Call me crazy, but.....

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I've wanted to comment on this perspective for some time now, and throw it out there for you data base guys to analyze.

For a few years now, I've noticed a numerous examples of long priced winners at certain tracks are listed on the morning line at odds of 12-1. My question would be this: Would it be possible to do a search and find out if individual tracks could show a positive ROI over the course of a meet by merely wagering a flat bet wager on every horse that goes to post that was 12-1 on the morning line? Let's make the test track Turfway Park, though there are 3 other tracks, IMHO, that show an even greater propensity for its usefulness.

The simple rational is this; should one contender win on the card, you will usually show a profit on the day, especially if the 12-1 ML is overlayed, and multiple winners on card can be exampled today at Turfway Park where there were 6 horses on the card that went to post with a ML of 12-1. Three of those horses won with WIN payouts of $31.00, $24.00, & $70.20. That $12 wager today yielded a profit of $112.20!

It is my contention that certain writers of Morning Lines perceive conditions in a way that lend themselves to placing viable contenders at a morning line of 12-1. Not 10-1, 15-1, 8-1, or 20-1..... but 12-1.

I'm just furthering Mark Cramer's search of the automatic wager. If anyone wants to run the numbers, please respond to this thread. The rest of you can just bet the theory. thus rendering it useless.

One thing is certain, you will notice those winning 12-1 ML shots in a different light after reading this.

[DanG]

Originally Posted by Hajck Hillstrom

I've wanted to comment on this perspective for some time now, and throw it out there for you data base guys to analyze.

It is my contention that certain writers of Morning Lines perceive conditions in a way that lend themselves to placing viable contenders at a morning line of 12-1. Not 10-1, 15-1, 8-1, or 20-1..... but 12-1.

If anyone wants to run the numbers, please respond to this thread. The rest of you can just bet the theory. thus rendering it useless.

Hopefully Doug this means your betting again!

12-1 MLO; as ordered by track: (last 2 years and minimum sample size 100)

TRK	MLO	Plays	Wins	Win	WROI	I.V.
 ALB	12	284	11	4%	$0.44	0.32
 AP	12	1401	90	6%	$0.94	0.53
 AQU	12	654	40	6%	$0.87	0.50
 AQUi	12	997	50	5%	$0.59	0.41
 ARP	12	293	21	7%	$0.84	0.59
 BEL	12	1431	87	6%	$0.85	0.50
 BEU	12	1023	45	4%	$0.77	0.36
 BM	12	656	34	5%	$0.58	0.42
 BOI	12	148	16	11%	$0.76	0.89
 BRD	12	274	18	7%	$1.08	0.54
 CBY	12	674	24	4%	$0.54	0.29
 CD	12	1235	51	4%	$0.69	0.34
 CLS	12	224	11	5%	$0.52	0.40
 CNL	12	440	25	6%	$0.74	0.47
 CRC	12	2808	146	5%	$0.83	0.43
 CT	12	3716	153	4%	$0.67	0.34
 DED	12	1433	78	5%	$0.74	0.45
 DEL	12	1166	56	5%	$0.65	0.39
 DMR	12	639	35	5%	$0.75	0.45
 ELP	12	426	24	6%	$0.84	0.46
 EMD	12	726	37	5%	$0.68	0.42
 EVD	12	2062	92	4%	$0.63	0.37
 FE	12	2302	158	7%	$0.85	0.56
 FG	12	1564	64	4%	$0.62	0.34
 FL	12	1272	69	5%	$0.83	0.44
 FMT	12	194	15	8%	$0.79	0.63
 FON	12	511	19	4%	$0.43	0.30
 FP	12	679	36	5%	$0.92	0.43
 FPX	12	236	17	7%	$1.04	0.59
 GG	12	1379	60	4%	$0.74	0.36
 GLD	12	277	18	6%	$0.58	0.53
 GP	12	1971	105	5%	$0.78	0.44
 HAW	12	1332	72	5%	$0.74	0.44
 HOL	12	1183	64	5%	$0.75	0.44
 HOO	12	359	18	5%	$0.50	0.41
 HOU	12	672	28	4%	$0.74	0.34
 HST	12	718	35	5%	$0.85	0.40
 IND	12	604	32	5%	$0.64	0.43
 KEE	12	591	29	5%	$0.63	0.40
 LA	12	340	12	4%	$0.69	0.29
 LAD	12	1404	72	5%	$0.81	0.42
 LBG	12	348	15	4%	$0.36	0.35
 LNN	12	407	20	5%	$0.60	0.40
 LRL	12	1310	74	6%	$0.74	0.46
 LS	12	898	49	5%	$0.68	0.45
 MED	12	319	12	4%	$0.73	0.31
 MNR	12	2889	126	4%	$0.72	0.36
 MTH	12	745	38	5%	$0.89	0.42
 NP	12	497	37	7%	$0.80	0.61
 OP	12	891	49	5%	$0.73	0.45
 PEN	12	2162	116	5%	$0.71	0.44
 PHA	12	3535	215	6%	$0.75	0.50
 PID	12	523	30	6%	$0.89	0.47
 PIM	12	323	20	6%	$0.77	0.51
 PLN	12	111	7	6%	$0.74	0.52
 PM	12	456	15	3%	$0.45	0.27
 PNL	12	154	11	7%	$0.51	0.58
 PRM	12	1052	51	5%	$0.61	0.40
 RD	12	1094	61	6%	$0.61	0.46
 RET	12	1214	65	5%	$0.57	0.44
 RP	12	835	49	6%	$0.66	0.48
 RUI	12	250	12	5%	$0.76	0.39
 SA	12	1651	83	5%	$0.75	0.41
 SAR	12	649	43	7%	$1.06	0.54
 SR	12	134	6	4%	$0.77	0.37
 SRP	12	267	13	5%	$0.49	0.40
 STP	12	477	33	7%	$0.88	0.57
 SUF	12	892	50	6%	$0.75	0.46
 SUN	12	1056	46	4%	$0.81	0.36
 TAM	12	1679	87	5%	$0.73	0.42
 TDN	12	1583	46	3%	$0.57	0.24
 TP	12	1706	87	5%	$0.77	0.42
 TUP	12	1668	63	4%	$0.62	0.31
 WDS	12	117	7	6%	$1.24	0.49
 WO	12	4639	295	6%	$0.81	0.52
 WRD	12	482	19	4%	$0.43	0.32
 YAV	12	382	24	6%	$0.76	0.51
 ZIA	12	416	33	8%	$1.32	0.65

