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Old 11-20-2021, 02:19 PM   #1
mountainman
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Trip Thieves and Targeting

So frequently these days I witness an occurrence perhaps more commonplace-and traditional-than I had realized: Trip theft. While the "targeting" of chalk by opposing riders intent on hooking, bumping, impeding , or floating the favorite wide has long been common in racing, a form of "shadowing" seems to take place as those jocks , at whatever place in the pack, try to provoke a "match race" with the favorite. One motivation for that must be simple narcissism-a desire to be where the action is. Another i see as spite-to make the chalk crash and burn.

In some other instances, though, probably they reason that an opponent is favored based, at least partly, on a running style flattered by pace-scenario, a projected running position, or even post and possible path-bias. I think that compels certain riders to steal trips, sometimes regardless of their own mounts ability or running -style. "If this is the way the favorite figures to win, now it's MY way to win," summarizes that thinking.

Last edited by mountainman; 11-20-2021 at 02:20 PM.
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Old 11-20-2021, 02:35 PM   #2
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So frequently these days I witness an occurrence perhaps more commonplace-and traditional-than I had realized: Trip theft. While the "targeting" of chalk by opposing riders intent on hooking, bumping, impeding , or floating the favorite wide has long been common in racing, a form of "shadowing" seems to take place as those jocks , at whatever place in the pack, try to provoke a "match race" with the favorite. One motivation for that must be simple narcissism-a desire to be where the action is. Another i see as spite-to make the chalk crash and burn.

In some other instances, though, probably they reason that an opponent is favored based, at least partly, on a running style flattered by pace-scenario, a projected running position, or even post and possible path-bias. I think that compels certain riders to steal trips, sometimes regardless of their own mounts ability or running -style. "If this is the way the favorite figures to win, now it's MY way to win," summarizes that thinking.
Rarely happens at major tracks. Wish it happened more often. Especially when Baffert has one in a race
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Old 11-20-2021, 02:56 PM   #3
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Rarely happens at major tracks. Wish it happened more often. Especially when Baffert has one in a race
Remind me not to get on your bad side. Dude, you are relentless. lol..
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Old 11-20-2021, 04:28 PM   #4
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Sometimes, it's the only chance to try to win the race. Especially if the favorite figures to get an easy pace- you either go out there and burn him up or you finish 2nd, 6 lengths back.
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Old 11-20-2021, 05:03 PM   #5
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Sometimes, it's the only chance to try to win the race. Especially if the favorite figures to get an easy pace- you either go out there and burn him up or you finish 2nd, 6 lengths back.
If you lay off the easy-lead favorite, you may fnish 2nd and 6 lengths back. But if you engage the favorite and try to "burn him up"...then binoculars will be needed to find you at the finish line.

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Old 11-20-2021, 07:44 PM   #6
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I do see jocks gun horses out that unexpectedly press the front runners. Tracks that I notice gung-ho tactics the most are Tampa Bay, Mountaineer, and Gulfstream
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Old 11-20-2021, 09:13 PM   #7
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Remind me not to get on your bad side. Dude, you are relentless. lol..
If you have the PP's for the 8th at Del Mar from today look at the rail horse and then watch how Espinoza rides him.
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Old 11-20-2021, 09:35 PM   #8
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If you have the PP's for the 8th at Del Mar from today look at the rail horse and then watch how Espinoza rides him.
Mountainman I agree 100%. Are you guys not watching GP on a regular basis especially in this god forsaken Fall meet. You see when these jocks take a 50-1 bomb that on paper does not show any front and guns it to front. The smart jocks dont fall for this tatic but I have witnessed plenty of favorites chase him only to drop out of race and kill most of my pick 4, 5 and 6's.
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Old 11-21-2021, 02:27 AM   #9
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If you lay off the easy-lead favorite, you may fnish 2nd and 6 lengths back. But if you engage the favorite and try to "burn him up"...then binoculars will be needed to find you at the finish line.
That’s the lesson connections have learned in recent years that they didn’t fully understand years ago. That’s also why horseplayers today get frustrated when second and third best speeds take back.

The trick is to know when to go and when to sit off. You have to know your own horse and his abilities relative to horse you are thinking of challenging.
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Old 11-21-2021, 08:50 AM   #10
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...or you finish 2nd, 6 lengths back.
Saves a condition for the next time
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Old 11-21-2021, 09:03 AM   #11
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Remind me not to get on your bad side. Dude, you are relentless. lol..
Attached chart and PP's
Attached Files
File Type: pdf 8th race chart.pdf (61.0 KB, 34 views)
File Type: pdf DMR--11-20-2021.pdf (252.2 KB, 23 views)
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Old 11-21-2021, 10:26 AM   #12
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Saves a condition for the next time
I won’t go as far as saying anyone is stiffing horses for that reason, but if you have a low level horse that’s barely competitive at its current level and you will lose a condition if he wins, you are sometimes better off financially piling up 2nds, 3rds, and 4ths in the current condition than winning and getting buried at the next one. It’s usually only true for the very lowest level horses, but I’ve had a piece of horses like that and after a win the first thing I asked myself was “now what?”. You can be in a position where your only options are to get buried repeatedly, ship out to a lower tier track, or pray.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-21-2021 at 10:29 AM.
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Old 11-21-2021, 12:18 PM   #13
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If you have the PP's for the 8th at Del Mar from today look at the rail horse and then watch how Espinoza rides him.
I looked at your pdf's.....what am I supposed be seeing?
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Old 11-21-2021, 12:45 PM   #14
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I looked at your pdf's.....what am I supposed be seeing?
Horse with sprinter speed from the rail ceded the lead in 23.74 to a couple Bob horses. Turns out he outwardly bled so who knows, but sure wasn't very aggressive.
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Old 11-21-2021, 12:45 PM   #15
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I looked at your pdf's.....what am I supposed be seeing?
The 1 should have been on the lead but Espinoza never tried to get it. By the fractions they ran he should have been on the lead. Bafferts get an easy trip again.
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