Solids Picks? Tweak your Wagering...

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I understand, but it is such a fundamental question...somebody here with lots of experience simply MUST know...

Stated another way...

How ______(much) can I expect to push through the windows on a yearly basis in order to expect a _______ Amount of Profit if I have a ROI rate of _______...?

Like I say, I guess I should feel pretty satisfied with myself and my competence as a horseplayer if at years' end I can net a $1500 profit, having pushed $10,000 thru the window in order to do it...

meanwhile, I would have made the track somewhere between $1500 and $2500 based on TAKEOUT alone...So the track is in a WIN/ WIN position: They empty the pockets of the losing players while turning the winning players into their "employee/ partners" who make it all possible...this is the real reason why the tracks cater to sharks and whales giving them perks and rebates....the sharks and whales make the "system" operational for the tracks...

Why is it a fundamental question? How could one possibly know the answer to your question? They would need every players personal betting records. The only thing I know for sure is that all players combined lose the track take.

What result creates satisfaction in a player varies from player to player. I don't think you should be looking for a satisfaction meter to try and gauge where you stand. Enjoy the ride wherever it takes you.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Why is it a fundamental question? How could one possibly know the answer to your question? They would need every players personal betting records. The only thing I know for sure is that all players combined lose the track take.

What result creates satisfaction in a player varies from player to player. I don't think you should be looking for a satisfaction meter to try and gauge where you stand. Enjoy the ride wherever it takes you.

Fair enough, and I do enjoy the ride but still I would like to gauge what is reasonable to expect in profits given a certain level of investment, and I would like to know this from winning players, who from many years of experience, may know ROUGHLY, how much money they are pushing through the windows yearly to obtain "X Level of Profit"...

...So I am aware that it is impossible to know the privately held finances of bettors without their consent and it is really none of my business...however, I thought that some might be aware of these parameters without, albeit, person disclosure..

....I could ask you, for example, when you did have a winning year, how much did you win versus how much it cost to get that...and you would be under no obligation to tell me...but maybe you might know what others did or what is relatively common, rule of thumb stuff, etc..

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Win Bet canceled because of odds.

Hammered to 4-1. Looked like he definitely needed a race IMO.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by jocko699

Hammered to 4-1. Looked like he definitely needed a race IMO.

And in the end, 2 selections, no win bets, and a loss of $18.00. The odds saved me $10.00. Do not be afraid to cancel a bet because you are not getting the odds you require, in the long run it will be profitable. The money lost was well positioned, getting a minimum of 16-1 in the double and, from experience, about 40-1 in the pick 3, if the 1 would have won. Time to do it again.GL

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Andy, do you think my fundamental premise (see below) is correct that the profit amount for each level of Yearly $ Play is at least satisfactory and more or less what winning players in the real world are actually bringing home year-end-wise on average...?

ROI = 1.15
Profit Margin

$1,000 = $150
$5,000 = $750
$10,000= $1,500
$20,000= $3000
$50,000= $7,500
$100,000= $15,000
$1,000,000= $150,000

No...a 15% unrebated ROI cannot be considered sustainable by the "regular" player...IMO. Yes, if you go by the ROI-claims made by some of the posters of this board...then a 15% return seems "modest" by comparison. But the truth is that a 15% ROI can make a horseplayer RICH, in pretty short order...and I have YET to meet a rich horseplayer in all my years of playing this game.

Are there "geniuses" in this game, as there are in other intellectual pursuits...who can attain the level of financial success that the rest of us can only marvel at? Have people really made MILLIONS after humble beginnings in this game? Maybe...but it's certain that this won't happen to "mere mortals" like you and me.

It's easy to fool yourself that you are "brilliant" when you play this game only occasionally. But every-day play is a very humbling experience...and the overall ROI isn't as appetizing as we would like it to be.

