Kick me in the right direction, please!

[Foolshope]

This is going to sound dumb, but can anyone give me a kick in the pants toward some sort of data not associated with software/tote-boards that may give me clear insight into what might separate horses on a given track as contenders?

I'm talking horses with less than 12:1 M/L odds - not for big longshots. I have working angles for those horses, but right now I'm just struggling with fields filled with a bunch of close favorites. example: 7 horses in a field of 9 that are all <8:1 odds.

I am also open to the opposite of centenders in methods which may eliminate or move down certain horses from hitting the board.

I'm looking for like half data that is on Past Performances (pen & paper) or printable form datas, and then the other half maybe some sort of angle I haven't considered over the years. (something unrelated to a specific horses past performances like track bias, jockeys, trainers, etc)

I have been using and adjusting various angles in pace, lengths, speed/times, earnings, and field vs finish. I have also looked at Jockey/Trainer data but can't seem to find themes.

I have always been under the impression that there are some shady characters in this sport as well as sometimes horses are just unhealthy(injured/sick) and/or could lose their rider, etc. so I'm not looking for something that wins every time, because it doesn't exist, I just need a point in a direction where some usefulness may be, even if I have to figure it out myself. Also I'm open to any good simple math formulas that are easy to do and useful for comparing data and sorting (by hand on paper).

[Fox]

“Data not associated with software/toteboards”

That could be a tough. That’s pretty much where all the numbers and info are.

Just for the hell of it, I had a numerologist do an analysis on this years Kentucky Derby using the birthdays of all the horses, jockeys, trainers as well as some other numeric values.

Maybe you could look into that.

[Foolshope]

Originally Posted by Fox

“Data not associated with software/toteboards”

That could be a tough. That’s pretty much where all the numbers and info are.

Just for the hell of it, I had a numerologist do an analysis on this years Kentucky Derby using the birthdays of all the horses, jockeys, trainers as well as some other numeric values.

Maybe you could look into that.

This is exactly what I'm talking about!
I too have found some interesting data from that - so I am glad to hear that you have as well, I'll dive back into it ASAP.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

There's so much information out there, people think they outsmarted the crowd if they hit a $7.00 horse.

Here's a tip for the Spa

Some trainer is going to come with a barnful of horses pointed at that meet. Find him/her, bet him/her and don't even look at the pp's for his horse.

Of course if those two trainers are named Pletcher and Brown, I advise you to forget the horses and go to the Hatties chicken stand where you will think that you may never eat again after tearing through one of their sandwiches.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Foolshope

This is going to sound dumb, but can anyone give me a kick in the pants toward some sort of data not associated with software/tote-boards that may give me clear insight into what might separate horses on a given track as contenders?

I'm talking horses with less than 12:1 M/L odds - not for big longshots. I have working angles for those horses, but right now I'm just struggling with fields filled with a bunch of close favorites. example: 7 horses in a field of 9 that are all <8:1 odds.


I am also open to the opposite of centenders in methods which may eliminate or move down certain horses from hitting the board.

I'm looking for like half data that is on Past Performances (pen & paper) or printable form datas, and then the other half maybe some sort of angle I haven't considered over the years. (something unrelated to a specific horses past performances like track bias, jockeys, trainers, etc)

I have been using and adjusting various angles in pace, lengths, speed/times, earnings, and field vs finish. I have also looked at Jockey/Trainer data but can't seem to find themes.

I have always been under the impression that there are some shady characters in this sport as well as sometimes horses are just unhealthy(injured/sick) and/or could lose their rider, etc. so I'm not looking for something that wins every time, because it doesn't exist, I just need a point in a direction where some usefulness may be, even if I have to figure it out myself. Also I'm open to any good simple math formulas that are easy to do and useful for comparing data and sorting (by hand on paper).

7 horses in a field of 9 that ALL >8-1 odds? Are you talking ML or real odds, which would be tote board related?
I'm also curious why not consider horses at 15-1 or 20-1 ML's? I find a lot of my best plays in the >=12-1 ML's.
You also might want to consider DAve Schwartz's offer on how to narrow your list of contenders that is on another thread. Sounds like he wrote that just for you. And I'm not a shill for Dave in any way. It sounds like he shows you how to use your own handicapping into a list of likely contenders.

[cato]

"right now I'm just struggling with fields filled with a bunch of close favorites. example: 7 horses in a field of 9 that are all <8:1 odds"

I'm not sure i would consider horses at 5-1 up to 8-1 as close favorites but setting aside that technicality if you are looking at such a race --- relatively short field, nothing that stands out to point you to a horse and "a bunch" of close favorites -- don't you just want to pass that race?

if you are playing tournaments you may have to bet the race and if so go with the higher odds horse that is still a contender

[Foolshope]

Originally Posted by cato

"right now I'm just struggling with fields filled with a bunch of close favorites. example: 7 horses in a field of 9 that are all <8:1 odds"

I'm not sure i would consider horses at 5-1 up to 8-1 as close favorites but setting aside that technicality if you are looking at such a race --- relatively short field, nothing that stands out to point you to a horse and "a bunch" of close favorites -- don't you just want to pass that race?

if you are playing tournaments you may have to bet the race and if so go with the higher odds horse that is still a contender

Yeah exactly, I have been skipping those races but I was thinking if I can get some guidance maybe I can figure a way to at least attempt to play them.

[Foolshope]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

7 horses in a field of 9 that ALL >8-1 odds? Are you talking ML or real odds, which would be tote board related?
I'm also curious why not consider horses at 15-1 or 20-1 ML's? I find a lot of my best plays in the >=12-1 ML's.
You also might want to consider DAve Schwartz's offer on how to narrow your list of contenders that is on another thread. Sounds like he wrote that just for you. And I'm not a shill for Dave in any way. It sounds like he shows you how to use your own handicapping into a list of likely contenders.

Do you have a link to that thread?
If not I can search for it.

I have my own angle for figuring horses > 12-1, which works great for me. I just have problems with the top of my ticket sorting (who over who) unless my longshot hits first - which sometimes he does.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Foolshope

Do you have a link to that thread?
If not I can search for it.

I have my own angle for figuring horses > 12-1, which works great for me. I just have problems with the top of my ticket sorting (who over who) unless my longshot hits first - which sometimes he does.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=145134

[Foolshope]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=145134

Have you used this, and do you think it will actually apply to a pen and paper system in separating one horse over another?

Thanks!