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Old 11-01-2017, 07:55 PM   #1
Robert Fischer
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Discussing Friday's Breeders Cup card

in this thread I will think out loud while going over Friday's races.

Feel free to discuss.
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Old 11-01-2017, 08:10 PM   #2
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Robert, I'd be interested in your thoughts on the Euros in Races 6 and 8.

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Old 11-01-2017, 08:31 PM   #3
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race 5 Marathon

1.ARCHANOVA - 4/1 ML, I can't see this guy winning. His last race at Belmont (Temperence Hill) was mildly interesting because of the ground loss. A case could be made for hitting the board because of that race. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2.INFOBEDAD - 12/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

3.DESTIN - 5/1 ML, Not a big fan, but in a race without much starpower, he can at least run a solid race. JCGC has excuses. If the favorite runs a dud and Destin gets a good forwardly placed trip he could be in a good position turning for home. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'B' (needs favorable trip)

4.ESTRECHADA - 3/1 ML, She looks bad to me. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely). I am slightly bothered that her morning line odds and my opinion are at such opposite ends of the spectrum. I am considering using her as a 'C' (unlikely but unknown)

5.NOBLE NICK - 12/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

6.GROUND RULES - 8/1 ML, Most likely outclassed and will simply flatten-out at the increase in distance. Last race and pattern of improvement is interesting enough to consider as a long shot. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely but unknown)

7.HARD ACES - 5/2 ML, He looks like the only real grade 2 horse in the field. If he doesn't fire, it could get interesting, but this is a standout horse. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'A' (win contender).

8.DRESSED IN HERMES - 8/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)




I may end up passing this race. On the fence. Hard Aces seems like an obvious 'Key', but I'm not crazy about it. Decision will come down to value on some of the other opinions.
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Old 11-01-2017, 10:50 PM   #4
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race 6 Juv Fillies Turf

1.BEST PERFORMANCE - 12/1 ML, More of a price to hit the board than a win contender. Two back ran slightly against the grain. Last time ran nearly as well as the Chad Brown filly. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2.HAPPILY - 9/2 ML, Strong record. Looked good visually last time in the French race. The only question I can even come up with is whether she will like a harder surface. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'A' (win contender).

3.NOW YOU'RE TALKING - 30/1 ML, Looks like a tremendous value. She will love the mile distance. Probably wants to run counter clockwise(not a major factor in my decision, but could be a nice bonus). As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'B' (needs favorable trip). Tempted to key in vertical exotics.

4.MADELINE - 20/1 ML, Love that she's stretching out to a mile in the US at a big price. She's not as good as NOW YOU'RE TALKING, but she's also a good value. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown).

5.ULTIMA D - 12/1 ML, Big step up in class. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

6.ORBULUTION - 20/1 ML, Shouldn't be in the race. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

7.CAPLA TEMPTRESS - 6/1 ML, Short on value if ml is true. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely) Would include underneath on coverage verticals.

8.SIGNIFICANT FORM - 8/1 ML, Solid horse from a top barn. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'B' (needs favorable trip).

9.FATALE BERE - 9/1 ML, All out to win minor stake last time. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

10.SEPTEMBER - 6/1 ML, Solid horse from a top barn. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'B' (needs favorable trip).

11.RUSHING FALL - 7/2 ML, Good kick @ Kee. Probably Brown's 'a' horse. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'A' (win contender).

12.DIXIE MOON - 20/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

13.JULIET CAPULET - 12/1 ML, She will be a fair price and is a little bit scary. As far as win/multis I have her rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown).

