Maiden Race Handicapping

[trying2win]

I think most of us have certain kinds of races that are our strong points. Conversely if we're honest, I think we have certain kinds of races that are our weak points. For me, my strong kind of races are claiming races for winners. One kind of races I'm weak on though, are maiden races. I generally skip these kind of races, because I generally don't know what to look for. This seems a shame, because some days when you look at a day's card, it's not unusual to see four or five maiden races listed. On those kind of days, I feel my betting opportunities are limited because of the lack of claiming races for winners.

I remember reading handicapping books, where the author advised things like:

--Don't bet maiden races with more than 3 first-times starters
--Don't bet sucker horses in maiden races. You know the kind...they might have 15 lifetime starts, with a record of 6 seconds and 5 thirds and always seem to be knocking on the door, but for whatever reason they don't want to win.
--or even don't bet maiden races at all, they're too unreliable.

I can understand the case for not betting the 'sucker horse' in maiden races. That makes good sense to avoid that kind of horse for potential win bets, or keying those kind in serial bets. However, I can see some logic in considering the 'sucker horse' in maiden races for the place slot in exactor bets, or even the place and show slots on a triactor bet.

So...what to do? I'm getting this feeling that I may be missing out on some good betting opportunities in maiden races, but I don't know how to proceed in finding some potential nice-priced winners in these type of races.

I'm curious to see how other PA members approach handicapping maiden races. What factors do you consider?


--Do you handicap maiden races the same way you would on claiming races for winnners?
--Do you give a lot of weight to trainers who have an excellent record with 1st or 2nd time starters?
--Do you take into consideration, breeding in races with some first-time starters?
--Do you only consider betting maiden race entrants who have 8 starts or less?
--Do you only consider betting maiden horses with the top 3 speed ratings in their last race?
--Do you only bet maiden horses with 4 Quirin speed points or more?

...or other factors I may not have thought of on this topic.

I appreciate any pointers you can give me. Even after all these years of handicapping, I'm still trying to learn more in certain areas. Thanks.

T2W

[dav4463]

Well-bet early in career at a higher class level is a positive for me. I like brief early speed and fade. Class seems much more important in maiden races and easier to figure out.

[trying2win]

Dave,

Thanks for the reminder on the maiden horse who is well-bet early in his career. Now that you mentioned it, I think I remember seeing some maiden race winners at Turf Paradise in years gone that had that kind of attribute. Some horses would go off at low odds on their first lifetime start, display a poor effort, then bounce back in the next race with a win. There must be a good reason for some of these horses to go off at low odds in their first lifetime start.

T2W

[sparkywowo]

A 5000 Maiden Claiming race at Mountaineer for 3 and up is a completely diffferent bird than a MSW for 2yo at Arlington Park. Depending on the tracks I play, what I look for in a Maiden race varies.

Probably the most general statement that I can make about sprints is:
1) A decent figure with some early speed is often good enough,
2) Look at turn time, if the early speed has the turn time to prevent the pressers from cutting into the margin on the turn, that is more than good enough,
3) Horses without early speed that neverless run good speed figures while rallying into the minor spots without ever challenging for the lead can be disregarded,

and some minor points:
4) A first time starter whose trainer wins a reasonable rate at a profit can be supported (1 for 3 isn't meaningful, 3 for 12 is). Watch first time starters who get some support and note particularly body language and warm up, and how they break from the gate. Some firsters can run but lose all chance when they dwell or get cut off at the start. It may not show up in the charts. All the better if they make a move at some point. An otherwise decent performance can look awful on paper if the winner gets away by 5 lengths.
5) Look at the recent charts and see if any horses that have run once or twice are coming out of "key races" wherein they made some kind of effort to challenge for the lead,
6) keep an eye on 1st Lasix, blinkers on/off etc...

I think Maiden Races are some of the most playable races because many of the horses can't run and if you find one that can run, it doesn't have anything to beat.

[trying2win]

Sparky,

Thanks for the tips. Excellent post. You pointed out some things I never thought of before when looking at maiden races.

T2W

[JackS]

T2W- Start with a few basic rules. I really do hate the word "rule" when it comes to horse racing but in your initial effort to finally break out and become a winning player with maiden races let me give you a plan.
Rules-
1. Play only 3yo's in Mdn and Mcl when the race is carded for 3up.
2.Toss all horses moving up in class today.
3.Consider tossing all horses who have not started in the last 3 weeks. (this could vary depending on the track but still probably pretty general) and does not include horses returning from a layoff.
4.In weak races , pay close attention to the first call time plus lengths behind.
The above rules are pretty fundamental and can be augmented by jockey/trainer stats. Scan the Beyer's but trust your own figs.
As with anything in handicapping ,I will and have broken every rule printed here, but I am also very aware of the danger in straying from these basic concepts... Good Luck

[trying2win]

Jack,

Thanks for your advice. I think your rule no. 2 is an especially good one. Now that I think of it, yeah...I don't recall too many maiden winners that moved up in class from their last race.

