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11-14-2021, 08:11 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Can you beat the casino?
I met a guy about a year ago, who told me that he has a sure-fire system for beating the casino mini-baccarat tables. I, of course, told him that I didn't believe him...and I also placed a wager on that, which he gladly accepted. He told me that I could watch him in action as much as I wanted to...and I should pay him only when I was 100% convinced that he indeed had a winning system. And here is where we stand up until now:
I have watched him play a total of 40 times...and his playing sessions last about 2 hours. 70% of his playing sessions are winners...his winning sessions average more money than his losing ones...and I've never seen him increase his wager after a loss. He alternates between "Banker" and 'Player' in a manner that I can't comprehend...and his bets fluctuate between $25 and $200. He only increases his bets after a win...and always decreases his bet after a loss. Overall...he profits to the tune of about $250 an hour.
Is this enough proof that the man has uncovered the rarest of all finds? Should I now pay him for my disbelieving wager?
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11-14-2021, 08:22 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 590
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hold off until they put him in the black book thats proof enough for me . best of luck to him and to you sir
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11-14-2021, 08:45 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,460
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do not pay him until you have watched enough times to determine what he is doing
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11-14-2021, 08:53 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,258
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I say pay him to tell you what he's actually doing.
-jp
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Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
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11-14-2021, 08:57 PM
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#5
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,877
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I met a guy about a year ago, who told me that he has a sure-fire system for beating the casino mini-baccarat tables. I, of course, told him that I didn't believe him...and I also placed a wager on that, which he gladly accepted. He told me that I could watch him in action as much as I wanted to...and I should pay him only when I was 100% convinced that he indeed had a winning system. And here is where we stand up until now:
I have watched him play a total of 40 times...and his playing sessions last about 2 hours. 70% of his playing sessions are winners...his winning sessions average more money than his losing ones...and I've never seen him increase his wager after a loss. He alternates between "Banker" and 'Player' in a manner that I can't comprehend...and his bets fluctuate between $25 and $200. He only increases his bets after a win...and always decreases his bet after a loss. Overall...he profits to the tune of about $250 an hour.
Is this enough proof that the man has uncovered the rarest of all finds? Should I now pay him for my disbelieving wager?
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That is pretty impressive.
Way outside the range of normal expectations.
Basically, if we count each playing session as a single bet, and if his losses were the same size as his wins, he'd be like a horse player winning 70% at even money.
That would be a +40% advantage and optimum bet would be 40%.
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11-14-2021, 09:04 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
I say pay him to tell you what he's actually doing.
-jp
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I already offered to partner up with him. Predictably...he told me that he doesn't need me.
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Live to play another day.
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11-14-2021, 09:13 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
That is pretty impressive.
Way outside the range of normal expectations.
Basically, if we count each playing session as a single bet, and if his losses were the same size as his wins, he'd be like a horse player winning 70% at even money.
That would be a +40% advantage and optimum bet would be 40%.
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What impresses me most is that he told me beforehand what kind of results he expected...and he was pretty damn close.
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11-14-2021, 09:32 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 12,405
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I have never played baccarat, is it a hard game to learn? What is the difference between mini baccarat and regular?
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11-14-2021, 10:00 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inner Dirt
I have never played baccarat, is it a hard game to learn? What is the difference between mini baccarat and regular?
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There is nothing to "learn" in baccarat. The only decision that the player needs to make is whether to place his wager on the "Banker" or the 'Player' box. All the other game decisions are handled by the dealer. The rules are the same in both the regular and the mini versions.
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11-14-2021, 10:28 PM
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#10
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,877
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inner Dirt
I have never played baccarat, is it a hard game to learn? What is the difference between mini baccarat and regular?
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Rules are exactly the same.
Only thing different is the customs.
(All decisions are based upon what is known as "3rd card rule.")
Mini-Bacc was one of the games I dealt in Reno.
(In the 70s & 80s I dealt craps, BJ, roulette and - get this - farobank.)