14.MOON DASH - 15/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)

two 'a's , three 'b's, and two 'c's... This is a deep race.
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Old 11-01-2017, 11:29 PM   #5
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I'm a little interested in Ultima D. Seems to have some talent, speed could be dangerous. Agree with you on most else there tho.
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Old 11-01-2017, 11:43 PM   #6
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r7 Dirt Mile

1. IRON FIST - 12/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2. GIANT EXPECTATIONS - 12/1 ML, Looks to be outclassed. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

3. SHARP AZTECA - 9/2 ML, fast horse, supertrainer. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'A' (win contender)

4. GATO DEL ORO - 30/1 ML, Shouldn't be in the race. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

5. AWESOME SLEW - 12/1 ML, Good closer in good form. Good chance to hit the board. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

6. MOR SPIRIT - 3/1 ML, fast horse, supertrainer. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'A' (win contender)

7. CUPID - 8/1 ML, fast horse, supertrainer. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown)

8. ACCELERATE - 7/2 ML, keyed up and down in verticals last year @ 40-1... this year not much value. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'B' (needs favorable trip).

9. BATTLE OF MIDWAY - 10/1 ML, Cool horse, great value in the Derby. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

10. PRACTICAL JOKE - 6/1 ML, So tired of hearing about how he needs one turn, that if I don't win, then I hope he wins. Then grabs a microphone and magically speaks, saying how much he loved the two turns today. Shouldn't be fast enough, but he's a good horse in good form for an elite trainer. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown)
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Old 11-01-2017, 11:54 PM   #7
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We're in agreement on the top 4 in Race 6 (that might be a source of concern for you! ) I have them ranked:

Rushing Fall
Happily
Significant Form
September

Followed by:

Orbolution
Best Performance

Orbolution is #2 in Bris Prime Power, and I can't figure out why unless they feel the pace will set up for her strong late run. Happily and September aren't even on Bris' radar, apparently. Presumably that's the lack of speed data.
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Old 11-02-2017, 12:18 PM   #8
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race 8 Juvenile Turf

1. MENDELSSOHN - 8/1 ML, I wasn't crazy about this one. Tempted to make a 'c' for the connections. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2. UNTAMED DOMAIN - 8/1 ML, Doesn't seem to be very talented. Tempted to make a 'c' for the connections. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

3. SANDS OF MALI - 30/1 ML, I love that he's stretching out. I love that he's coming off of a troubled trip where he was bet. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'C' (unlikely unknown) May consider an underneath key in a tri or super.

4. CATHOLIC BOY - 12/1 ML, Solid horse. I'm guessing that he's not top class. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

5. BECKFORD - 8/1 ML, Love that he's stretching out at a good price, but I'm not sure if he's a top contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown)

6. MASAR - 9/2 ML, I don't have a good understanding of this horse. Qatar Prix didn't wow me. Great company lines. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown). I may upgrade to a 'B'

7. JAMES GARFIELD - 6/1 ML, I don't have a good understanding of this horse. Great company lines. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely unknown). I may upgrade to a 'B'

8. VOTING CONTROL - 8/1 ML, Loved Pilgrim Stakes effort. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'A' (win contender)

9. ENCUMBERED - 15/1 ML, Seems to be outclassed here. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

10. FLAMEAWAY -20/1 ML, As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

11. SNAPPER SINCLAIR - 15/1 ML, Intriguing. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

12. HEMP HEMP HURRAY - 8/1 ML, This horse bothers me. I'm tempted to call this one an unlikely-unknown 'c'. Only thing I don't love is his pressing style, that has come from sprints. Deeper waters. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

13. MY BOY JACK - 8/1 ML, Nice run in the Zuma Beach. Figures to be outclassed today. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

14. RAJASINGHE - 30/ML, Seems to be one of the weaker foreign shippers. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)
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Old 11-02-2017, 12:32 PM   #9
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r9 Distaff

A's = 7 PARADISE WOODS, 5 ELATE, 4 ABEL TASMAN, 2 STELLAR WIND

C = 6 FOREVER UNBRIDLED


tough race, you've got some trip possibilities(P.Woods), and several good ones. No need to get too specific.
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Old 11-02-2017, 01:20 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
1.ARCHANOVA - 4/1 ML, I can't see this guy winning. His last race at Belmont (Temperence Hill) was mildly interesting because of the ground loss. A case could be made for hitting the board because of that race. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

