Your biggest handicapping "mistakes"

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by sharkey11

Winning my first bet at 15 years old

I was 14, the worst part, it must have taken 20 some odd years to top the $57 win price. It was at Los Alamitos QH. I remember putting $2WPS. My step-dad showed me how to read the PPs. If memory serves me right I just remember him looking as good as the others and being a long shot. I am pretty sure he was taking a big class hike I was unaware of. My step dad took out the amount for a round of drinks and tip and said since I was a big kid with a mustache go make my own damn bets. I think my beginner's luck pissed him off. That was back when you had to stand in different lines for different wagers and he liked to play exactas.



I did not cash another ticket all night, I still returned home with an extra $25.
I think I got damn near $90 from that bet. I learned quite a bit that night.

My mom got annoyed at my step dad as I always kept pestering him about us going back. I would have tried it on my own as you could get all over the OC on 25 cents with free bus transfers, but the buses did not run late enough to catch more than a couple races. Los Al had to be 25-30 miles from where we lived.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by maddog42

My favorite play in all of racing is (like most of us) is early speed. I cash a lot of longshots with it, and have terrible losing streaks. And obviously you can't bet them all. Twice this past year 2023, I talked myself off of early speed longshots because of these long losing streaks with it. I know that is part of the game and "you can't win them all" and all that stuff. But it has cost me 2 scores in pick 5's. 15k and 28k. With either of those 2 hits and I have a winning year. My focus has been refining my method....I'm gonna go over the last six months and see if I can improve.

Me too, I honestly think strong speed biases are not as common or last as long as ages ago. Like in the pre internet era.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

Me too, I honestly think strong speed biases are not as common or last as long as ages ago. Like in the pre internet era.

They are just as common, and they last just as long. It’s just that they are now overbet.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

They are just as common, and they last just as long. It’s just that they are now overbet.

Clearly he's not a follower of America's Day at the Races.

[eldee wins]

For me it’s constructing a ticket. Especially a pick 6 ticket. I’m sure we all have been in the same situation which horses to keep on the ticket and which horses to toss off the ticket to make it more affordable. I have had 3 pick 6 tickets, on different days that I have made the wrong call. The first one was maybe 25 to 30 years ago. I came home from work and I wanted to play the Travers and they had a big pick six carryover at Delmar. So I had hit Travers for about maybe about $360 I believe,I don’t remember exactly. so I put in a nice sized ticket for the pick six but in order to make the ticket the amount of my winnings I had to toss a horse. So I remember in the fifth race at Delmar. I liked three horses, a little strong on one of them. the eighth Race also had the same scenario. I liked three horses with a little bit of a strong opinion on one of those, so it was a matter of picking a horse keying on one these races. well of I keyed on the wrong race and if I would have reversed it, I would’ve hit the ticket for $255,000. but,I did get five out of six a few times and got almost $10,000 back. Recently last year there was a big jackpot carryover at Gulfstream. I put a ticket together and then the last leg I had four horses and I had to throw one out so I threw out the Christopher Clement first time starter. I was alive with three horses coming to the wire my $42,000 payoff was in front by four lengths, but coming on and beating me By a nose was the horse I tossed out, the first time starter by Christopher Clement. And he ended up paying about 40 something thousand himself. A couple of weeks ago at Aquaduct and I was in the same situation. I bet the pick six and to make the ticket more affordable in the eighth race. It was either key on the one or the six I threw out the six. throwing out the winner again Cost me $32,000. So my biggest problem seems to be always throwing out the winner.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by eldee wins

