Kentucky Derby Draw

[sandpit]

For anybody that can't watch the Derby Draw live via other means, the Courier Journal, Louisville's main newspaper, will videocast it live on their website: http://www.courier-journal.com/. The link will be near the top of the page under "More Derby Headlines"

[Skanoochies]

Thanks Sandpit, much appreciated.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Anybody else having problem with the video or is it just me?

[Stevie Belmont]

I hope El Sid gets 12 and out

[Spendabuck85]

Thanks for the link.

[ezrabrooks]

Originally Posted by Stevie Belmont

I hope El Sid gets 12 and out

You got it..

[Stevie Belmont]

Holy Cow! Number 20 for Sidney's Candy

I'll take it—it's beat the hell out of the 1 hole for him anyway...Lucky will have to work a trip out from la-la land down there...

Pros of post 20? Last one in and no horses to bother him on his right. And yea you can win from out there.

Cons? Could get stuck wide.

Hopefully a nice stalking trip outside the other speed. So far so good...

Not on record for a pick yet--hope the weather cooperates...

[GaryG]

Surprising that Battaglia said the ML was cast in stone before the draw. Does anyone think Lucky's chances are as good now as they were before the draw? I agrree Stevie, the 20 will keep SC out of trouble. Worked out well two years ago.

[cj's dad]

Originally Posted by GaryG

Surprising that Battaglia said the ML was cast in stone before the draw. Does anyone think Lucky's chances are as good now as they were before the draw? I agrree Stevie, the 20 will keep SC out of trouble. Worked out well two years ago.

Hopefully, no helicopters will be hovering overhead.

[Stevie Belmont]

I don't like the 1 hole one bit in the Kentucky Derby...

Gomez and Baffert will have to decide if they will take back and sit way off or try to jockey early for a spot. 19 others to his right coming over...

Lookin at Lucky done be unlucky

With that said he still can win...needs to work a great trip from that spot

Originally Posted by GaryG

Surprising that Battaglia said the ML was cast in stone before the draw. Does anyone think Lucky's chances are as good now as they were before the draw? I agrree Stevie, the 20 will keep SC out of trouble. Worked out well two years ago.

[miesque]

Originally Posted by Stevie Belmont

I don't like the 1 hole one bit in the Kentucky Derby...

Gomez and Baffert will have to decide if they will take back and sit way off or try to jockey early for a spot. 19 others to his right coming over...

Lookin at Lucky done be unlucky

With that said he still can win...needs to work a great trip from that spot

I agree, Post Position 1 is an awful post with 20 horses in the gate and has been quite an unproductive post position. It would appear that since 1960 only three horses have won from post position 1 with the most recent being Winning Colors in 1988, Ferdinand two years prior and then you have to go all the way back to 1963 and Chateaugay for the next winner from the rail. Both Sidney's Candy and Lookin at Lucky are going to both require masterful rides and prove themselves to be exceptional horses if either wins from their respective post position.

[Stevie Belmont]

The great thing for Sidney's Candy is he has natural speed and should get into the race nicely. Whatever happens from there on out—we will have to see...

Lookin at Lucky continues to have crappy luck. I would like to hear what Baffert has to say. He can still win, but a lot of things can go wrong down there. Remember straight ahead is the rail, Gomez will have to maneuver him around that as well. The good thing for him is he is not a speed horse...if he was he would be a dead duck...

[OFFandRUNNING10]

Originally Posted by miesque

I agree, Post Position 1 is an awful post with 20 horses in the gate and has been quite an unproductive post position. It would appear that since 1960 only three horses have won from post position 1 with the most recent being Winning Colors in 1988, Ferdinand two years prior and then you have to go all the way back to 1963 and Chateaugay for the next winner from the rail. Both Sidney's Candy and Lookin at Lucky are going to both require masterful rides and prove themselves to be exceptional horses if either wins from their respective post position.

Wasn't Winning Colors #11? or was it #8 in '88?

Will Looking at Lucky ever get a clean trip in a race. Trouble hovers over this horse like a dark cloud. Is it to late to change his name? I am pretty sure Looking at Unlucky is available. Maybe if they change it, his luck with change to.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by miesque

I agree, Post Position 1 is an awful post with 20 horses in the gate and has been quite an unproductive post position. It would appear that since 1960 only three horses have won from post position 1 with the most recent being Winning Colors in 1988, Ferdinand two years prior and then you have to go all the way back to 1963 and Chateaugay for the next winner from the rail. Both Sidney's Candy and Lookin at Lucky are going to both require masterful rides and prove themselves to be exceptional horses if either wins from their respective post position.

from what i can remember recently=
2007 = sedgefield had post 1 and had a dream trip (remember the pocket alberaDOH! turned down to make Curlin run a ton more?)
2008 = cool coal man crashed and burned as expected
2009 = west side burnie finished 9th which is probably right where, or better than expected

[nomadpat]

I've seen a lot written about how bad the #1 post is. I wonder how many of those that were in the 1 post were expected to win/less than 6/1 say? And also, does the 1 post have more of a disadvantage with field sizes requiring the auxiliary gate?