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08-19-2020, 02:31 PM
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#16
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,872
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Do whales depend on the timing or do they do it themselves, thus making the tracks current position more profitable?
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They use the DATA provided.
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08-19-2020, 03:07 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,257
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Jeff,
If I understand you correctly, you are saying that a 2nd-place horse 5 lengths back WHEN THE WINNER CROSSES THE WIRE should show as 5 lengths back.
Doesn't this create a problem if the horse that was 5 lengths back actually finishes 3rd?
#1 - Wins
#2 - 2nd 5 lengths back
#3 - 3rd 5.5 lengths back
But the actual finish is #1, #3, #2.
How does that reconcile?
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Dave,
No. You do understand what I posted at all.
When I posted the words " If the horses are not where they should be" (without the quotes) I meant, after using video editing software to freeze recorded track video when the nose of the winner breaks the plane of the finish line at the mirror, and then rewinding the video by the amount of published final time for the race, if the lead horse is not at (or really close to) the end of the runup where race timing begins - you'll know right then and there that published final time for the race is off.
Link to the TimeformUS Blog where CJ described the procedure --
Time for a Better Back-Up System: A Horse Racing Video Replay Timing Tutorial:
https://timeformusblog.com/2018/12/1...ming-tutorial/
-jp
.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
Last edited by Jeff P; 08-19-2020 at 03:16 PM.
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08-19-2020, 03:55 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,257
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Jeff,
If I understand you correctly, you are saying that a 2nd-place horse 5 lengths back WHEN THE WINNER CROSSES THE WIRE should show as 5 lengths back.
Doesn't this create a problem if the horse that was 5 lengths back actually finishes 3rd?
#1 - Wins
#2 - 2nd 5 lengths back
#3 - 3rd 5.5 lengths back
But the actual finish is #1, #3, #2.
How does that reconcile?
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No. You did not understand what I posted at all.
When I posted the words " LOOK where the horses are" and " If the horses are not where they should be" (without the quotes) I meant:
After using video editing software to freeze recorded track video when the nose of the winner breaks the plane of the finish line at the mirror, and then rewinding the video by the amount of published final time for the race:
If the lead horse is not at (or really close to) the end of the runup where race timing begins - you'll know right then and there that published final time for the race is off.
Link to the TimeformUS Blog where CJ described the procedure --
Time for a Better Back-Up System: A Horse Racing Video Replay Timing Tutorial:
https://timeformusblog.com/2018/12/1...ming-tutorial/
-jp
.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
Last edited by Jeff P; 08-19-2020 at 03:58 PM.
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08-19-2020, 03:56 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 456
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As long as we're on the subject, why can't tracks report the actual finishing time of all the horses, rather than beaten lengths?
If they leave the photo-finish camera running until all the horses have crossed the wire, the "photo" gives you the finishing times for all the horses to the millisecond, since the horizontal axis is time. All you have to do is measure the distance and do a bit of math.
And even if you're not that fancy, you could position a regular, reasonably high-speed camera on the finish line and then step the video to get the times.
I'm all for high-tech solutions, but seems to me that cameras, not satellites, are the gadgets to use.
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08-19-2020, 04:31 PM
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#20
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,446
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Andy Beyer was talking about this on At the Races today - second hour.
Very interesting interview.
Randy Moss is now video timing ALL the races at all the GMAX tracks, with a full time assistant. He reported that after doing for a while, at least 30% of the races were off by up to 5 points. Either too fast or too slow.
The morons who made this system seem to have the opinion that a couple of fifths either way is no big deal! And apparently Equibase is going along with them.
EB is going to kill racing with this 100% STUPID business model.
CJ got a hats off from Andy for his diligence in this black eye and exposition of complete incompetence by the racing industry.
Funny, in passing, Andy said the timing at SA this winter was terrible.
All these years after he wrote is landmark article on racing being run by morons, and all the game has done is hire MORE of them.
SA cheer up, if your are an idiot, have no math skills, no integrity, no honor, there is a carrier for YOU in Horse Racing - the industry of losers.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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08-19-2020, 07:06 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Northern California
Posts: 166
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foregoforever
As long as we're on the subject, why can't tracks report the actual finishing time of all the horses, rather than beaten lengths?
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You mean like this?
Equibase.com -> Results -> Full Charts - GPS Charts
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08-19-2020, 07:15 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 456
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MooseDog
You mean like this?
Equibase.com -> Results -> Full Charts - GPS Charts
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Well, yes, but accurately, meaning not by GPS/Trakus.
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08-19-2020, 08:18 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Melbourne Australia
Posts: 900
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
They use the DATA provided.
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Maybe some, but pretty sure most will use verified times, either their own, or one of several companies that specialise in that very thing.....verifying times.
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08-19-2020, 09:42 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Siro’s
Posts: 242
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Andy Beyer was talking about this on At the Races today - second hour.
Very interesting interview.
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For anyone interested, I went to Steve Byk's website and the broadcast is not archived yet.
However, he just tweeted about 20 minutes ago that the Beyer segment will be coming up on the live replay around 10pm (Eastern), so you can catch it now if you want.
Last edited by QuarterCrack; 08-19-2020 at 09:44 PM.
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08-19-2020, 10:54 PM
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#25
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,872
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steveb
Maybe some, but pretty sure most will use verified times, either their own, or one of several companies that specialise in that very thing.....verifying times.
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That could be true, and it is very logical.
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08-20-2020, 07:17 AM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,105
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I will take the other side of the accuracy argument. I don't think errors of a tick or two at the frequency described are going to change a lot of my betting decisions.
If you are willing to project numbers based on the runners in the individual race you can make up times (there was not time for the 6th at Btp yesterday so I made one up) and get useable numbers. To the extent that your figures contain an element of same race projection things will tend to partially self-correct.
I use figures to project what figure a horse will run today. There is a pretty wide distribution of reasonably likely outcomes and outcomes of a few points more or less are not that much different in frequency.
Extra variability due to measurement error in the making of the original figure will change the distribution of outcomes but I would expect the change to be pretty small.
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08-20-2020, 08:54 AM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjk
I will take the other side of the accuracy argument. I don't think errors of a tick or two at the frequency described are going to change a lot of my betting decisions.
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The same is true for me.
I say this often, but if you have a set of the 4 most highly regarded speed figures for any race card, you will see a LOT of differences that exceed 1 or 2 fifths. At a certain point you come to realize that the times of races matter a lot, but there are so many subjective and technical difficulties in making figures they are often not very accurate.
I think figures are best used to identify contenders (because huge errors are far less frequent) than to separate horses that are similar. They are especially useful when the quality of the horses involved is not very clear.
All that said, it's preposterous that in 2020 they can't even time the races properly.
Why throw another money wrench into a process that is already dealing with wind, track maintenance, pace, run up, rail settings, weather changes, creating accurate time charts for equating distances, subjective analysis of the outcome etc...
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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08-20-2020, 02:34 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,257
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__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
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08-20-2020, 02:36 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,257
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__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
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08-20-2020, 02:53 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 242
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Why do NA bettors keep supporting this trash product? How many more instances do you need of the industry telling you that you mean nothing to them? There are better racing products out there, and if the lack of speed figures and fractions is stopping you then you're probably a losing NA bettor anyways.
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