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Old 11-23-2021, 08:03 PM   #31
mhaney0423
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I, too, frequently don't understand posts here.
I can definitely see how that could happen. Have a good night.
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Old 11-23-2021, 08:10 PM   #32
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I can definitely see how that could happen. Have a good night.
You too.

By the way, I liked the video of your daughter playing Future Days. I love that song.
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Old 11-23-2021, 08:20 PM   #33
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You too.

By the way, I liked the video of your daughter playing Future Days. I love that song.
Thanks man, appreciate it!!
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Old 11-24-2021, 06:54 AM   #34
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Congrats to the connections on the win
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Old 11-24-2021, 07:54 AM   #35
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The owner(s) is new to the game, and is having an exceptional first year:

https://www.equibase.com/profiles/al...t=TB&year=2021

That's a helluva quick strike right off the claim.
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Old 11-24-2021, 10:16 AM   #36
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I respect Mark’s opinion and would like to know how he feels about the change.
Hi, Bob..I was busy at my day job and didn't watch the race. I'll pull it up soon. I trained and still mentor one of the mvr stewards, btw, and will get her feedback on the dq when I can.

For now, I'll say this: Ohio boards were well known for (sometimes extreme) tolerance when the late Daryl Parker presided, but for better or worse, that policy has changed-including as applies to Dq's.

Last edited by mountainman; 11-24-2021 at 10:18 AM.
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Old 11-24-2021, 10:16 AM   #37
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was open to a shot against Yoda, but life got busy

would have bet on somebody like Beren or the Asmussen horse. I didn't cap the race or card.

after the race? I like the winner.

Those are tough general betting puzzles (very short priced horse you feel is worth a shot against, big field, ... do you cover every base? do you all+emphasize the chalkier and 'A's??
gets expensive and I have been 'cold'... probably would have made a small bet on a horse or two that I felt was boosted in value.

Chart says there was a bit of trouble for Baby Yoda? I still haven't watched the race, but the moment seems to have passed. The consensus seems to be either "flash in the pan" or "don't trust the freak fig phenomena"
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Old 11-24-2021, 10:34 AM   #38
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was open to a shot against Yoda, but life got busy

would have bet on somebody like Beren or the Asmussen horse. I didn't cap the race or card.

after the race? I like the winner.

Those are tough general betting puzzles (very short priced horse you feel is worth a shot against, big field, ... do you cover every base? do you all+emphasize the chalkier and 'A's??
gets expensive and I have been 'cold'... probably would have made a small bet on a horse or two that I felt was boosted in value.

Chart says there was a bit of trouble for Baby Yoda? I still haven't watched the race, but the moment seems to have passed. The consensus seems to be either "flash in the pan" or "don't trust the freak fig phenomena"
Firing hard against chalk I hate only works for me when I hold strong opinion on which horse(s) will capitalize.
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Old 11-24-2021, 02:07 PM   #39
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The winning Beyer figure was 88. Baby Yoda got a 77.
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Old 11-24-2021, 03:10 PM   #40
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The winning Beyer figure was 88. Baby Yoda got a 77.
He ran like Baby Huey.
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Old 11-24-2021, 03:15 PM   #41
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The winning Beyer figure was 88. Baby Yoda got a 77.
He ran like Baby Huey.
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Old 11-24-2021, 03:57 PM   #42
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He ran like Baby Huey.
I found three horses by that name (1982, 2005, and 2016) and amazingly not one of them was able to run in even one race.
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Old 11-24-2021, 04:08 PM   #43
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Firing hard against chalk I hate only works for me when I hold strong opinion on which horse(s) will capitalize.


Many years ago, I read in a Dick Mitchell book that ANY horse is a profitable bet in a race where the favorite loses. This made mathematical sense to me...and I decided to give the idea a serious tryout at the betting windows. I went bankrupt in a month and a half...even though every favorite that I bet against lost.
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Old 11-24-2021, 04:10 PM   #44
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Many years ago, I read in a Dick Mitchell book that ANY horse is a profitable bet in a race where the favorite loses. This made mathematical sense to me...and I decided to give the idea a serious tryout at the betting windows. I went bankrupt in a month and a half...even though every favorite that I bet against lost.
Seems like you should have just bet ALL the other horses. If every favorite LOSES, you have to win. Of course that is assuming you have a good handle on the off odds and can weight the bets properly.

Last edited by cj; 11-24-2021 at 06:54 PM. Reason: Fixed bad wording
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Old 11-24-2021, 04:37 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post


Many years ago, I read in a Dick Mitchell book that ANY horse is a profitable bet in a race where the favorite loses. This made mathematical sense to me...and I decided to give the idea a serious tryout at the betting windows. I went bankrupt in a month and a half...even though every favorite that I bet against lost.
You had them right where you wanted them, but you went broke too soon.

The real challenge with that strategy is that there's a difference between finding a favorite you don't like and them winning infrequently enough to cover the take. It's not too tough to find favorites that will lose more than the track take, but to lose around 20% more than expected is a bit tougher. To find favorites that have almost no chance of winning is close to impossible.

The best scenario is finding one of those over bet favorites and having a positive value opinion in the same race. If your opinions are fairly solid in general, the combination should be enough to put you over the top even if neither category is strong enough alone. But then you turn into me and pass a lot of races.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-24-2021 at 04:41 PM.
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