[Poindexter]

Vigors you have brought up a 15% roi quite a bit as if it is something a horseplayer should be able to do and basically affording you the ability to pay for Racings forms. So I want you to think about something. A player starts off with a $1000 bankroll, is able to come up with say 33.3 plays per week (with as many tracks as we have running that isn't that much). By betting 3% per play of his $1000 bankroll week 1, he should bet his entire bankroll every week. So after week 1 his bankroll goes from $1000 to $1150 typically. He then resizes this and every other week. Where do you think he goes if he is able to continue betting without knocking his odds down(a big if but this is just for illustration purposes). How about 1.43 million bucks.
So when you talk about 15% roi as if it is nothing, you might want to consider that 15% roi long run is basically the ability to print money when accompanied with any sort of volume. Every financial planner talks about the magic of compounding interest shooting for what 8% per year long run. A high volume horse player can easily bet his bankroll every week or two so over the course of a year he is betting 25 to 50 time his bankroll. So even at 5% roi he is going to make 125% to 250% of his bankroll. It is reaching that 5% roi that is the tough part(or even being profitable isn't exactly easy).

So next time you are disappointed with a 15% roi over any time period think
about what it can do for you if you can actually make that a long term roi.


Here is the 52 week by week breakdown with a 15% expected roi(obviously variance means that some weeks you might make 30 or 35% roi and others you might actually lose money, but over time this is what it should look like with a 15% roi and the ability to bet without chopping down your odds.


1000 to start
1150
1322.5
1520.875
1749.00625
2011.357188
2313.060766
2660.01988
3059.022863
3517.876292
4045.557736
4652.391396
5350.250105
6152.787621
7075.705764
8137.061629
9357.620874
10761.264
12375.45361
14231.77165
16366.53739
18821.518
21644.7457
24891.45756
28625.17619
32918.95262
37856.79551
43535.31484
50065.61207
57575.45388
66211.77196
76143.53775
87565.06841
100699.8287
115804.803
133175.5234
153151.8519
176124.6297
202543.3242
232924.8228
267863.5462
308043.0782
354249.5399
407386.9709
468495.0165
538769.269
619584.6593
712522.3582
819400.712
942310.8188
1083657.442
1246206.058
1433136.966

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Vigors you have brought up a 15% roi quite a bit as if it is something a horseplayer should be able to do and basically affording you the ability to pay for Racings forms. So I want you to think about something. A player starts off with a $1000 bankroll, is able to come up with say 33.3 plays per week (with as many tracks as we have running that isn't that much). By betting 3% per play of his $1000 bankroll week 1, he should bet his entire bankroll every week. So after week 1 his bankroll goes from $1000 to $1150 typically. He then resizes this and every other week. Where do you think he goes if he is able to continue betting without knocking his odds down(a big if but this is just for illustration purposes). How about 1.43 million bucks.
So when you talk about 15% roi as if it is nothing, you might want to consider that 15% roi long run is basically the ability to print money when accompanied with any sort of volume. Every financial planner talks about the magic of compounding interest shooting for what 8% per year long run. A high volume horse player can easily bet his bankroll every week or two so over the course of a year he is betting 25 to 50 time his bankroll. So even at 5% roi he is going to make 125% to 250% of his bankroll. It is reaching that 5% roi that is the tough part(or even being profitable isn't exactly easy).

So next time you are disappointed with a 15% roi over any time period think
about what it can do for you if you can actually make that a long term roi.


Here is the 52 week by week breakdown with a 15% expected roi(obviously variance means that some weeks you might make 30 or 35% roi and others you might actually lose money, but over time this is what it should look like with a 15% roi and the ability to bet without chopping down your odds.


1000 to start
1150
1322.5
1520.875
1749.00625
2011.357188
2313.060766
2660.01988
3059.022863
3517.876292
4045.557736
4652.391396
5350.250105
6152.787621
7075.705764
8137.061629
9357.620874
10761.264
12375.45361
14231.77165
16366.53739
18821.518
21644.7457
24891.45756
28625.17619
32918.95262
37856.79551
43535.31484
50065.61207
57575.45388
66211.77196
76143.53775
87565.06841
100699.8287
115804.803
133175.5234
153151.8519
176124.6297
202543.3242
232924.8228
267863.5462
308043.0782
354249.5399
407386.9709
468495.0165
538769.269
619584.6593
712522.3582
819400.712
942310.8188
1083657.442
1246206.058
1433136.966

WOW...!
Thank you so much for this post...this may very well change my game for the positive now that I understand the power of a compounding BANKROLL...Thanks again...!

