JAC/DEN

[_______]

Taking? Laying?

I have a hard time imagining what would inspire Denver to continue throwing the ball in the 2nd half so I'll take the points.

This could be 80-17 but I'm not sure what would be in it for Denver to do that. it's not college ball. There's no one voting you into the championship game.

Any other thoughts?

[Bettowin]

This is the NFL and when it seems obvious it usually isn't I am not betting the game but in the couple of pools I am in I am taking Jax with the points. I think that after the Dallas game and with the next game being at Indy, Denver will take it easy. I am thinking a back door cover by Jax late with a TD when it doesn't matter

[Valuist]

I agree with ------, or the artist formerly known as ------.

What incentive is there to win by 40 points? Manning probably is already thinking about the following week's matchup against the Colts.

[Robert Fischer]

In the contest (the one that I am near last place in) I took Jags+points as my 'best bet'.

I have no clue about this game.

The most interesting thing to me will be whether 80% of the public still backs Denver, or not.

[Stillriledup]

My problem with this game is that because the spread is SO high, its actually part of the "discussion", it might be posed to players in interviews and so on and so forth. For me, that's what makes it so hard, who's to say that Manning won't "go easy" on the Jags, could they score 70 if they absolutely had to? Of course, no doubt, but will they want to embarrass another NFL team who's really down and out. Does Peyton want to kick these guys and run up the score like Belichick might want to do, or will these guys just run the ball, make the clock go fast, score a few and then kind of coast?

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I agree with ------, or the artist formerly known as ------.

What incentive is there to win by 40 points? Manning probably is already thinking about the following week's matchup against the Colts.

funny you say this, as I was listening to NFL on Sirius today and they were discussing this very point. Seems players rarelyr look ahead, as they are focused on the game assignments required this week. They gave a previous year's anecdotal of an Eagles-Giants game coming in two weeks that a reporter asked whether they had the game marked on their calendars. The players seriously asked when the game was scheduled, as they didn't know it was coming up. Seems it is a fan and coaches issue more than for players.

However, they said coaches certainly look ahead, and will likely add a vanilla offense to a game like Jacksonville and anyone who is remotely dinged or important will be removed at the drop of a hat.

I'd take the under on points, although I have no faith in Jacksonville.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by tucker6

funny you say this, as I was listening to NFL on Sirius today and they were discussing this very point. Seems players rarelyr look ahead, as they are focused on the game assignments required this week. They gave a previous year's anecdotal of an Eagles-Giants game coming in two weeks that a reporter asked whether they had the game marked on their calendars. The players seriously asked when the game was scheduled, as they didn't know it was coming up. Seems it is a fan and coaches issue more than for players.

However, they said coaches certainly look ahead, and will likely add a vanilla offense to a game like Jacksonville and anyone who is remotely dinged or important will be removed at the drop of a hat.

I'd take the under on points, although I have no faith in Jacksonville.

I don't know if I'd go under. Really depends on how hard Manning hits the pedal, but I do believe Denver has some issues with their secondary. They just got lit up for 500 plus pass yards and 48 points. Obviously Jax doesn't have the firepower of Romo, Bryant, Witten etc but it would not be shocking if they put up 17-20. Oakland put up 21 on them. Jax now has Blackmon back. Opposing QBs have a 92 QB rating against Denver so all is not perfect on the Broncos.

[horses4courses]

Here's a blog from LV publication Gaming Today.
They state that out of 8 NFL favorites of at least 21 points, only one covered.
The money line looks pretty safe, though.......

http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/9/t/725999.aspx

[Hosshead]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I don't know if I'd go under. Really depends on how hard Manning hits the pedal, but I do believe Denver has some issues with their secondary. They just got lit up for 500 plus pass yards and 48 points. Obviously Jax doesn't have the firepower of Romo, Bryant, Witten etc but it would not be shocking if they put up 17-20. Oakland put up 21 on them. Jax now has Blackmon back. Opposing QBs have a 92 QB rating against Denver so all is not perfect on the Broncos.

This is what I've been saying too.
Denver's secondary is not good (like last year), and even worse when the overrated Champ Baily returns soon.
As Valuist said, Oakland started getting to them in the second half too.

Too bad Peyton isn't on a "complete" team.
Their secondary looked like they didn't know what they were doing, but were finally saved by one good play.
Peyton has to make sure they score a huge amount of points to make up for their bad defensive secondary, and that will eventually run short.
Especially when Peyton gets a strong pass rush.

Against the Jags, if the Broncos can get a large enough lead, maybe Manning won't play the entire 2nd half.

[Rookies]

Unless the Broncos plane crashes, you've got to take the Blitzkrieg here.

Only prob, up 42-3 early in the 3rd., are all the Bronco starts yanked to prevent injury? Second stringers the rest of the way.

[wiffleball whizz]

7000 for 100.........I'd do it in a heartbeat

[Valuist]

The Seattle line of -19 or so vs the Jags made more sense a few weeks ago. Pete Carroll is more the type of coach to run up the score. I don't see John Fox that same way. I don't believe Denver is any more than 2.5 to 3 points better than Seattle.

I also think the Jags showed improvement last week. It was a 27-20 game on the road (granted, against a bad Rams team) with 6 minutes to play. Blackmon was suspended for the first 4 games and he's back. Blackmon and Shorts are legit WRs, they still have Jones-Drew. Henne has to be an upgrade over Gabbert, who's just brutal.

The teams strength of schedule may have skewed perception a bit: The Jags have played 3 of their first 5 on the road and they've faced a 5-0 team (KC) and two 4-1 teams (Seattle and Indy). Denver has faced three teams from the weak NFC East as well as Oakland and Baltimore.

[Speed Figure]

I would take Denver 1st half.

[Valuist]

This game has gone way too mainstream. I was listening to a classic rock station in the car and THEY were talking about the Jax/Broncos spread.

All this has to make the Jags angry. They maybe are short in talent compared to other NFL teams, but I can't help think you might get a focused effort and play hard for 60 minutes. Nobody likes to be a laughingstock.

[Bettowin]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

I would take Denver 1st half.

Now we're talking! Bovada not showing a first half line yet but I am thinking if it is 16 or less I'll take it.