A personal favorite; >= 30-1 MLO:

TRK	MLO	Plays	Wins	Win	WROI	I.V.
 AP	>=30	867	11	1%	$0.66	0.10
 AQU	>=30	394	3	1%	$0.28	0.06
 AQUi	>=30	681	8	1%	$0.44	0.10
 ASD	>=30	417	4	1%	$0.31	0.08
 BEL	>=30	1043	6	1%	$0.27	0.05
 BM	>=30	174	3	2%	$0.74	0.14
 CBY	>=30	137	1	1%	$0.37	0.06
 CD	>=30	585	5	1%	$0.26	0.07
 CNL	>=30	242	2	1%	$0.26	0.07
 CRC	>=30	248	0	0%	$0.00	0.00
 CT	>=30	201	1	0%	$0.27	0.04
 DED	>=30	1196	13	1%	$0.40	0.09
 DMR	>=30	328	2	1%	$0.33	0.05
 EVD	>=30	1739	16	1%	$0.37	0.08
 FE	>=30	295	2	1%	$0.10	0.06
 FG	>=30	495	2	0%	$0.21	0.03
 FP	>=30	172	1	1%	$0.16	0.05
 FPX	>=30	283	3	1%	$0.35	0.09
 GG	>=30	413	2	0%	$0.24	0.04
 GP	>=30	299	2	1%	$0.71	0.05
 HAW	>=30	372	3	1%	$0.39	0.07
 HOL	>=30	668	9	1%	$0.56	0.11
 KEE	>=30	371	5	1%	$0.58	0.11
 LA	>=30	408	3	1%	$0.52	0.06
 LAD	>=30	1668	17	1%	$0.49	0.08
 LRL	>=30	1403	11	1%	$0.29	0.06
 LS	>=30	1354	10	1%	$0.31	0.06
 MNR	>=30	2647	30	1%	$0.50	0.09
 NP	>=30	380	8	2%	$0.58	0.17
 OP	>=30	626	4	1%	$0.36	0.05
 PEN	>=30	2428	27	1%	$0.49	0.09
 PHA	>=30	781	5	1%	$0.23	0.05
 PIM	>=30	318	5	2%	$0.60	0.13
 PRM	>=30	214	0	0%	$0.00	0.00
 RET	>=30	376	4	1%	$0.34	0.09
 RP	>=30	777	13	2%	$0.48	0.14
 SA	>=30	1004	11	1%	$0.53	0.09
 SAR	>=30	339	4	1%	$0.45	0.10
 STP	>=30	129	3	2%	$0.50	0.19
 SUF	>=30	507	6	1%	$0.46	0.10
 TAM	>=30	1142	6	1%	$0.29	0.04
 TP	>=30	1002	12	1%	$0.64	0.10
 WO	>=30	471	3	1%	$0.29	0.05
 WRD	>=30	539	10	2%	$0.42	0.15

