Mark Cramer endorsed "Can't Loose Method"

[Zaf]

By the way 2 yo fillies

ZAFONIC

[andicap]

Originally posted by LurkingBettor
Ya'll,

It has to do with betting every horse to show in short fields. Some tote board reading involved too.

Not sure of all the details but if fave runs in the money, you break even.......if fave runs out, you hit the gigantic show prices. The "can't lose" refers to how to play your show bets off the tote to guarantee at least a breakeven.

Hope this helps,
LB

p.s. - Nope, I didn't purchase it. Can't imagine that the stars line up just right to place this type bet very often.

Be a great method to use with the rebate shops. If you can't lose, you win the 7-10% rebate if you bet enough. Is there a maximum you can bet on this wager without it getting all out of whack. If you can scan all the tracks real quickly, can you come up with 5 wagers a day, bet $2,000 apiece, and get a 7% rebate, that's $700 a day! I can retire on that. Even with only 3 wagers and $2,000 that's $420 a day, still a decent income.

[garyoz]

I'm not an expert on rebate shops, but I think they typically have restrictions on show bet rebates. Plus, they aren't a race track or US betting service, they can kick you off anytime they want or even stiff you.

[alysheba88]

Can someone provide proof that Cramer personally endorses this?

[lousycapperII]

Originally posted by andicap
If you can scan all the tracks real quickly, can you come up with 5 wagers a day, bet $2,000 apiece, and get a 7% rebate, that's $700 a day! I can retire on that. Even with only 3 wagers and $2,000 that's $420 a day, still a decent income.

IF IT'S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE...HMMMMMM? MAYBE THE GUY'S TRIED IT JUST LIKE THE "DR. Z" get rich quick at the track scheme and lost his A$$ at the track. Now he has to sell it to get even! If this business was so easy everybody would be as rich as Mr. Buffett, Mr. Gates or the Sultan of Brunei. SORRY IT JUST DOESN'T WORK THAT WAY. Oh well, you can dream can't you?

-LCII

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by alysheba88 (MW)
Can someone provide proof that Cramer personally endorses this?

I communicate with Mark on occasion and emailed him that I didn't really like touting in the C&X for one method or the other. He replied as follows:

"You're the second guy who was not happy about the Len Czyz thing. I'm interested in theories on mechanical bets, and also on the subject of betting into a negative pool. I could not resist those two-in-one. I responded to the reader's complaint in C&X 2, though maybe not to your liking. If you can punch any holes in the "Can't-Lose" concept, I'd love to read what you have to say."

I like Cramer so I subscribe to C&X and this is what he said in issue 2 about the Can't Lose Method, "It is a guranteed money-maker, which is as rare as horse's wings in this business...."

So he is a supporter of the method.

[Derek2U]

Amazingly I agree w/ Lousy. 2 much '04 partying or Lousy typed
something sensible? Aside from improved capping, you can EZily
gAIN ~5% ROI from 1of 2 strategies: #1 ... my odds mazimizer...
(I've written bout this ~4 times B4 here in PA) .... #2 ... Get a
Rebate from sheer volume of play much like comps at casinos.
(I've figured that a moderate casino player could get the equal
of thousands of $$$ in comps from places like Belagio etc etc ..)
But you gotta be smart & AccounT like an AccountanT would.
hehe ... once comped by the ELITE places suddenly more comps
come UR way ..... but FIRST U MUST BE CLEAR ABOUT YOUR
(a) ROI & (b) % WINNERS. YOU must make those 2 stats STABLE
even if they fluctuate wildly. ie: Figure what happens LONG RUN.
Now, on a Very personal & private note, I have developed a
great system in which the LONG RUN <=100 RACES. I cant
cope w/ LONG losing streaks. And so, here's my NewYears' stat
4 U: I CANNOT-WILL NOT play 4/10 races; of the 6/10 left, I KNOW I captured the WINNER 91% from my top 3 RATED. Is
that sufficient 2 bCome Buffet2 .... U decide.

[lousycapperII]

Originally posted by Derek2U

Now, on a Very personal & private note, I have developed a
great system in which the LONG RUN <=100 RACES. I cant
cope w/ LONG losing streaks. And so, here's my NewYears' stat
4 U: I CANNOT-WILL NOT play 4/10 races; of the 6/10 left, I KNOW I captured the WINNER 91% from my top 3 RATED. Is
that sufficient 2 bCome Buffet2 .... U decide.