2.INFOBEDAD - 12/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

3.DESTIN - 5/1 ML, Not a big fan, but in a race without much starpower, he can at least run a solid race. JCGC has excuses. If the favorite runs a dud and Destin gets a good forwardly placed trip he could be in a good position turning for home. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'B' (needs favorable trip)

4.ESTRECHADA - 3/1 ML, She looks bad to me. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely). I am slightly bothered that her morning line odds and my opinion are at such opposite ends of the spectrum. I am considering using her as a 'C' (unlikely but unknown)

5.NOBLE NICK - 12/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)

6.GROUND RULES - 8/1 ML, Most likely outclassed and will simply flatten-out at the increase in distance. Last race and pattern of improvement is interesting enough to consider as a long shot. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely but unknown)

7.HARD ACES - 5/2 ML, He looks like the only real grade 2 horse in the field. If he doesn't fire, it could get interesting, but this is a standout horse. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'A' (win contender).

8.DRESSED IN HERMES - 8/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)




I may end up passing this race. On the fence. Hard Aces seems like an obvious 'Key', but I'm not crazy about it. Decision will come down to value on some of the other opinions.
Thanks!! I was hoping someone would break this race down. I agree with your analysis with the exception of the #1. I fall into this trap at times weighing the people moves too much, but Landeros traveling cross county tonight to climb aboard has me intrigued. Light on class, but looks fit and could be the control on the front end. If you pass the race, root for him as I'll be looking to fund the rest of the day with a win. I'll play him under HARD ACES as well.
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Old 11-02-2017, 01:26 PM   #11
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1.BEST PERFORMANCE - 12/1 ML, More of a price to hit the board than a win contender. Two back ran slightly against the grain. Last time ran nearly as well as the Chad Brown filly. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely)


Feel lasix should boost her chances ... bit under the radar

Trainer Clement 20/24 ITM with 2 year olds on turf ... problem is he is usually a no show in BC races I think ?


Appreciate the breakdown bro ... it helps !!!!
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Old 11-02-2017, 01:36 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mulerider View Post
We're in agreement on the top 4 in Race 6 (that might be a source of concern for you! ) I have them ranked:

Rushing Fall
Happily
Significant Form
September

Followed by:

Orbolution
Best Performance

Orbolution is #2 in Bris Prime Power, and I can't figure out why unless they feel the pace will set up for her strong late run. Happily and September aren't even on Bris' radar, apparently. Presumably that's the lack of speed data.

Feel anything goes with the 2 yr olds and as with Orbolution ... he was bumped at the start of each of his last 2 races ... How do you handicap that ?

I feel with Pletcher ( most wins 16 ) with 2 yr olds on the turf there is great value ... Look at his odds .. 2-1 ( last race ) .... today 20-1 ...give me a break ... I'll take that shit everyday ...just my opinion ...

I agree with you bud .... throw em in the gimmicks


also love Best Performance too !!!
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Old 11-02-2017, 01:41 PM   #13
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I'm a little interested in Ultima D. Seems to have some talent, speed could be dangerous. Agree with you on most else there tho.
She is dangerous. Could certainly establish a good position and inherit a winning position entering the stretch. I'm against, but I could be wrong.
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Old 11-02-2017, 02:02 PM   #14
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When you only look at SW at 9 furlongs, she is not a very impressive horse at all. At to that a long layoff, and I wonder why they are bothering? She will not be in any of my exotics, either.
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Old 11-02-2017, 02:57 PM   #15
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When you only look at SW at 9 furlongs, she is not a very impressive horse at all. At to that a long layoff, and I wonder why they are bothering? She will not be in any of my exotics, either.
that could get you some instant value.

Wasn't Abel Tasman the one that Mike Smith rode like he(mike) was using performance enhancers last time? She should be solid if Paradise Woods doesn't control the pace...

Mor Spirit is another 'layoff' horse. Serling mentioned some workout issues following the Met (as opposed to the long intentional layoff Baffert pulled w/ Arrogate out of the Travers last year). That's another one where if you're right, you get instant value. (or if you're wrong you get instant karma )
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