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11-15-2021, 08:37 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,658
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the great part of this guy is that he is under the radar. there must be about 10,000 mini-baccarat tables worldwide.
i believe the story because i have watched some mini-baccarat and see the same orientals at those tables in the Encore Hotel in Boston. i see some of them consistantly stack up chips. there are times that they are sitting at the table and don't make a bet for 10 or more hands straight, then they strike, then they back off again.
some here might have heard of a famous crap player called "Blackie" who also won consistently and has been barred from crap tables all over. again like the orientals playing baccarat, this guy would sit out plenty of rolls.
when the Encore had a poker room i played in the 1-2 game. other than that, i have yet to play any casino game and don't plan on it for the remainder of this century. the small holdem game had to be the best one in the world, but they never re=opened.
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11-15-2021, 11:16 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 46,883
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I met a guy about a year ago, who told me that he has a sure-fire system for beating the casino mini-baccarat tables. I, of course, told him that I didn't believe him...and I also placed a wager on that, which he gladly accepted. He told me that I could watch him in action as much as I wanted to...and I should pay him only when I was 100% convinced that he indeed had a winning system. And here is where we stand up until now:
I have watched him play a total of 40 times...and his playing sessions last about 2 hours. 70% of his playing sessions are winners...his winning sessions average more money than his losing ones...and I've never seen him increase his wager after a loss. He alternates between "Banker" and 'Player' in a manner that I can't comprehend...and his bets fluctuate between $25 and $200. He only increases his bets after a win...and always decreases his bet after a loss. Overall...he profits to the tune of about $250 an hour.
Is this enough proof that the man has uncovered the rarest of all finds? Should I now pay him for my disbelieving wager?
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His wagering scheme is eminently logical, I'll say that.
And I would suspect that since mathematics, generally, or probabilities, more specifically, no doubt play the central role in his system, he most likely can beat the game just the way Blackjack can be beaten.
I know you're the Skeptic Extraordinaire on this forum, but I think the honorable thing to do is pay up.
__________________
Consistent profits can only be made on the basis of analysis that is far from obvious to the majority. - anonymous guru
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11-15-2021, 12:29 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boxcar
His wagering scheme is eminently logical, I'll say that.
And I would suspect that since mathematics, generally, or probabilities, more specifically, no doubt play the central role in his system, he most likely can beat the game just the way Blackjack can be beaten.
I know you're the Skeptic Extraordinaire on this forum, but I think the honorable thing to do is pay up.
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Yup...I think you are right. And I'll bite my tongue the next time I allow "conventional wisdom" to make my mind up for me.
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11-15-2021, 02:07 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
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I don't think 40 sessions is enough, but it has been too long since I've done the math to determine what would get you to a high enough confidence level.
Still, I'm very intrigued, especially by the way he's varying his bet size. Normally, that kind of thing makes sense as the probabilities shift and don't have much to do with whether you won or lost the last bet. I would focus on the pattern between which side he's on and the bet size variation. There must be a pattern there somewhere, but I don't know the game at all.
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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11-15-2021, 03:42 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I don't think 40 sessions is enough, but it has been too long since I've done the math to determine what would get you to a high enough confidence level.
Still, I'm very intrigued, especially by the way he's varying his bet size. Normally, that kind of thing makes sense as the probabilities shift and don't have much to do with whether you won or lost the last bet. I would focus on the pattern between which side he's on and the bet size variation. There must be a pattern there somewhere, but I don't know the game at all.
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I agree, 40 playing sessions does not appear to be statistically significant as proof of the profitability of a gambling method...especially when the entire world disputes that such a method can even exist. But the thing that has me bewildered is that this man doesn't "chase" by increasing his bet sizing after a loss....as other "system players" do. He is methodical, robotic even...and he seems in complete control of his emotions during the entire betting session.
As odd as it is for me to admit...I honestly feel that he can beat an "unbeatable" casino game.
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