Bet Downs

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Has there been any significant studies about so called "Hot Horses", horses that are bet into a race either below the morning line, especially half the morning line ex. 20/1 ML now 10/1 or under close to post time. These horses odds are dropping while the favorite is also taking action.

I know the significance of the morning line is questionable for the most part due to the difficult task at hand and the fact that most tracks do not hire experts to perform this job.

From my perspective, not based on any factual basis, i have seem many of these hot horses, especially in maiden races run bad races and some not even involved in the race.

Thanks for any responses

[davew]

I do not have a database to do any 'significant studies' but found the following ...


After adjusting ML for any scratches, roughly 1/3 close below their morning line and win roughly 2/3 of the races.


For first time starters that are beaten but closed as favorites, they are worth betting again for up to 4 races until they win (even if they jump into stakes or against winners).


Someone with a database could possibly give you 'exact percentages' over 100K races ... although field size keeps shrinking

[thaskalos]

I don't have a database either...but my guess is that 90% of the horses end up at lower odds than their morning line. That's how unreliable the morning lines are. A horse figures to be 4/5...and the morning line habitually lists the horse at 9/5 or higher. And the 15/1 horses are usually listed at 6/1 or 8/1. It's really laughable.

[thaskalos]

I meant 90% of the WINNING horses...

[lamboguy]

no database either, but the horses that get bet while they are halfway around the far turn, seem to win more than 90% of the time.

[zerosky]

There is a fair amount of academic papers on this subject perhaps most notably (in the UK at least) is that by Nicholas Crafts who examined the relationship of the racecourse odds at the start of a horserace in Britain to the odds forecast in the morning racing press. He found the market to be “weakly efficient” in other words they do win more than their fair share but not enough to make a profit. Although horses bet down after a long layoff showed some promise.

The keywords to search for are (prefixed by Horse racing) market efficiency, Insider (traders, trading, knowledge), herding

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Today, like every other racing day i will see a horse the hot horse in the betting (The steamer) being bet down in the odds. Some of them will have poor or questionable form based on their past performances and many will not run a competitive race.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Today, like every other racing day i will see a horse the hot horse in the betting (The steamer) being bet down in the odds. Some of them will have poor or questionable form based on their past performances and many will not run a competitive race.

You will also see horses who will have very sharp past performances, but they will go off at suspiciously high odds. You will consider these horses to be “big overlays”…and you might even bet these horses with confidence. But if you do…it is almost a certainty that you will tear up your tickets.

In this game…one “wrong” thing doesn’t make the opposite thing “right”.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

You will also see horses who will have very sharp past performances, but they will go off at suspiciously high odds. You will consider these horses to be “big overlays”…and you might even bet these horses with confidence. But if you do…it is almost a certainty that you will tear up your tickets.

In this game…one “wrong” thing doesn’t make the opposite thing “right”.

Strong advice!!! There are so many variables in this game that will always remain unexplained.

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Has there been any significant studies about so called "Hot Horses", horses that are bet into a race either below the morning line, especially half the morning line ex. 20/1 ML now 10/1 or under close to post time. These horses odds are dropping while the favorite is also taking action.

Hi Belmont,


I do not have any hard data on the subject, but in my own records from this last year, which are mainly from NY tracks, Keeneland and Oaklawn with some Fairgrounds; horses above 8-1 morning line seldom win. I have seen horses that were 8-1 M/L go off at 20-1 or higher and win. I very seldom see a horse at M/L 20-1 go off at 8-1 and win. The only exception to this is young horses that are lightly raced. The M/L on these horses seems to be a real crap shoot.


The person to ask is David Schwartz. I just met him this week and he is a remarkably nice guy. He told me he had a database of every north american race going back 20 years. Since he is a programmer, he might be able to toss a SQL query in and come out with a real answer.

[Downhill From Here]

Closing line odds are always going to be more accurate over time than morning line odds. Closing line odds are based on the opinions of the market (many) versus the morning line odds which is the opinion of one person.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Has there been any significant studies about so called "Hot Horses", horses that are bet into a race either below the morning line, especially half the morning line ex. 20/1 ML now 10/1 or under close to post time. These horses odds are dropping while the favorite is also taking action.

I know the significance of the morning line is questionable for the most part due to the difficult task at hand and the fact that most tracks do not hire experts to perform this job.

From my perspective, not based on any factual basis, i have seem many of these hot horses, especially in maiden races run bad races and some not even involved in the race.

Thanks for any responses

You will probably find my response as helpful as any so-called statistical analysis of entries dropping from their listed M/L to their live odds value and winning or losing. That’s because the basic premise as presented is flawed on many levels from the perspective of just looking at the odds (the Win pool). I will also add that anyone responding without a thorough knowledge and experience of specific tote board activities will inevitably fail to adequately answer your questions.

The tote activities I’m referring to involve the flow of betting dollars across the board (all the viewable betting pools combined). This flow is specifically comprised of the When, Where and Volume of money being bet during a typical betting cycle. So, in essence you might already recognize that this reality totally contradicts your premise and any subsequent arguments. You also might be curious as to what the result of analyzing money flow produces and why this information is critical to understanding and utilizing it properly.

