I wanted to practice handicapping with this one maiden special weight today.
It has a favorite named Be You that will take a lot of money, and maybe rightfully so off his stakes experience.
Churchill Downs Race 7
2YO Maiden - 1 1/16 miles
Nuevo Empire (15-1) - After losing by 17 lengths last time, he seems outmatched. However, that is a nice pedigree. Down the line, he may improve.
Justifreak (10-1) - It is rare to see Matty G in any pedigree these days. This one also lost by 17 lengths last time and he needs to show more here.
Be You (8/5) - Given his third in the American Pharoah and fourth in the Hopeful Stakes, Be You holds a major class advantage. With that said, he flattened out in the American Pharoah and lost by nine lengths in his initial try at a route distance. While Be You is the best horse on paper, there are other options that could win.
Nash (2-1) - Here is another major contender off his fast runner-up finish on Oct. 7 at Keeneland, where he earned a 107 on TimeformUS while losing by 5 1/4 lengths to the impressive winner Booth. That finish came in a sprint, and now he stretches to a two-turn route. Pedigree-wise, he shows great stamina on both sides of his family. He could win.
Nyquist Frequency (10-1) - He did not run terrible in his runner-up finish at Keeneland last month. After dueling for the lead though, he faded away in the stretch and lost to the Brad Cox-trained winner by 6 lengths. Need to see more.
Django (8-1) - The figures are improving for this McPeek-trained colt and he shows two runner-up finishes in his last two starts. In his most recent start, he just could not keep pace with a nice winner in Dornoch, who is a sibling to Mage. Two starts ago on this course in September, he lost to a decent runner in Parchment Party, who won his next start. However, Django's deep closing style might hurt him in this spot.
Nullify (30-1) - He exits the same as as Nyquist Frequency. While that one contested the pace, this runner was never a factor. After showing brief speed in midpack, he lost by 26 lengths.
Crusading (15-1) - His last start on Oct. 1 on this course is not terrible. After stalking the pace closely to third, he faded in the stretch to lose by seven lengths. But the race was not particularly fast as the winner finished in 1:36.58. Notice the MSW a few races later on the same card with Resilience in it. The winner Stronghold won that one-mile maiden race in 1:35.99.
Resilience (6-1) - Resilience exits a runner-up finish to Stronghold in a local one-mile maiden race on Oct. 1. He came with his strongest move in the last few moments of the race, but just came up short while acting like a runner who wants longer routes. As noted above, the winner Stronghold won the race in 1:35.99, which was faster than the other one-mile maiden race in 1:36.58. Check out the monster work on Nov. 4.
Conclusion
The race comes down to
Be You,
Nash,
Django and
Resilience. All four of these horses can win this maiden race.
Be You might become underlaid as the "name" horse.
Nash lacks route experience and also offers low odds.
Django's last two starts are fine, but he his deep closing style hurts.
Resilience's workout on Nov. 4 looks serious and the stretchout is supposed to help given how strongly he wants to run towards the wire.
I'll take
Resilience, as long as he starts at 7/2 or higher.
