lost, 15-6.

The Patriots have to be careful not to let Goff get into a rhythm. Once he gets rolling, Goff can complete five or six passes in a row. I don’t see Goff as much of a threat to run. He has rushed in every game he’s played; yet the yard pick-ups are minimal. He’s not the type of quarterback who takes off on long-distance scampers. Certainly not a Patrick Mahomes.

As stated, if the Patriots have a weakness, I believe it’s in their secondary. That is why the Patriots defensive line and linebackers must put pressure on Goff. If he has time to sit back there all day, he’ll find receivers. Stunts, schemes, blitzes, etc. should, in my opinion, be part of the Patriots defensive game-plan.

The Patriots must be on the lookout for flanker reverses to left where Goff fakes to the running back and pitches back to a looping wide receiver. Oh, the Patriots must be aware of the Rams using “gadget” plays such as the one that punter Johnny Hekker used to get a first-down against the Saints at a critical time in ball-game.

Finally, for some Patriots players, i.e., “Gronk,” this is their last chance at “The Big Dance”. Even Tom Brady, who plans to continue playing next season, may not get another chance. Many Patriots players have been here, before. They shouldn’t be awed. They know what it’s all about.

One final point, it could get mighty warm in a domed stadium. It is important to stay hydrated. To stay fresh.

In conclusion, I’m picking the Patriots to win in what I predict will be a high-scoring Super Bowl LIII.