Preakness Longshots - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

OTM Al · 05-17-2005, 12:01 PM

Just wondering everyone's thinking on potential longshots for the Preakness in the wake of the derby results. Unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to play the race as I will be returning from Florida, but hopefully will at least be able to catch it in the airport. Were I betting, I would, just as in the Derby, put Alex and High Fly (if he runs) in all spots. My longshot play in filling out exotics would be Scrappy T. His name fits his style well and he seems to be on the upswing right now.

DerbyTrail · 05-17-2005, 12:31 PM

Use Greeley's Galaxy Saturday...

Valuist · 05-17-2005, 12:44 PM

I would say Greeley's Galaxy also but I have a feeling he'll be the so-called "wise guy" horse this weekend.

Maxspa · 05-17-2005, 01:14 PM

Derby Trail,
I can't help but see a strong resemblence in your picture. A long time friend and great guy from Saratoga, Bruce Jones. Am I right?
Maxspa

cj · 05-17-2005, 02:57 PM

I was a bit surprised to see the figure I gave Galloping Grocer, he looks to be rounding back to his top 2yo form, which would put him right there.

frankfig · 05-17-2005, 03:26 PM

I KNOW MOST EVERYONE HERE DOESNT THINK MUCH OF THIS HORSE , BUT I STILL BELIEVE HE IS VERY GOOD. HE DIDNT RUN A STEP IN THE DERBY, AND ALOT OF THE OTHERS HAD PRETTY HARD RACES. BLINKERS ON FOR BOBBY, LESS PACE , EDGAR , SPEED TRACK , ----------- WIRE TO WINDOW $$$$$

GMB@BP · 05-17-2005, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

I was a bit surprised to see the figure I gave Galloping Grocer, he looks to be rounding back to his top 2yo form, which would put him right there.

I mean figures are one thing, but that was accomplished against big apple dady and some other horse who would be 100/1 in here. I know it looks like an improve, but the level of competition, well its just a step up.

cj · 05-17-2005, 03:33 PM

I realize that, but the 106 he got was in the Remsen, a pretty good race even if Rockport Harbor hasn't done much since. I'm not saying he is going to win, but if he is on the board at 30-1 or 40-1, he'll be on my tickets.

OTM Al · 05-17-2005, 04:28 PM

I would have considered the Grocer for my longshot, but Scrappy T has had his number lately. I expect GG to run some nice lower end stakes races this year though

ceejay · 05-17-2005, 04:47 PM

I'm wondering if after the pace meltdown in the Derby, I wonder if some of the connections will be trying to win that race (and take back from the pace).

In other words, could we see one loose on the lead who steals it?

OTM Al · 05-17-2005, 04:57 PM

Nah. Going Wild, High Limit and Galloping Grocer should be right on the pace with High Fly sitting right back of them to keep it honest. There's still plenty of speed here.

GMB@BP · 05-17-2005, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceejay

I'm wondering if after the pace meltdown in the Derby, I wonder if some of the connections will be trying to win that race (and take back from the pace).

In other words, could we see one loose on the lead who steals it?

normally I would say yes but betweem high fly, scrappy t, galloping grocer, hals image, high limit, and maybe even greelys galaxy that there should be a very lively pace.

oh, yea going wild to boot will be winging...should be very fast.

kenwoodallpromos · 05-17-2005, 05:51 PM

Without seeing M/L or posr positions, I sat Wilko. I will look at the lengths back in the SA and KY Derbies, and the odds.

Niko · 05-20-2005, 02:23 AM

Sun King if I'm lucky. Not sure he can rate behind a fast pace and not the best post but heh, I can hope.

the Bid · 05-20-2005, 12:12 PM

Scrappy T is the sharpest longshot. He's got positional speed and has learned to rate. He ran well all winter against good horses. His run in the Wood was deceptive. His saddle slipped at Bejarano couldn't really control him. He was the only horse to make a run at Bellamy Road. If you are still a beliver in BR, you have to like Scrappy T. He can handle off going and he's done most of his running at 2 turns. His sire won the old Handicap Triple Crown and his broodmare sire won the Derby.
Of the longshots, he's the only one I see as a real contender.

Grocer couldn't get past slow locals in the sire stakes in NY last time. Those are useful horses but not classic (or even graded stakes type) 3yo's. He was in perfect position at the top of the lane and floundered all the way down the long stretch at Aqu.
Malibu Moonshine looks like a nice local horse but hasn't ever really jumped up. He should like mud though.
Noble Causeway and Sun King were horrible in the Derby but Zito got Louis Quatorze to rebound so who knows...
hal's Image is a pace factor. High Limit with blinkers could be "Spanish Chestnut" in a dark brown suit. Look for him to be lit up. he's the only Derby/Preakness starter to have a fast work between the two races.
Going Wild can only go one way, to the front. Greeley's Galaxy worked this morning (Fri) pretty fast. Look for him to be sharp early. He appeared to like the mud, as his breeding suggests.

I like High Fly, Alex and Scrappy T. High Fly was close to a hot pace off a 5 week layoff in the derby. he ran on what I felt was the worst part of the track and was still in contention at the top of the stretch. Alex is just a super horse who always fires. he doesn't seem to know how not to run well. Scrappy is the live longshot.

BTW, I like a straight (maybe WPS) bet on Scrappy. He's being bandied about as an 'underneath" horse by alot of the talking heads. Even if he get bet heavily in the exotics, he may offer a very nice price in the straight pools. If we have more bombs away tomorrow the P/S prices could be great.