Kentucky Derby Draw

[kenwoodallpromos]

With Endorsement out, my new longshots that the posts may help are Super Saver and Dean's Kitten.

[SMOO]

Originally Posted by nomadpat

I've seen a lot written about how bad the #1 post is. I wonder how many of those that were in the 1 post were expected to win/less than 6/1 say? And also, does the 1 post have more of a disadvantage with field sizes requiring the auxiliary gate?

19 other horses trying to squeeze to the rail before the 1st turn is not a good thing.

[miesque]

Originally Posted by OFFandRUNNING10

Wasn't Winning Colors #11? or was it #8 in '88?

Will Looking at Lucky ever get a clean trip in a race. Trouble hovers over this horse like a dark cloud. Is it to late to change his name? I am pretty sure Looking at Unlucky is available. Maybe if they change it, his luck with change to.

I just did a quickie web search to get some data and I don't have time to cross check to make sure it was accurate but I know its been quite some time since post one has had a winner in the Derby.

[miesque]

My apologies, Winning Colors was post #11 (goes to show you about , and I double checked the chart and Ferdinand was indeed post #1 back in 86.

[point given]

Originally Posted by GaryG

Surprising that Battaglia said the ML was cast in stone before the draw. Does anyone think Lucky's chances are as good now as they were before the draw? I agrree Stevie, the 20 will keep SC out of trouble. Worked out well two years ago.

I agree, he must either be getting lazy, or was under time constraints to get the line out quickly after the draw. To me Lookin at UNlucky should've moved to 5/1 and Sidney to 10/1. It looks as if the draw really compromised the faves and will make the outcome and payoff more .

[Robert Fischer]

to his favor LAL is responsive, and Gomez is one of the jockeys who will adapt and move a horse around. He could get a terrible trip and he could get a great trip we'll have to see. It does make things more interesting, and I am sure we will see articles about how bad the post is statistically, maybe with some "Lucky" puns...

[Dman]

You we're correct the first time Miesque...Winning Colors came from the 1 hole. Ferdinand also did...but in 86 not 87.

http://horseracing.about.com/od/hist...blderbywin.htm

[Dman]

With Endorsement out, my new longshots that the posts may help are Super Saver and Dean's Kitten

Curious on why Super Saver? He was the my first toss as he's never passed a horse in any race that I can see.

[miesque]

Originally Posted by Dman

You we're correct the first time Miesque...Winning Colors came from the 1 hole. Ferdinand also did...but in 86 not 87.

http://horseracing.about.com/od/hist...blderbywin.htm

That is exactly the link I ended up on first time around and figured it was correct so I didn't go through the trouble of corroborating the numbers as I really was just trying to get a gauge of how rare a victory from the rail was in the Derby. However, after OFFandRUNNING10 brought up that he thought it was #11 or #8, I did go check out the official BRIS chart at kentuckyderby.com and according to that Winning Colors

http://d3b4lt1s53xf6k.cloudfront.net...harts/1988.pdf

[Dman]

Thanks for that info!

[ddog]

Of course the weather maybe a big factor , but most of the field can not run a step.

So, i am downplaying the posts at this time(for now) as I think the good horses will move to where they want to be and then the race will start.

I just don't think the field is deep at all, lots of NO hope mile horses in here , much less Derby distance.

Ml doesn't mean jack in this race.
Set them all at 20-1 to one, who cares.


As to the 1 hole , i can see a perfect trip if he breaks just ok.

Should have a great chance to be sitting 8-9 about 5 back and then if he has anything left pick a hole and go.

[Robert Fischer]

http://www.kentuckyderby.info/postpositions.php

^THIs link gives you post position data and Each Winner's! post up to 2005(Giacomo post 10) have fun

and rememeber last 3 1 posts were Sedgfield(dreamtrip),Cool Coal Man(distanced challenged crash n burn -interestingly same pilot as Sedgefield, - Leparoux), and West Side Bernie in 2009(finishing midpack about where expected).


-------
side note, according to the general type of pp stats, Pletcher should be pleased. No, Eskendereya didn't make it to post, however he had a good draw and several runners.

[JPinMaryland]

One additional concern about the no. 20 post. if the horse has a history of "Missing the break" where he veers outward on the break, then I would be leery of post 20. This would only be a concern if he's done it in the past, not sure about this one, havent checked the PPs.

[Stevie Belmont]

Hoping for a nice clean break, and for him to get into the race a few lengths off or so all on his own. I think he will rate fine. Basically looking at the same trip as Big Brown got If all goes well. He was wide and still won. He should be 5 or 6 wide possibly. I hope no more then that. We will just have to wait and see.

The pace could be very fast, being too close could be bad news.

I still think some jocks might try to hold back a bit knowing the pace will be fast. Sometimes you expect a fast pace and it does not materialize—Only so much a jock can do if their horse is front runner and can't rate, they can't take their horse out of their game or they will be toast.

How realistic is it that Conveyance pops out to clear lead through quick fractions or moderate? He reminds me of Lion Heart with his running style.

Biggest concern is how the track will be—fast, wet, sealed, sloppy, muddy?

Muddy is the worst case scenario...

Originally Posted by JPinMaryland

One additional concern about the no. 20 post. if the horse has a history of "Missing the break" where he veers outward on the break, then I would be leery of post 20. This would only be a concern if he's done it in the past, not sure about this one, havent checked the PPs.

[GregReinhart]

Originally Posted by Stevie Belmont

Biggest concern is how the track will be—fast, wet, sealed, sloppy, muddy?

Muddy is the worst case scenario...

IF the weather forecast verifies, we're looking at a period of heavy rain (3-4 inches) from Friday night through Saturday, so basically the same as last year, if not wetter.