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07-11-2018, 02:30 PM
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#76
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grits
Here's a question for you, Jay, and it is clear what the rule states. No doubt.
How do you know that Leanna Williford DOES NOT have her trainer's license?
Give it some thought. She has been doing this for over 20 years. Maybe, I'm wrong, but not all trainers especially females want to venture out on their own. Some are quite comfortable where they are.
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I know she does have her trainers license. Why she has been a assistant for that long really does not matter to me. As they say, different strokes for different folks. If that is what she wants to do, fine with me. What they have done is legal and within the rules as they are written. She is the trainer of record for the horses, but she is not venturing out on her own. These horses will go back to racing under Mott's name as soon as the suspension is over, and I believe that is today.
Give this some thought, why is the rule worded this way?
IMO, it is this way because the state of New York can say to the public "Look how tough we are on people that break our rules. We suspended the trainer and fined him."
But in reality, there is no suspension and the only thing that happened was a small fine. And it reduces and almost negates the effect of all drug violations.
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07-11-2018, 02:34 PM
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#77
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
It was all the combinations involving FF in the win spot. But we've been told that these computer groups don't focus on a single horse in the win spot. They supposedly play the "percentage game".
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So, they are just impossibly accurate handicappers? We are to believe that this had NOTHING, NADA, ZILCH, ZERO involvement from the 55% winning trainer (connections) but instead a computer program that mysteriously ferets out value (of the 5-2 nature) on only the winning horse and to the tune of $150k give or take? And, by the way, has been doing this consistently for many months, rarely to get it wrong? Sorry, I'm very skeptical this is the whole (or correct) story.
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07-11-2018, 02:36 PM
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#78
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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3YO Division leaders
1. Justify (may be done due to incentive and injury)
2. Firenze Fire
3. Good Magic
4.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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07-11-2018, 02:37 PM
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#79
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
It was all the combinations involving FF in the win spot. But we've been told that these computer groups don't focus on a single horse in the win spot. They supposedly play the "percentage game".
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The runner up dropped late in odds too, as did the longshot O'Brien horse. And this despite the big money on Firenze Fire. So they did bet more than one horse.
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07-11-2018, 02:43 PM
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#80
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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KENTUCKY DERBY FORM NOTES: FIRENZE FIRE 
Firenze Fire
Debut MSW 5f - Broke in 2nd, chased the leader while moving well, took over mid stretch while on the wrong lead to win.
2nd start G3 Sanford 6f - mid pack early, moving well, entered stretch on wrong lead, tackled the leader, switched to proper lead finished well to win.
3rd start G1 Hopeful S. 7f - Broke on top, tracking inside while 3rd, entered the stretch on the wrong lead, stayed on the wrong lead for a flat 4th.
4th start G1 Champagne 1M - Settled back near the rear of the mid-pack, fast pace, moving advanced under his own power approaching far turn, fanned wide, swept to the lead to win on the wrong lead.
5th start G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile - Raced mid pack, moved well enough with the flow of the race, did not change leads and weakened.
6th start $150 Jerome 1M - Stalked near the rear, good response, entered the stretch on the wrong lead, changed leads, won an extended duel.
7th start G3 Whithers 1 1/8M - Relaxed early near mid-pack, eager inside to move up to the leaders, chased the winner, changed leads smoothly for a willing 2nd.
8th start G3 Gotham 1M - Mid pack, raced in company as the field bunched up, momentum slowed slightly approaching the far turn in traffic, changed leads well, even finish.
9th start 2 Wood Memorial 1 1/8M - Broke near the front but settled near the back, fast pace, some progress approaching the far turn, changed leads well, flattened out.
Final thoughts - Firenze Fire is unlikely to contend.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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07-11-2018, 02:43 PM
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#81
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
The runner up dropped late in odds too, as did the longshot O'Brien horse. And this despite the big money on Firenze Fire. So they did bet more than one horse.
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Is it okay if I call you on the phone in 5 minutes?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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07-11-2018, 02:49 PM
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#82
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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This doesnt feel like a CRW drop, yes we see late odds drops on combinations just about everyday.
This feels like a betting coup, a horse so sure to run well above his established form that people sent in hundreds of thousands of dollars in bets at the last second.
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07-11-2018, 02:50 PM
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#83
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
This doesnt feel like a CRW drop, yes we see late odds drops on combinations just about everyday.
This feels like a betting coup, a horse so sure to run well above his established form that people sent in hundreds of thousands of dollars in bets at the last second.
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The weird amounts of many of the bets in the article that was posted sure feels like a CRW team.
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07-11-2018, 02:51 PM
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#84
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Is it okay if I call you on the phone in 5 minutes?
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Sure.
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07-11-2018, 02:56 PM
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#85
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
The weird amounts of many of the bets in the article that was posted sure feels like a CRW team.
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It may have been done with computers, but I dont think its one of the every day companies who make the plays, this feels much more targeted. When else on a major race day have you seen odds like that drop so substantially?
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07-11-2018, 03:27 PM
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#86
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
It may have been done with computers, but I dont think its one of the every day companies who make the plays, this feels much more targeted. When else on a major race day have you seen odds like that drop so substantially?
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Who knows what is going on really? It is certainly feasible that these teams have deals with trainers and owners. Nothing would surprise me any more.
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07-11-2018, 03:28 PM
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#87
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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no reason it can't be both
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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07-11-2018, 03:46 PM
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#88
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Virginia
Posts: 2
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Does anyone have access to the double and/or P3 will pays for the race? I am curious to see what the winner's odds were in those pools compared to the win odds.
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07-11-2018, 04:03 PM
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#89
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Who knows what is going on really? It is certainly feasible that these teams have deals with trainers and owners. Nothing would surprise me any more.
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Could it be that Jason Servis heads his own betting syndicate...as a side-job?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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07-11-2018, 04:05 PM
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#90
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Could it be that Jason Servis heads his own betting syndicate...as a side-job?
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No, he's bewildered by all the talk. Nothing to see here. He probably doesn't even know people bet on the races.
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