easiest top 6 i've ever had before KD draw

[boys at tosconova]

easiest top 6 I've ever had. I really wonder how much I will change (if any) once we find out the draw.


forte
tapit twice

2 must use horses

it get's a lil dicey after this. but for me there's still a pecking order


veryfying
kings barn
mange/two phils

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

easiest top 6 I've ever had. I really wonder how much I will change (if any) once we find out the draw.


forte
tapit twice

2 must use horses

it get's a lil dicey after this. but for me there's still a pecking order


veryfying
kings barn
mange/two phils

I did not like the stretch drives that both your top two had to endure in their final prep.

they are young....... recovery might not be a problem

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I did not like the stretch drives that both your top two had to endure in their final prep.

they are young....... recovery might not be a problem

what do these two sentences even mean?

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

what do these two sentences even mean?

Really?

Your top 2 picks both had very long stretch drives going all out to win. They are young horses who can recover quickly, but at low odds neither would get any money from me in the Derby. At least not on top.

Tapit “Trice” had an especially tough head to head duel. I’m sure the connections didn’t want to see that.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Really?

Your top 2 picks both had very long stretch drives going all out to win. They are young horses who can recover quickly, but at low odds neither would get any money from me in the Derby. At least not on top.

Tapit “Trice” had an especially tough head to head duel. I’m sure the connections didn’t want to see that.

to say you don't like them because "you" think they were used too hard is foolish.

if you enter a million dollar race you sure as hell are gonna try to win it. especially when you're best in class.

thing is tt is still learning how to race and really hasn't had a clean trip yet. yet he still rolls by. the extra distance will help both as well. it's scary how much it might help forte......one of these horses might be good enough to win the TC as well.

if you leave either out expect to rip up tickets

[lamboguy]

one thing for sure is that the race will be loaded with great trainers, including Youichi Kuroiwa.

Todd Pletcher doesn't make too many mistakes lately. Brad Cox has a terrific program. Ken Mcpeak is tough as well. add in the guys coming from California and this has the makings of being a great race. if TWO PHILS can handle going from synthetic to regular dirt, he will be right there.

it will be interesting to see how the horses train over the Churchill surface. you can always read the past performances and guess from there. but keep in mind, past performances only can tell you what the horse did, not what they are going to do.

[f2tornado]

It's shaping up to be a good race. We have some legit chalks, solid mid-priced horses, and perhaps a legit bomber or two.

I liked how Forte ran wide throughout and still found some legs late. I have not seen the sheets figure but it had to have been very strong. Tapit Trice and Verifying finished strong at Keeneland. Tapit looked a little headstrong in the stretch and still got up. Angel of Empire has my favorite Raise A Native sire line and looks to be ignored once again. Kingsbarns could be way better than let on in Lousiana and Disarm closed well against slow fractions, but needs a gate. Hard to draw a line out of fast running finishers at Santa Anita. I like the potential upside of Mandarin should he secure a gate. Practical probably needs a perfect trip to be in the picture. That's not likely.

I've got Forte, Kinsbarns, and Tapit covered in the future pools at solid odds. I might throw something at Angel as a hedge at this point.

[CheckMark]

Final Odds of Winners L10 years
2022: 80-1 10+C Rich Strike
2021: 12-1 5C medina Spirit 27-1 8C mandaloun
2020: 8-1 3C Authentic
2019: 9/2 2C maximum security 65-1 10+C Country House
2018: 3-1* Justify
2017: 9/2* Always Dreaming
2016: 2-1* Nyquist
2015: 3-1* American Pharoah
2014: 5/2* California Chrome
2013: 5-1* Orb

The favourites between 2013-2018 won but then the average odds of the winner between 2019-2022 was 26.1 (counting the ones who crossed the line 1st) and (after DQ's) 45.0

It seems like this year we will be back on the favourites bandwagon with looming large Forte being that potential favourite on Derby Day but be cautious as we might get another upset this year- maybe a Japan derby this year? Who knows!

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

one thing for sure is that the race will be loaded with great trainers, including Youichi Kuroiwa.