Carry on my friend…

[asH]

crazy....


hey Hajck
last race at Santa Anita still a thrill..last 3 days before today head ,nose, nose, nose ...you sure you're ready

asH

[BombsAway Bob]

Originally Posted by Hajck Hillstrom

I've wanted to comment on this perspective for some time now, and throw it out there for you data base guys to analyze.
For a few years now, I've noticed a numerous examples of long priced winners at certain tracks are listed on the morning line at odds of 12-1. My question would be this: Would it be possible to do a search and find out if individual tracks could show a positive ROI over the course of a meet by merely wagering a flat bet wager on every horse that goes to post that was 12-1 on the morning line? Let's make the test track Turfway Park, though there are 3 other tracks, IMHO, that show an even greater propensity for its usefulness.
The simple rational is this; should one contender win on the card, you will usually show a profit on the day, especially if the 12-1 ML is overlayed, and multiple winners on card can be exampled today at Turfway Park where there were 6 horses on the card that went to post with a ML of 12-1. Three of those horses won with WIN payouts of $31.00, $24.00, & $70.20. That $12 wager today yielded a profit of $112.20!
It is my contention that certain writers of Morning Lines perceive conditions in a way that lend themselves to placing viable contenders at a morning line of 12-1. Not 10-1, 15-1, 8-1, or 20-1..... but 12-1.
I'm just furthering Mark Cramer's search of the automatic wager. If anyone wants to run the numbers, please respond to this thread. The rest of you can just bet the theory. thus rendering it useless.
One thing is certain, you will notice those winning 12-1 ML shots in a different light after reading this.

Hajck, You're onto something. Tonight marks Eleven months that I've been keeping notes & fractional times on LOS AL races. Ed Burgart is one of, if not the best in the biz in making morning lines & DRF "At a Glance" notes. He also has a nightly handicapping sheet @ www.losalamitos.com (where they also produce THE BEST RECAP/Betting Entry Sheet). I staple the two together, and use them to write my notes & selections on for an easy notes chart.
Anyhoo, ED gives out Pick-4 tickets on his sheet (usually in the $24-$36 range). He seldom hits the "Schrupp" Button, & will single against the ML fave (which he makes). But the thing I kept noticing was when Ed went FOUR DEEP in a Pick-4 leg. His handicap sheet includes a line or two on his top three selections in a race. But when he went 4 deep in a Pick-4 leg, it seemed his fourth choice kept winning! Always a Double-digit winner, & usually 9/2ml to 8/1ml, they ALWAYS light up a Pick-4 will-pay.
I went back, & over a 6-month period, Ed's Fourth Choice was winning at a crazy 24%! I missed two nights in Dec. due to the Ice Storm of '08, but soon I'll have a 9-month total. IMPRESSIVE..I should be betting 'em to Win, too!

[overthehill]

looking at the results it would appear that many of the 12-1 shots should have been listed at 15-1.

[asH]

Bomb's your info is more useful than ML's in general, or what Hajck is asking for. You can compare Ed's morning line to his actual picks which is very helpful in finding a live horse. the other way you wont know how or why a MLO maker uses their ML choices, which is most important to the good info equation.

[DSB]

I wouldn't get too hung up on the "hows" or "whys" of differences between a 12-1 or 15-1 in a morning line.

Very often, the only reason a ML handicapper will make a horse 15-1 is because 12-1 on the same horse would make the line go "over".

Most ML makers will assign odds to the whole field, add up the line, then make adjustments.

After making MLs for a good period of time, the gut will usually get the line very close to balanced.

Most often, it will only take an adjustment of, say, 12-1 to 15-1 to balance it.