Who's the Post-time Derby Favorite?

[GeTydOn]

Empire Maker was $2.50-1 in his Derby.

Bellemy Road has captured everyone's imagination. He will be the favorite regardless of whatever Rockport Harbor does.

Bellemy Road will not go off below 3-1.

[PaceAdvantage]

I agree with GTO....

Bellamy Road is going to be the favorite, and under 3-1....probably 9-5 by the time the gate opens.

Smarty Jones still had a LOT of nonbelievers coming from Arkansas and all....

This horse is a ZITO horse who won the WOOD MEMORIAL in RECORD time. This carries a LOT of weight at the windows come Derby Time.

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by NYPlayer

...I usually don't bet chalk unless I feel it's absolutely worth it, which is rare, and 4-5 versus the boys is pretty bad price-wise. Still, what does price matter or what the figs are if the horse is sick and the trainer is lying about it? Had she been 3-1, my money would still have gone down the tubes.

Price always matters as you have to make your bet before the race is run. (Well, most of us do, anyway.) At 4-5 she was a definite bad bet, and maybe even at 3-1 (certainly for me she would have been).

I think that 8-5 is way too low to take on any horse in this year's Derby.

[46zilzal]

So many three year olds get almost forgotten because they take a misstep on the way to the big dance. Remember when Unbridled had a less than stellar Blue Grass (bad trip and in tight down the strech), and the "last-line-itis" folks forgot all that quality and dimissed this one the first Satruday in May. I believe Thudner Gulch fit the same pattern. I seem to recall that his Florida Derby put in right in the thick of things, but his prep right before the Derby was not perfect, so this onE was relegated to longer odds much to the chagrin of the crowd.

[michiken]

About this time of the year I always get the similar feeling that there is a 'dark horse' who's trainer has been deliberately holding back and hiding the horses intent. Do you remember the year that Indian Charlie was so overhyped and Real Quiet won?

I wish every race that I bet had the huge field size and media blitz that comes along with the derby. With the large pools, I can see a favorite being 3-1 or 7-2 easily but I am almost for sure I will bet against him. C'mon this is the Derby!

Once we can wade the the media BS, I think we all we find some value in other horses. If Imperialism wasn't dodging traffic last year, he would of given me a better perfecta with Smarty! I just loved the way that Sea Hero won too as he brings back profitable memories.

[frankfig]

Bellamy Road will be a Big favorite,everyone knows that. But i am telling you Bandini will be second choice instead of Afleet Alex ! Public Opinion -????????Pletcher/Velasquez or Ritchey/Rose. Also FU PEG breeding on Bandini.There is NO question Bandini will be a shorter price then Af alex !!!! That you can take to the bank ! By the way i wont be betting any of the three unless Bandini drifts above 6or7-1

[Jinxed]

BANDINI. It sure doesn't mean he will win, but I think he will be the favorite. The cautious will be leery of Rose riding Afleet Alex, so I don't think he will be the favorite. Bellamy Road will be a favorite also, and well deserving.

[rastajenk]

You think Rose beat the hell out of Alex, too. When was the last time you were right? No way Bandini is even close to Bellamy in the odds column. Unless you call 5-1 or 6-1 close to 2-1 or less. I don't.

[Speed Figure]

Who cares who's the favorite, like picking who's going to be the favorite is a big deal.

[JPinMaryland]

I dont think there's anyway Bellamy Rd. goes down to 2-1; not as long as Afleet ALex is in the race.

My guess is Bellamy Rd. 3-1; Afleet Alex 4-1.

That leaves probably High Fly at 8 or 9-1; Bandini probably 10-1 or so.

If Alex was out for some reason, then maybe Bellamy Rd goes down to 2-1 or less.

[Bruddah]

It's just my hymble opinion, but I don't think Bellamy Road will finish any better than third.(show) My intuition says really no better than fourth(4th). Can we say BIG BOUNCE will be riding that horse's back on Derby Day.

[classhandicapper]

I've been told the track changed speed on the day of Bellamy Road's GP race. That accounts for the difference between the TG figure and the Beyer figure. IMHO, the Beyer figure is actually correct. B.R. blew out those weaker horses on the front end (running a pace too fast for them but OK for him) in the GP race. I'd be willing to bet anything that TG (which doesn't look at pace at all when projecting figures) assumed a slower track than Beyer did because they couldn't rationalize how slow some of the other horses behind BR had run. If you assume a slower track to pump up those other horses, you also have to assume that BR ran faster. That makes his sheet look a little better, but I think the reality is much more likely to be that Beyer got that GP race right.

[socantra]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

Who cares who's the favorite, like picking who's going to be the favorite is a big deal.

Knowing how your opponent thinks is an essential skill in any contest.

In handicapping, the crowd is your opponent and the crowd picks the favorite.


socantra...

[JPinMaryland]

YEs I agree Socan. but I've seen cogent arguments put forth that say the tote board is irrelevant!

One argument can be made that due to the time delay in tote board updates, you can never know for sure what the final odds will be...I guess.

What struck me the other day was the race with Bandini in it. Just a few minutes to post, the chalk horses were all 5-2. All three. Right? Bandini, sunking and the other one I guess. THey went off like that, as far as I recall.

But Bandini wound up getting 4-1 odds. WHich to me would seem they finished about where it should be. After all he hadnt won in stakes company yet.

But it just had me thinking as I watched it: "5-2; 5-2; 5-2. How can that be? "

[chickenhead]

Originally Posted by frankfig

Bellamy Road will be a Big favorite,everyone knows that. But i am telling you Bandini will be second choice instead of Afleet Alex ! Public Opinion -????????Pletcher/Velasquez or Ritchey/Rose. Also FU PEG breeding on Bandini.There is NO question Bandini will be a shorter price then Af alex !!!! That you can take to the bank ! By the way i wont be betting any of the three unless Bandini drifts above 6or7-1

I think they'll be something like:

1)Bellamy Road
2)Afleet Alex
3)HighFly
4)Bandini
5)High Limit


BR and AA close together 2/1-3/1...HF and BD grouped together somewhere 4/1-6/1 range, HL (and/or GG) 7/1-8/1.

No way Bandini favored over BR, monster Beyer and Wood romp, Alex is popular, big Ark Beyer and been fast for awhile now, and the crowd will give the nod to High Fly Bailey and Zito over Bandini.

Noble Causeway will be the wise guy this year, breeding and Stevens and late bloomer with the big late run in a speedy race.....