Todd Pletcher doesn't make too many mistakes lately. Brad Cox has a terrific program. Ken Mcpeak is tough as well. add in the guys coming from California and this has the makings of being a great race. if TWO PHILS can handle going from synthetic to regular dirt, he will be right there.

it will be interesting to see how the horses train over the Churchill surface. you can always read the past performances and guess from there. but keep in mind, past performances only can tell you what the horse did, not what they are going to do.

Very good long-term observations.
In fact, I recall that one of the reasons I thought Funny Cide stood out 20 years ago was its amazing 5F workout just prior to the Derby.

[boys at tosconova]

I'm putting verifying on the top line of must use as well.

after that there's hope but there's still questions with Phil, barn and mange.

it's not that either could step up, it's just cloudy with them. Phil will get bet heavily. I just feel like I'm going to piss away money with him. his dirt races don't really put him in the 1/2 mix and it's way too easy to be enamored with the ruby.

barn has done everything right. but the horse just seems 2nd fiddle and he'll also be penalized for not going faster. seems like to many he'll be a no respect horse. seems unwise to penalize even though many will

as for mange...no foundation whatsoever. seems optimistic, but he is improving and good also be in good position with verifying and barn up close.

[CheckMark]

Here are my Fair Odds for the current KY Derby Leaderboard FWIW
Note I am 1000% bad at this so take these lines with a grain of salt: Literally

#1 Forte 2-1
#2 Practical Move 5-1
#3 Angel of Empire 6-1
#4 Tapit Trice 8-1
#5 Two Phil's 8-1
#6 Lord Miles 12-1
#7 Derma Sotogake (JPN) 12-1
#8 Kingsbarns 20-1
#9 Raise Cain 30-1
#10 Rocket Can 30-1
#11 Hit Show 30-1
#12 Confidence Game 30-1
#13 Verifying 30-1
#14 Sun Thunder 30-1
#15 Wild On Ice 30-1
#16 Mage 50-1
#17 Blazing Sevens 50-1
#18 Reincarnate 50-1
#19 Jace's Road 50-1
#20 Skinner 50-1
AE: #21 Cyclone Mischief 50-1

[boys at tosconova]

I could see these as being close to what they'll be

#1 Forte 2-1
#2 Practical Move 6-1
#3 Angel of Empire 6-1
#4 Tapit Trice 4-1
#5 Two Phil's 10-1
#7 Derma Sotogake (JPN) 5-1
#8 Kingsbarns 10-1
#13 Verifying 10-1
#16 Mage 15-1

[Nitro]

I was a bit surprised by the comments about Tapit Thrice posted on the Thoroughbred Daily News’:

“Despite the victory, the overall takeaway is that Tapit Thrice’s loop-the-group tactics simply don’t align with the profiles of recent Derby winners. Eight of the last nine Derbies have been won by horses racing right up front or just off the lead.”

I don’t recall what the track conditions were like in each of the last 9 Derbies, and I’m not someone who puts a lot of credence on limited statistical information, but in this case that information standing on its own merits some consideration.

[woodbinepmi]

Meaningless to make a line before the draw.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I was a bit surprised by the comments about Tapit Thrice posted on the Thoroughbred Daily News’:

I don’t recall what the track conditions were like in each of the last 9 Derbies, and I’m not someone who puts a lot of credence on limited statistical information, but in this case that information standing on its own merits some consideration.

Well Fwiw Nitro here are some stats I thought you might want to look at
Its good to have a historical profile on the Derby since you can always recall what happened in the past and compare it to the future. Not too challenging to make it just takes time and patience.

Here are the last 10 Derby winners with their track conditions and running styles
22: Fast Closer/S
21: Fast Front/E for Medina Early Presser/E-P for Mandaloun
20: Fast Front/E
19: Sloppy (S) Front/E for Maximum Presser/P for Country House
18: Sloppy (S) Front/E
17: Wet-Fast Front/E
16: Fast Front/E
15: Fast Early Presser/E-P
14: Fast Front/E
13: Sloppy Sealed (S) Closer/S