T2W

[dav4463]

I don't mind a maiden moving up in class if it is accompanied by a trainer switch or fresh claim.

[nobeyerspls]

Finding a longshot maiden is sort of like being the first to recognize value in a stock. Ruffian was 6-1 when winning her first start and her groom didn't bet her because he thought she was to fat.
Here are some longshot angles:
1. Second lifetime start.
I didn't make much money when I owned and raced but I learned a few things. One is that you can't simulate that first race with morning preps no matter how hard you try. Something will go wrong. If a horse shows that he has some talent in the AM and has a lousy first race, bet him with two hands.
2. Filllies with some time off.
See the thread I started yesterday for more on this.
3. Turf Breeding
Pay more attention to the broodmare sire than the sire. If momma handled the turf or produced runners that won on it, that's your horse.
4. Horses Changing Barns
The new guy might find the key to turn the horse around.
5. Change of Equipment
I include lasix in this category but blinkers on or off works. Of course there are many changes (tongue strap, shadow roll, bit) that aren't known to us.

I never bet any horse straight if the odds are under 7/2. With the angles noted above look for 10-1 or 20-1, the higher the better.
I don't think I answered all your questions. I never look at speed figures and I don't know what a Quirin number is.

[cnollfan]

Cheap maiden claimers, I look for lightly-raced horses dropping in class that flashed brief speed or had a trouble line against better. Good example Friday 8/19/05 was Dakota Princess, 32-1 winner of the 5th at LaD. Only start was LaBred filly MSW, 6-3, 7-8, 8-15, 8-23, "finished early," now dropping to LaBred filly maiden $10000.

This one is from the infamous Dave Powers but I like it because it goes against the grain -- professional maidens that have been close at this level but not winning and are now a big price.

I like "top jockey off" on lightly-raced maidens, and the more obscure the new jockey, the better. The point isn't that Velazquez or whoever didn't have enough confidence in the horse to ride it back, instead it is that they were lured into riding it in the first place. There's probably a story behind the horse, and even if the jockey leaves, the story remains.

I also like changes for lightly-raced cheap maidens -- blinkers, lasix, gate work, new jockey, new circuit, layoff, new distance or surface, etc.

I like longshots that have a decent pace figure for the class. I don't pay much attention to speed figures for maidens (or winners, for that matter, but especially for maidens). As a general rule, there is less passing in a maiden race than in a race for winners. The horses at the back of the pack in a race for winners are usually closers, but the horses at the back of the pack in maiden races are usually just slow.

In races for good horses, I like MSW horses that run in exactly one high-price maiden claimer and move back to MSW. All the books say tossout, so the price is good on a horse that the connections still think has potential.

I like to bet against expensive horses that drop to maiden claiming without too many tries against better. They're almost always a low price and the owner and trainer can't be more blatant about the horse having little potential.

I usually bet against seven-digit yearlings. Horse will be bet based on its price-tag. I also automatically throw out all lightly-raced maidens sired by A.P. Indy, Gone West, and Unbridled's Song. They are almost always heavily overbet.

I like first-starters with slow but steady workouts and unfashionable breeding that get some play at the windows. An unknown horse that could easily be 30-1 but is 12-1 instead might have some talent.

[frankfig]

I like to bet on horses that sold for good money at a 2yo in training sale. Say the sires fee is 10,000 and the horse sold for 70,000, it means the horse showed good speed on the track. I also like to go with young sires instead of older ones. I try to predict which sires are going to do well before there runners hit the track. I love SONGANDAPRAYER as a new sire , also BROKEN VOW is going to have some good runners.

[cnollfan]

Originally Posted by frankfig

I like to bet on horses that sold for good money at a 2yo in training sale. Say the sires fee is 10,000 and the horse sold for 70,000, it means the horse showed good speed on the track.

Agree. Would much rather back a maiden that sold for a big multiple of the stud fee than a higher-priced one that sold at a small multiple or discount.

[OTM Al]

2 big things I look for with 2nd time starters. I always give heavy consideration to a second time starter that came out of the 1 post in his first start. Doesn't matter how badly he was beaten, if it looks like he ran a pretty even race after a terrible start, he's a bet. The young ones really have a lot of problems with that 1 hole. Second, though it rarely comes up, a horse who ran his first in a stakes race and is dropping back to a regular maiden today. His trainer must have thought a lot of him to start him at a high level, so that quality coupled with a little experience can often make for a good run. These two actually combined on one horse for me a couple weeks back. Went off at 21-1 and won by a length or 2. Such a combination is rare, but it sure made the whole day right there.

[Zaf]

Great thread guys, thanx for the useful info !

ZAFONIC

[46zilzal]

TWO words: 2nd call ...velocity leader wins an inordiante number of these

MOST babies need a race or two to GET IT.