For me it’s constructing a ticket. Especially a pick 6 ticket. I’m sure we all have been in the same situation which horses to keep on the ticket and which horses to toss off the ticket to make it more affordable. I have had 3 pick 6 tickets, on different days that I have made the wrong call. The first one was maybe 25 to 30 years ago. I came home from work and I wanted to play the Travers and they had a big pick six carryover at Delmar. So I had hit Travers for about maybe about $360 I believe,I don’t remember exactly. so I put in a nice sized ticket for the pick six but in order to make the ticket the amount of my winnings I had to toss a horse. So I remember in the fifth race at Delmar. I liked three horses, a little strong on one of them. the eighth Race also had the same scenario. I liked three horses with a little bit of a strong opinion on one of those, so it was a matter of picking a horse keying on one these races. well of I keyed on the wrong race and if I would have reversed it, I would’ve hit the ticket for $255,000. but,I did get five out of six a few times and got almost $10,000 back. Recently last year there was a big jackpot carryover at Gulfstream. I put a ticket together and then the last leg I had four horses and I had to throw one out so I threw out the Christopher Clement first time starter. I was alive with three horses coming to the wire my $42,000 payoff was in front by four lengths, but coming on and beating me By a nose was the horse I tossed out, the first time starter by Christopher Clement. And he ended up paying about 40 something thousand himself. A couple of weeks ago at Aquaduct and I was in the same situation. I bet the pick six and to make the ticket more affordable in the eighth race. It was either key on the one or the six I threw out the six. throwing out the winner again Cost me $32,000. So my biggest problem seems to be always throwing out the winner.

This is an easy problem to fix. The next time you have to make a decision to leave out a horse in order to make your pick-6 ticket more affordable...decide on which horse to eliminate...and then cross out some other horse.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

Me too, I honestly think strong speed biases are not as common or last as long as ages ago. Like in the pre internet era.

Originally Posted by thaskalos

They are just as common, and they last just as long. It’s just that they are now overbet.

I agree and disagree, I know they are over bet. At the Santa Anita winter meet that started Dec 26th, 1986 I do believe as they always started the day after Christmas around that era there was a speed bias that lasted 3-4 weeks. I am sure what we call a speed bias differs. Back then Delmar would have them regularly for weeks at a time. What I mean by speed bias is when a horse that must have the lead type who wins 20% of the time at $10k claimers jumps to $20k, then $40k and wins both going away setting fractions variant adjusted faster than usual and he had to battle for the lead.


If I was not light on cash right now I would go ring up a nice bill at DRF and start buying lifetime past performances and result charts. The biases can't be as common as the inner dirt track at the Big A is no more, Agua Caliente is long since shuttered, so is Pomona/Fairplex. One day at the inner dirt, I may have the charts somewhere in a computer file, all the pick 6 races were sprints, each one had a furious two horse battle for the lead gate to wire.


After 4 races they said on TVG only 4 live tickets remained for the Pick 6.
Game over, I had played a 2x2x2x2x2x2. Unfortunately for me there was no carryover and it was like a Wednesday, I got $36K, with those prices there were like 4 over $20, and only one favorite, that could have taken down a much larger pool.


Any of you guys saying I am full of it ever hear of a guy named Angel Cordero? He came west to race at Santa Anita. I do remember the horse's name Barb's Relic, I think it was a couple days into the 1986 winter meet.
If memory serves me correct it was his first mount of the meet and I don't think he had ever rode there. I don't know if the race was 6,6.5 or 7F. The horse has my best Beyer (I was using his methods) and also my best pace figures ( There were just shorter distance Beyers adjusted for track configuration) Off the top of my head Santa Anita was even and inner dirt was at +20 points.


I am concerned Angel will take a while to adjust to the speed favoring
track and come out stalking and lose because of the bias. I am ready to drop a $500 bomb and mind you I am 25 years old and that is close to a week's take home pay. I was by myself so no one to consult. I went over and downed a few shots of whiskey looking for courage. I settled on a $500 place bet at 5-1 doing the math on the tote board I figure at least $5 to place.


The gate opens, Angel whips the horse coming out of the gate to clear and get to the rail, game over, he paid like $12.60 to win, paid $5.60 to place.
Lack of huevos, lose out on an extra $1750. Who the hell lays into a horse right out of the gate?

[eldee wins]

That might work. For me,it’s always the wrong decision.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by eldee wins

I would’ve hit the ticket for $255,000. but,I did get five out of six a few times and got almost $10,000 back.

I guess I could embellish and say I could top you but my math says I only made a bad mistake costing me $225,000. During a speed bias at DMR somewhere probably in 1987 or 1988. I have mapped out a $128 pic six ticket.


