Who's your number 1?

[Elysium Stables]

Well now that the Lex is over and its pretty clear who is going to be running for the roses in may I was just curious who everyones number 1 and ONLY 1 pick is? It's to easy to pick 5 in a 20 horse field . Of course a few may change after the posts are drawn on Wed(i think its wed), but I doubt that will have any serious effect. So all you racing fans show you aren't as fickle as it seems and go with your favorite and of course a few reasons why you are right, and a few of your misgivings to be used as excuses later .

My #1, which should be no suprise since I was in the paddock at the last race with him and will be again in Ky.

Afleet Alex.

1. W/O a doubt the smartest and classiest horse I have ever come in contact with, and I have know quite a few.
2. Love how he drew away in 11 and change in the last 1/8 in Arkansas.
3. Throwing out his handicapped preformance in the rebel he is the most consistent horse in the feild been 1 2 in all other races and those 2 shoulda been 1's
...which brings me to my only concern
The Jockey, don't get me wrong, I like Rose on him over anyone else except maybe Velasqeuz but its a tough, if not the toughest race to ride. Do i think Rose can get it done? absolutely I don't worry so much about Rose riding a poor race, I am 99% sure he won't, I just worry about him being outridden.

ok, who's next?

[Tee]

My #1 ran 2nd to your #1 last out

[cj]

Greeley's Galaxy, fingers crossed that he is going to get in the field.

[rastajenk]

Bellamy Road. I'm a Beyer True Believer.

Plus, I'm amused when the naysayers say, on one hand, that he hasn't faced pressure like he will face in the Derb....but on the other hand, every other prep race has been filled with cheap speed bums, false favorites, unimpressive types, and other perjorative descriptors. I guess the Blue Grass is generally conceded to be the best (as in deepest) prep; is there really much doubt if you put Bellamy in that race he doesn't win by many? Where is all this class hiding out there that's going to rise up and put him in his place?

I don't mind picking a favorite; this one seems worthy.

[OTM Al]

#1 Alex
#2 High Fly
#3 Bandini

Now I notice you only wanted a single...well, that would be Alex without a doubt

[Secretariat]

I was looking at Steve Roman's site, and some interesting Derby things relating to Dosage figs there.

Obviously a dosage over 4 is pretty much common knowledge of a questionable contender. Wilko's is 7.00.

But looking at winners since 1970 shows only 5 horses who were able to win with total dosage points under 20.

Canoneo II - 16 (DI=1.13)
Gato del Sol - 18 (DI=1.77)
Sunday Silence - 16 (DI=2.56)
Lil E Tee -16 (DI=3.00)
Monarchos - 18 (DI=1.40)

If one eliminates any horse with less than 16 dosage points one gets all winners, and if one only plays those from 16-19 with a DI under 2.00 one gets all but two of the Derbies.

Which made me look at the contenders thus year.

Afleet Alex only has 14 dosage points
Buzzards Bay only has 10 dosage points
High Limit has only 14 dosage points
Rockport Harbor has only 12 dosage points
Sun King has only 14 dosage points
Wilko has only 16 dosage points, but a 7.00 DI
Greeley's Galazy has 20 dosage points but a 4.00 DI

Eliminating that group leaves Bandini, Bellamy Road, High Fly and Noble Causeway. Of this group Bandini shows no Solid-Professional points in his dosage, and an inferior speeds to Bellamy Road. Horses with no Solid-Professional points in dosage index have won only 7 of the last 35 Derbies and Bandini's DI=3.57 which isn't the best. However, Bandini and Noble Causeway are contenders. But my pick is Bellamy Road. Not a big price horse, but a P/NP breeding line and was weighted in the Experimental Free Handicap whiel Bandini and noble Causeway were not.

So far now Bellamy Road is my pick, but still researching due to an anticipated lower price on him.

[bentoutofshape]

c-o-n-s-o-l-i-d-a-t-o-r my #1 @ a price $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
lets not forget the jockey had orders in the last to try and come off
the pace from further back.The horse did not like it he like being just off,
or right within the leaders round the turns.This is a profesional race horse
legitamit excuse in last.
This horse is sitting on a huge effort especially that he will get the 1 1/4
most of these will be tiring while this one will be opening up.To me has a great running style for this race.one run closers tend to get bothered by the tiring horses ,speedballs tend to weaken do to pressure and track bias,and then theres a classy stalker like (consolidator)...
Good luck to everyone I feeling super about this pick why not hammer the
supers hes my key/bcdefg/bcdefgh/bcdefghij .

