Stock Market Prediction

[PaceAdvantage]

Nasdaq down 5%...wowsers...

[lamboguy]

once the equity markets break in a big way, the real estate market will be right behind following the direction.. some of the rise in the markets has been the ability to use the equity in real estate as an atm.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

And just like that, yesterday's rally is GONE

That 50% retracement I talked about yesterday held like a brick wall.

This market feels like it is one bad earnings report from Armageddon. Etsy, Ebay and Amazon all mentioned consumer softening in their guidance. Nobody is really talking about that.


We have been sort of fixated on the supply side of the economy for a couple years now. I think we are soon going to be dealing with problems on the demand side.


I don't know if it's true but I've heard lately that earnings for the S&P500 are still projected to be a gain of 7% YoY. That seems very optimistic and it will need adjusting. The market will be affected accordingly.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

once the equity markets break in a big way, the real estate market will be right behind following the direction.. some of the rise in the markets has been the ability to use the equity in real estate as an atm.

The rate of interest on that atm has gone way up too. Housing IMO is in more deep shit than the stock market. At least the stock market has already had some of it's medicine. Mortgage rates are up 2 full points in like 60 days and John Q Public is too stupid to quit paying up for houses.



I honestly don't know how a more gloomy economic forecast could exist.

[lamboguy]

i really hate the way the markets went up yesterday and the way the S+P has been trading since 11 this morning..

these markets are building up cause to break in a big way to the downside. i have had some numbers way down below that even i am scared to share. this is still a perfect opportunity for those that are invested to sell and get the hell out of the way.

[BettinBilly]

Market sell off of course. Charles Payne predicted this on Fox Business, and he nailed it. I'm an investor these days more than a trader, so a market slide like this does not really hurt me short term since I'm holding, and long term it will correct to the plus side.

I took advantage of the slide of tech stocks today to just buy NVDA (NVIDIA Corp). I've been waiting for a slide in tech like today to jump on this stock. I think that artificial intelligence will continue to rise and NVDA is on top of that mountain. There may be short term losses this year, but in the next 5 years, I can only see good things for this stock.

[lamboguy]

what is really amazing is how the dollar has been going up and if it breaks 105 to the upside, the dollar can go back to the days of Clinton @ 121, and Biden ain't no Clinton...

the other side of this might be that the dollar is doing a last engulfing on the bullish side. that is where you go from the highs head down to lows and head back to highs and then break down and make new all-time lows. that is called council charting. and that is what i think is happening. the reason why i think that is because the gold price has remained extremely strong with the dollar going up and i believe gold will always be right.

Kathy Wood took in the most amount of money on Tuesday than she has ever taken in on her ARK fund. she sounds so convincing.

[BettinBilly]

Agreed, Lambo. Very convincing.

The analysts have been touting ABNB (AirBNB) for a few weeks and are screaming about it now as a must buy. They all believe it's the next Amazon (we should be so lucky, eh?). It's "how business and vacations get done" as they say now. Anyway, I took advantage of the price drop today and just bought ABNB. Get back to me in 10 years and see how I did with this and NVDA. You probably won't be able to buy a freaking toaster in 10 years that does not have a smart chip in it, so NVDA should be poised to soar.

Well, I did my part to try and turn this market sell-off around before the bell

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

[lamboguy]

the way the markets are set up these days due to the ETF's, selling begets more selling.

the sponsors of these ETF structures have sucked people into to buying them, and when the people get wrecked and sell their ETF's the operators have to sell the underlying securities.

i never understood how these markets accelerated topside so much since 2007 it never made any sense at all. they got it running because of these ETF's. that is how i can be dead wrong for 15 years. 2007 should get tested at some point now and it could easily overshoot that too!

[geroge.burns99]

The swings that these markets are doing these last 3 days....

are making me....

[Rex Phinney]

I'm still slamming the buy button on Bond funds, they are going to bottom before equities will. I said this long ago and I will stick to it, this fed will not follow through with all these raises. Once this is revealed the Bond market is going to prove oversold.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by BettinBilly

Agreed, Lambo. Very convincing.

The analysts have been touting ABNB (AirBNB) for a few weeks and are screaming about it now as a must buy. They all believe it's the next Amazon (we should be so lucky, eh?). It's "how business and vacations get done" as they say now. Anyway, I took advantage of the price drop today and just bought ABNB. Get back to me in 10 years and see how I did with this and NVDA. You probably won't be able to buy a freaking toaster in 10 years that does not have a smart chip in it, so NVDA should be poised to soar.

Well, I did my part to try and turn this market sell-off around before the bell

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Man I don't know about that, an unprofitable 18 month removed IPO and a chip maker fresh off a COVID spike trading at 51 times earnings???

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

Man I don't know about that, an unprofitable 18 month removed IPO and a chip maker fresh off a COVID spike trading at 51 times earnings???

things constantly change. growth stocks turn into value stocks at some point of time. these stocks are now getting repriced. Shopify is a great company, i believe they are trading over 80 times next year's projected earnings. but after that, growth is in question. do you feel like putting up 80 to win 1? getting repriced to 10 for 1 makes sense to me

the next bull market is going to have different leaders than this past one. i have a pick already for the next one, but it is selling for $98 today.. i am going to wait until it gets below $50, maybe even $30 or $40. the name of that one is PERFICIENT (PRFT).. I am looking at a few others now like SILVER GATE CAPITAL (SI) I'd be looking to get in about half this price on that one too

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

things constantly change. growth stocks turn into value stocks at some point of time. these stocks are now getting repriced. Shopify is a great company, i believe they are trading over 80 times next year's projected earnings. but after that, growth is in question. do you feel like putting up 80 to win 1? getting repriced to 10 for 1 makes sense to me

the next bull market is going to have different leaders than this past one. i have a pick already for the next one, but it is selling for $98 today.. i am going to wait until it gets below $50, maybe even $30 or $40. the name of that one is PERFICIENT (PRFT).. I am looking at a few others now like SILVER GATE CAPITAL (SI) I'd be looking to get in about half this price on that one too

Shopify is a good company, basically another COVID spiker. Can they have any growth and sustain earnings in a non COVID environment? I don’t know, but I’m not throwing my money behind it until they answer those questions.

Going forward companies need to make money to earn investment dollars. I think many investors don’t really know which companies are profitable or how much they actually make. Energy companies for example can earn EMBARASSING amounts of money. We are about to see it first hand. Insurance companies are the same way, their EPS basically wipes the floor with about 90% of tech companies.

Oh, and Crypto will be gone in 5 years. Write that down.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

Shopify is a good company, basically another COVID spiker. Can they have any growth and sustain earnings in a non COVID environment? I don’t know, but I’m not throwing my money behind it until they answer those questions.

Going forward companies need to make money to earn investment dollars. I think many investors don’t really know which companies are profitable or how much they actually make. Energy companies for example can earn EMBARASSING amounts of money. We are about to see it first hand. Insurance companies are the same way, their EPS basically wipes the floor with about 90% of tech companies.

Oh, and Crypto will be gone in 5 years. Write that down.

i always use volume numbers as magnets, if you take the SPY back to October of 2007 you will see that was the high volume magnet index double-bottomed.
ultimately, that is where i think we are headed. the bus will have plenty of stops before it gets there though like the first stop around SPY 370, then the next big number of March of 2020. then of course, ultimately but not necessarily the bottom of 2007. i can't tell you how long it will take to go down to those numbers, but i am sure it will be faster than it took to go up. this looks like a slow and torturous roll. there will be plenty of money that one can make trading to the downside.