I am thinking of taking the 100 mile drive to Delmar in the opposite direction of the 30 mile drive two work. One issue, I have a long perfect attendance streak, that is paying me a fat bonus that increases 2 OT hours a month. They used this as bribe to get better attendance since 1/2 the work force were coke or meth addicts it did not for the most part work. For people like me it was free money, no lates, no sicks, and even a vacation day needed to be put in for 2 weeks in advance. I am hearing through the grape vine it is going to be killed off. I am up to a 48 Hr OT bonus a month and at $14 an hour that is my apartment rent and truck payment after taxes on the house.


For some reason I remember numbers. $435 for the apartment $212.83 for the truck. I figure money for nothing is going away soon. I end up going to work.



Deciding factor was a co-worker, I was separated and would later get divorced, she was married to a guy on the other side of the plant, who was unfaithful. (He had a thing for white women but married a black one) We seemed to enjoy each others company, but I knew if I took her up on her offer, the coke head would probably do something stupid and cost us both our jobs.


They killed the bonuses the next month, watching the replays on KDOC channel 56 at 4-4 with good prices I am rooting against my selections.
My ticket would have hit, there was a single winner, divide that with me and some 5's and I am out $225k. I soon left that job. That money could have been life changing, DAMN IT! With $225K I could of grabbed the girl and skipped town.



At the time I could get a job anywhere. I have another, not as bad blew a shot at 4 guys splitting $140k. Maybe I will tell that one tomorrow. I have been accused of writing novels. On a PC keyboard even with sausage fingers I type quick for a man. So they are not novels to me. I have a weird style but it probably comes from long hand coding and using cut and paste and altering old programs. I would rather type a lot and use free software instead of typing a little and using the $25,000 stuff.

[zerosky]

For me, changing the 'process'
If you are winning with your current handicapping process, don't change it.
I've 'trimmed the sails' a few times only to to see it fail. Keep with what works.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by zerosky

For me, changing the 'process'
If you are winning with your current handicapping process, don't change it.
I've 'trimmed the sails' a few times only to to see it fail. Keep with what works.

Why would you change if you were winning? I would think most people would change methods if they had a long losing streak they attributed to the game changing on them.

[classhandicapper]

Biases are tougher to determine these days because because there's a more even split between dirt and turf (and now even synth) giving you smaller samples to determine what was going on. Adding to the confusion is that dirt surfaces seem to change more often during the day now than long ago (especially before major stakes) due to inconsistent track maintenance, water addition and evaporation, and surface composition. It's often a guessing game unless it's so strong everyone can see it. And if everyone can see it, the value is diminished.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Biases are tougher to determine these days because because there's a more even split between dirt and turf (and now even synth) giving you smaller samples to determine what was going on. Adding to the confusion is that dirt surfaces seem to change more often during the day now than long ago (especially before major stakes) due to inconsistent track maintenance, water addition and evaporation, and surface composition. It's often a guessing game unless it's so strong everyone can see it. And if everyone can see it, the value is diminished.

My thinking on biases-pertaining to both path and/or running style- has evolved some over just the last couple of seasons. And in ways I never expected.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by mountainman

My thinking on biases-pertaining to both path and/or running style- has evolved some over just the last couple of seasons. And in ways I never expected.

The tracks are no longer souped up to the degree they used to be. Bottom level claimer running 1:08 and change or 14 and change isn't nearly as common as it was 10 years ago. I think they came to the conclusion that crazy times weren't as appealing to the fans as they thought they were, Frankly, they weren't attractive to the casual fan that didn't appreciate them anyway. Anyway, a fairer track will always be preferred by handicappers.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

The tracks are no longer souped up to the degree they used to be. Bottom level claimer running 1:08 and change or 14 and change isn't nearly as common as it was 10 years ago. I think they came to the conclusion that crazy times weren't as appealing to the fans as they thought they were, Frankly, they weren't attractive to the casual fan that didn't appreciate them anyway. Anyway, a fairer track will always be preferred by handicappers.

Souped-up and a breakdown makes it a knee-jerk reaction by trainers and even players to immediately start finger-pointing to the surface. By now most tracks probably don't want anything to do with rolling those dice anymore. Not enough upside to posting fast times. It's cosmetic in the grand scheme of things and if they ever ditch run-ups nationally everything is going to go glacial overnight anyway.