[kev]

Bentout I'm with you 100%, CONSOLIDATOR I'll say Mike B. will make him 25-1 and that's what we'll get. He'll run alittle better than he did two races back, and that will give him a change to hit the board.

[kingfin66]

Originally Posted by bentoutofshape

c-o-n-s-o-l-i-d-a-t-o-r my #1 @ a price $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
lets not forget the jockey had orders in the last to try and come off
the pace from further back.The horse did not like it he like being just off,
or right within the leaders round the turns.This is a profesional race horse
legitamit excuse in last.
This horse is sitting on a huge effort especially that he will get the 1 1/4
most of these will be tiring while this one will be opening up.To me has a great running style for this race.one run closers tend to get bothered by the tiring horses ,speedballs tend to weaken do to pressure and track bias,and then theres a classy stalker like (consolidator)...
Good luck to everyone I feeling super about this pick why not hammer the
supers hes my key/bcdefg/bcdefgh/bcdefghij .

Consolidator was my pick before the Blue Grass. I would have liked to have seen a better performance out of him. Not a win necessarily, but a better performance. Where did you hear that he was supposed to be taken back? I seemed to have missed that.

It's hard to tell how much the tracks affect horses performances in the preps. If he can run back to his 2 race back performance then he can be a factor. I still like him some.

[formula_2002]

I picked the winner last year.
Neighbors were going to be at last years derby and asked who I liked.
I said I dont' really follow the horses, I follow numbers, but bet on anything Nick Zito may have running.

So this year the pick(S) are.

LEXINGTON, Ky. -Todd Pletcher got a third starter for the 131st Kentucky Derby when Coin Silver, a 13-1 shot under Javier Castellano, drove to a surprisingly easy victory Saturday in the $325,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland...

[cj]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

... but bet on anything Nick Zito may have running.

Umm, Zito didn't win last year?

[Bubbles]

Appears to be sufficient early speed in this field. You have Bellamy Road, Consolidator, High Limit, Rockport Harbor (if he runs), and others. The stretch-out may be a problem for these, I have a feeling once we see the fractions for the first quarter, we'll have a good idea as to who can stand the heat and who needs to get out of the kitchen.

With this in mind, I'm looking to stalkers. Afleet Alex and Bandini are very nice horses, no doubt about that, but what about High Fly? Nobody's been giving him his due respect since Bellamy Road, Bandini, and Afleet Alex won their Derby preps. This is a horse that BEAT Bandini in the Fountain of Youth, people! He also looked very professional in the Florida Derby over a good closer in Noble Causeway. Not only can this horse get it done, but you may see bettable odds on him, as the hype machine is in full gear for other horses. Anything near 8-1 may be worth a wager.

Here are my top ten horses, in order...

1) High Fly - Only benefits from the Blue Grass result.
2) Bellamy Road - Won the Wood by a street, but may find more front-end pressure in Louisville.
3) Afleet Alex - Made Flower Alley look like a maiden claimer in the Ark. Derby.
4) Bandini - Close between him and #5, but that Blue Grass win was pretty.
5) Consolidator - Front-running monster, but can he get the distance?
6) High Limit - Needs to regroup after disappointing prep race.
7) Coin Silver - New face gives Pletcher three Derby hopefuls after impressive Lexington win.
8) Noble Causeway - No shame in losing to top one at Gulfstream.
9) Sun King - Another one who needs to get back to form in the next few weeks.
10) Flower Alley - DID take the Lane's End in respectable fashion back in March.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by cj

Umm, Zito didn't win last year?

wrong neighbors...It was the Belmont

[Figman]

That's "OK" Formula2002!

The Zito publicity machine is so strong and accomodating that even racetrack publicity departments give him credit for accomplishments he has not attained. Here's a realease from Tampa Bay Downs:

http://tinyurl.com/c9acl

Only problem is that Zito is not in the Hall of Fame. However, the press will make sure that it happens this year Derby win or not.

[chickenhead]

I'll take my stand with Bandini. Fast enough, bred for the classics , intelligent prep schedule, all systems go..what is there not to like?