Mr. D,

Please don't keep us in suspense anymore...just the facts mam', just the facts. Perhaps you could elaborate with example[s] of what you are talking about. This teenager is cornfused to say the least. No, I have not been drinking "white lightnin'" to get cornfused. Thank you.

-LCII

[PaceAdvantage]

I love these people who know without a shadow of a doubt that something doesn't work, and whoever says it works is a liar.....BUT...the ones doing the naysaying have ZERO first hand knowledge of the product....but they "know" nonetheless (yes Lousycapper II, I'm talking to you).

BTW, what happened to Lousycapper I?

[stgeorge]

Again, if this system is what it was explained to be earlier in the thread, then, in fact, it is a "no-lose" system.

As explained earlier it has to be a system that plays into "bridge-jumping" show pools. In those scenarios a minus pool is created. In other words, the track puts money into the pool, and there is more money being paid out than was bet into the pool.

I don't blame anyone for endorsing the system. It truly is "no-lose".

What's the catch? These scenarios don't happen everyday. And for the calculations to always play out in a "no-lose" way I would assume that a player would have to watch the show pools carefully right up until post time. Plenty of patience involved. Plenty.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, if racingchannel.com was to continue providing free toteboard access, one could easily write a program to monitor the pools for these types of situations....

[Tom]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage

BTW, what happened to Lousycapper I?

Upgrade?

[Tom]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Well, if racingchannel.com was to continue providing free toteboard access, one could easily write a program to monitor the pools for these types of situations....

Checked out TRC this morning, now they have no data for AQU or LRL - no contracts with tracks sayeth the message.

This is crazy....what is next form the powers that be...personal phone calls to our homes?

"Hey, fatso....yer feet stink! don't come here today-yer too ugly!"

This industry has to be one of the all time stupidest.

[lousycapperII]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
BUT...the ones doing the naysaying have ZERO first hand knowledge of the product....but they "know" nonetheless (yes Lousycapper II, I'm talking to you).

BTW, what happened to Lousycapper I?

Mr. PA,

I never claimed to know anything about the product. That's why I asked for examples to understand what he was talking about. If you are selling a product, assuming that's what he's trying do, then explain it in clear terms.

Lousycapper was chopped by the PA axe about 6 months ago.

-LCII

[Turntime]

The 'can't lose' method is legit. No, I didn't spend $55, it's been around a long time although the math behind it is not common knowledge. St George and Lurkingbettor are correct, it involves bets into negative show pools. A hypothetical example will illustrate.
Suppose in a 5 horse race with a prohibitive favorite the following amounts are bet to show on each horse:

#1 $500,000
#2 $2,000
#3 $2,000
#4 $2,000
#5 $2,000

Let's assume a 17% take. If the favorite runs in the money, there will be 3 payoffs to show of 2.10 each. If the favorite runs out of the money there will be 3 payoffs to show of $140.00 each (this can be checked by multiplying $508,000 - the total pool - by .83 to get a distribution pool of $421,640, which gets split 3 ways among the winning horses). Let's structure our bets to create a 'Can't Lose' situation:

#1 bet $500
#2,3,4,5 bet $5 on each horse

Total bet $520. If the favorite runs in the money we will collect $525 on the favorite plus $10.50 on the other 2 winning tickets for a total profit of $15.50. If the favorite runs out of the money we will collect 3 show bets worth approximately $350 each (our bets will have little effect on the payoffs in this example). for a total profit of $530. Wow! Can't lose! In this example we would obviously be rooting for the favorite to run out.
Sounds great but there are some difficulties. As St George pointed out, these scenerios don't come up often, so you'd have to be patient as well as wait till the last possible moment to make your bet. With the large influx of late money a 'can't lose' situation can turn into a marginal one in a hurry. Also, the tracks will charge back any losses incurred by the negative pool (assuming the favorite runs in) to the simulcast facility where the bet originated, so there will be a limit to how much the simulcast places will let you bet (this includes casinos in Nevada and elsewhere). The parimutuel rebate places will NOT take large show bets into negative pools, so you can forget about the rebate.
These problems aside, you can probably grind out a small to modest profit each year with this method. Personally, I'd rather spend my time trying to hit a $150 exacta. The recent trend is for tracks to knock out show wagering in short fields with a prohibitive favorite, so this method may have seen its heyday.
Hope this clarifies things.