If someone respects the concept of monetary gains and limiting losses, there’s a valid reason why such an analysis can be invaluable. I realize that it may be hard to swallow for some, but I can honestly say that in general the resulting Betting Patterns provide the most objective insight into the general outcome of a race. I can only imagine that’s because people actually value their money. Over time, once these betting patterns become recognizable, they repeat themselves. Why? You might ask. Well, if for no other obvious reason, people are for the most part creatures of habit. If something works for them in a positive way, they will continue to follow suit. So, are you getting the notion that the analysis may be incorporating the human psychological aspects of betting? If so, you’re right!

I won’t belabor this clear contradiction of just viewing the odds and actual O.A. betting patterns, but I will offer a hint that may satisfy some of your curiosities. If all you’re looking at are the live odds, you might want to make a more formidable comparison. Yes, it does include the M/L, but not in the way mentioned. At about 12 to 15 minutes to post observe the Opening odds on All of the entries. Pay particular attention to those with M/L odds below 8/1 (The lower the better). Observe any entry that opens up much higher than it’s M/L. If this entry gets bet down to at least 1/2 of its opening odds (or there about) by at least 2 mins to post, it can usually be declared as a live play of interest. I say this only because in many cases to O.A. betting patterns have also confirmed this.

In conclusion I would only add that your observations about what you term a “hot horse” should only be considered a horse of interest. You must keep in mind that just because a horse is bet down doesn’t mean it’s an absolute. It only means that they could be trying. Of course, there’s risk involved as soon as the gate opens, but at least you know something that that the PP’s won’t provide. The betting patterns won’t always point to just a single horse of interest either, but because I prefer Vertical play the resulting entries of interest fall right into my wheelhouse.
GL

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

.I won’t belabor this clear contradiction of just viewing the odds and actual O.A. betting patterns, but I will offer a hint that may satisfy some of your curiosities. If all you’re looking at are the live odds, you might want to make a more formidable comparison. Yes, it does include the M/L, but not in the way mentioned. At about 12 to 15 minutes to post observe the Opening odds on All of the entries. Pay particular attention to those with M/L odds below 8/1 (The lower the better). Observe any entry that opens up much higher than it’s M/L. If this entry gets bet down to at least 1/2 of its opening odds (or there about) by at least 2 mins to post, it can usually be declared as a live play of interest. I say this only because in many cases to O.A. betting patterns have also confirmed this.

A unique example of the “formidable comparison” mentioned above just occurred in the 5th race at Evangeline Downs (Fri 6/16).

#11 had a M/L of 15/1. It opened at 53/1! An obvious throw out. Right!?

Receiving continuous action that by 2 mins to post was 16/1 and with all the late money pouring in on a few of the lower priced entries the #11 closed at 27/1. It won and paid $56.20.
Yes, this little gem occasionally occurs with long shots as well above 8/1.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Nitro

A unique example of the “formidable comparison” mentioned above just occurred in the 5th race at Evangeline Downs (Fri 6/16).

#11 had a M/L of 15/1. It opened at 53/1! An obvious throw out. Right!?

Receiving continuous action that by 2 mins to post was 16/1 and with all the late money pouring in on a few of the lower priced entries the #11 closed at 27/1. It won and paid $56.20.
Yes, this little gem occasionally occurs with long shots as well above 8/1.

I like your overall reasoning, but fail to see how you could call
this runner "a little gem". At least, through tote board monitoring.
With small pools like EVD, odds movement can be highly volatile.
"Continuous action" may have happened very rapidly.

Was there something in previous running lines that caught your attention?
As the horse never dipped below ML estimation, I'm still in the dark here.
What am I missing?

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Nitro

A unique example of the “formidable comparison” mentioned above just occurred in the 5th race at Evangeline Downs (Fri 6/16).

#11 had a M/L of 15/1. It opened at 53/1! An obvious throw out. Right!?

Receiving continuous action that by 2 mins to post was 16/1 and with all the late money pouring in on a few of the lower priced entries the #11 closed at 27/1. It won and paid $56.20.
Yes, this little gem occasionally occurs with long shots as well above 8/1.

Amwager is showing the horse did take a hit at around 13 MTP which cut the win odds in half. I know you look at all of the pools to expose minute by minute action as do I sometimes as well but at least in this particular case the win pool by itself did indicate something. I suppose I could probably use the 11 horse as a throw-in for let's say the first half of a double play based upon that particular betting action either by itself or in combination with the other factors shown on paper i.e. making second lifetime start off a trouble line for an above avg trainer.

However what I would need to see to make the race 'playable' for me though so I could dig that deep for throw-ins would be some hole in this ML favorite which was such a clearly obvious horse on paper. I know it's red boarding but why this 7 horse sits chilly at 5/2 is saying a whole lot more IMO. Granted the 1 horse did take money as a firster but this 7 horse has to be 2-1 or less in here if there's even a penny of barn money on it. Even in DDs from the prior race it's sitting at 5-2.

Then we have the replay to review and the fact that the horse figured to be on or near the lead but breaks and gets snugged back towards the rear of the field speaks volumes to me. IMO no intent to actually win here. Jock does a bunch of chicken arm flapping on the head-on which is apparently supposed to look like 'sending' while really a choke-down is in progress. Do the officials call this person in and ask why this horse wasn't even forwardly placed in here? I doubt it... and then the 'sport' can wonder why most people would much rather bet on other sports. I guess if questioned the connections can float some BS about wanting to see if he could learn to rate on the stretch out from 4.5 to 5f.

PS. Horses4Courses point is well taken. Cutting odds in half here at 13 MTP isn't a whole lot of real dollars being risked.