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Vigors you have brought up a 15% roi quite a bit as if it is something a horseplayer should be able to do and basically affording you the ability to pay for Racings forms. So I want you to think about something. A player starts off with a $1000 bankroll, is able to come up with say 33.3 plays per week (with as many tracks as we have running that isn't that much). By betting 3% per play of his $1000 bankroll week 1, he should bet his entire bankroll every week. So after week 1 his bankroll goes from $1000 to $1150 typically. He then resizes this and every other week. Where do you think he goes if he is able to continue betting without knocking his odds down(a big if but this is just for illustration purposes). How about 1.43 million bucks.
So when you talk about 15% roi as if it is nothing, you might want to consider that 15% roi long run is basically the ability to print money when accompanied with any sort of volume. Every financial planner talks about the magic of compounding interest shooting for what 8% per year long run. A high volume horse player can easily bet his bankroll every week or two so over the course of a year he is betting 25 to 50 time his bankroll. So even at 5% roi he is going to make 125% to 250% of his bankroll. It is reaching that 5% roi that is the tough part(or even being profitable isn't exactly easy).

So next time you are disappointed with a 15% roi over any time period think
about what it can do for you if you can actually make that a long term roi.


Here is the 52 week by week breakdown with a 15% expected roi(obviously variance means that some weeks you might make 30 or 35% roi and others you might actually lose money, but over time this is what it should look like with a 15% roi and the ability to bet without chopping down your odds.


1000 to start
1150
1322.5
1520.875
1749.00625
2011.357188
2313.060766
2660.01988
3059.022863
3517.876292
4045.557736
4652.391396
5350.250105
6152.787621
7075.705764
8137.061629
9357.620874
10761.264
12375.45361
14231.77165
16366.53739
18821.518
21644.7457
24891.45756
28625.17619
32918.95262
37856.79551
43535.31484
50065.61207
57575.45388
66211.77196
76143.53775
87565.06841
100699.8287
115804.803
133175.5234
153151.8519
176124.6297
202543.3242
232924.8228
267863.5462
308043.0782
354249.5399
407386.9709
468495.0165
538769.269
619584.6593
712522.3582
819400.712
942310.8188
1083657.442
1246206.058
1433136.966

15% ROI on top of a 20% average take, given computerized betting and likely small pools you would be severely compromising with your 33 plays this would be near impossible.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

15% ROI on top of a 20% average take, given computerized betting and likely small pools you would be severely compromising with your 33 plays this would be near impossible.

A valid point, still the approach is compelling. We would need to chart 3% bets thru the 52 weeks of compounding bankroll to see where the diminishing returns kick-in, then perhaps go steady state from there or revert back...this method might explain some lop-sided odds effects that might work in the interests of the non-method entries...

[VigorsTheGrey]

OK, on Saturday I'll begin the new approach with a $300 bankroll...33 $9 bets. More later.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Starting this FRIDAY
OP-12Jan18R1-9
GP-12Jan18R46810
FG-12Jan18R468

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...C-OP-20180112D
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...C-GP-20180112D
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...C-FG-20180112D

Your input is appreciated.

[AltonKelsey]

I wonder how many horseplayers have turned 1000 in to 1,000,000 in a year in the last, say, 100 years.

[cato]

Only those who hit the lottery!

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

I wonder how many horseplayers have turned 1000 in to 1,000,000 in a year in the last, say, 100 years.

Well I haven't if that helps your survey

[VigorsTheGrey]

And yet if one starts with $300 and has 33 $9 bets to make, what type of wagers do you think would be the surest and safest way to make a $45 profit....I'll take a stab here: SHOW wagers. And this is why rebates are so important and the breakage also...