Mendelssohn at 8-1 vs Justify at 3-1 in KD

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by cj

I've learned not to look at segments of races to judge a horse. No segment really works in isolation unless you are trying to predict the pace and which horses might lead. Every segment in the race has some effect on those which follow it, so I prefer to look at the pieces together.

He obviously ran a very good race. The bias is the tough part to judge. I won't be dismissing him in three weeks.

I agree dominantly but the internal segments are of significance. That bias is really making it difficult to judge. Visually he looked better than all the rest. Anyway we will change our minds at least the betrayals of Judas til Derby day! Peace brother!

[papillon]

How much will US Navy Flag's Guinies Trial performance impact Mendelssohn's odds?

Given the power of recency and the poor past performances by every other UAE Derby/foriegn shipper/foriegn jockey, my thought is 8/1 might not be too far off now, esp since a good chunk are going to be thinking that US Navy Flag>Mendelssohn, and that US Navy Flag doing poorly in the BCJ and having just done poorly again reflects poorly on Mendelssohn.

Maybe something like this

Justify (Storm Cat Apollo)
Magnum Moon (Pletcher Apollo)
Good Magic (2yo Champ BCJ)
Audible (Storm Cat Pletcher)
Vino Rosso (Pletcher Wood)
Mendelssohn (Storm Cat UAE Derby)
Bolt O'ro (Lost Last Prep Musket Man)
Solomini (Lost Last Prep Musket Man)

Pletcher got his derby for this decade last year, no more for him for now.
Nyquist got the 2yo champ, BCJ, undeafeated derby winner triple 2 years ago, no more for 40 years.

So that's Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso, Audible, and Good Magic in the dumpster..

Bolt O'ro and Solomini to show and place (either order), Mendelssohn to win. Inbattle of Storm Cats, why take the one with the shorter odds and the longest curse?