Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Off Topic > Off Topic - General


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 11-14-2021, 08:11 PM   #1
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Can you beat the casino?

I met a guy about a year ago, who told me that he has a sure-fire system for beating the casino mini-baccarat tables. I, of course, told him that I didn't believe him...and I also placed a wager on that, which he gladly accepted. He told me that I could watch him in action as much as I wanted to...and I should pay him only when I was 100% convinced that he indeed had a winning system. And here is where we stand up until now:

I have watched him play a total of 40 times...and his playing sessions last about 2 hours. 70% of his playing sessions are winners...his winning sessions average more money than his losing ones...and I've never seen him increase his wager after a loss. He alternates between "Banker" and 'Player' in a manner that I can't comprehend...and his bets fluctuate between $25 and $200. He only increases his bets after a win...and always decreases his bet after a loss. Overall...he profits to the tune of about $250 an hour.

Is this enough proof that the man has uncovered the rarest of all finds? Should I now pay him for my disbelieving wager?
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-14-2021, 08:22 PM   #2
sharkey11
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 590
hold off until they put him in the black book thats proof enough for me .best of luck to him and to you sir
sharkey11 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-14-2021, 08:45 PM   #3
davew
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,460
do not pay him until you have watched enough times to determine what he is doing
davew is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-14-2021, 08:53 PM   #4
Jeff P
Registered User
 
Jeff P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,258
I say pay him to tell you what he's actually doing.


-jp

.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
Jeff P is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-14-2021, 08:57 PM   #5
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,877
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I met a guy about a year ago, who told me that he has a sure-fire system for beating the casino mini-baccarat tables. I, of course, told him that I didn't believe him...and I also placed a wager on that, which he gladly accepted. He told me that I could watch him in action as much as I wanted to...and I should pay him only when I was 100% convinced that he indeed had a winning system. And here is where we stand up until now:

I have watched him play a total of 40 times...and his playing sessions last about 2 hours. 70% of his playing sessions are winners...his winning sessions average more money than his losing ones...and I've never seen him increase his wager after a loss. He alternates between "Banker" and 'Player' in a manner that I can't comprehend...and his bets fluctuate between $25 and $200. He only increases his bets after a win...and always decreases his bet after a loss. Overall...he profits to the tune of about $250 an hour.

Is this enough proof that the man has uncovered the rarest of all finds? Should I now pay him for my disbelieving wager?
That is pretty impressive.

Way outside the range of normal expectations.

Basically, if we count each playing session as a single bet, and if his losses were the same size as his wins, he'd be like a horse player winning 70% at even money.

That would be a +40% advantage and optimum bet would be 40%.
Dave Schwartz is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-14-2021, 09:04 PM   #6
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
I say pay him to tell you what he's actually doing.


-jp

.
I already offered to partner up with him. Predictably...he told me that he doesn't need me.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-14-2021, 09:13 PM   #7
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
That is pretty impressive.

Way outside the range of normal expectations.

Basically, if we count each playing session as a single bet, and if his losses were the same size as his wins, he'd be like a horse player winning 70% at even money.

That would be a +40% advantage and optimum bet would be 40%.
What impresses me most is that he told me beforehand what kind of results he expected...and he was pretty damn close.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-14-2021, 09:32 PM   #8
Inner Dirt
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 12,405
I have never played baccarat, is it a hard game to learn? What is the difference between mini baccarat and regular?
Inner Dirt is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-14-2021, 10:00 PM   #9
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inner Dirt View Post
I have never played baccarat, is it a hard game to learn? What is the difference between mini baccarat and regular?
There is nothing to "learn" in baccarat. The only decision that the player needs to make is whether to place his wager on the "Banker" or the 'Player' box. All the other game decisions are handled by the dealer. The rules are the same in both the regular and the mini versions.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-14-2021, 10:28 PM   #10
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,877
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inner Dirt View Post
I have never played baccarat, is it a hard game to learn? What is the difference between mini baccarat and regular?
Rules are exactly the same.
Only thing different is the customs.
(All decisions are based upon what is known as "3rd card rule.")



Mini-Bacc was one of the games I dealt in Reno.
(In the 70s & 80s I dealt craps, BJ, roulette and - get this - farobank.)
Dave Schwartz is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-15-2021, 08:37 AM   #11
lamboguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,658
the great part of this guy is that he is under the radar. there must be about 10,000 mini-baccarat tables worldwide.

i believe the story because i have watched some mini-baccarat and see the same orientals at those tables in the Encore Hotel in Boston. i see some of them consistantly stack up chips. there are times that they are sitting at the table and don't make a bet for 10 or more hands straight, then they strike, then they back off again.

some here might have heard of a famous crap player called "Blackie" who also won consistently and has been barred from crap tables all over. again like the orientals playing baccarat, this guy would sit out plenty of rolls.

when the Encore had a poker room i played in the 1-2 game. other than that, i have yet to play any casino game and don't plan on it for the remainder of this century. the small holdem game had to be the best one in the world, but they never re=opened.
lamboguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-15-2021, 11:16 AM   #12
boxcar
Registered User
 
boxcar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 46,883
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I met a guy about a year ago, who told me that he has a sure-fire system for beating the casino mini-baccarat tables. I, of course, told him that I didn't believe him...and I also placed a wager on that, which he gladly accepted. He told me that I could watch him in action as much as I wanted to...and I should pay him only when I was 100% convinced that he indeed had a winning system. And here is where we stand up until now:

I have watched him play a total of 40 times...and his playing sessions last about 2 hours. 70% of his playing sessions are winners...his winning sessions average more money than his losing ones...and I've never seen him increase his wager after a loss. He alternates between "Banker" and 'Player' in a manner that I can't comprehend...and his bets fluctuate between $25 and $200. He only increases his bets after a win...and always decreases his bet after a loss. Overall...he profits to the tune of about $250 an hour.

Is this enough proof that the man has uncovered the rarest of all finds? Should I now pay him for my disbelieving wager?
His wagering scheme is eminently logical, I'll say that.

And I would suspect that since mathematics, generally, or probabilities, more specifically, no doubt play the central role in his system, he most likely can beat the game just the way Blackjack can be beaten.

I know you're the Skeptic Extraordinaire on this forum, but I think the honorable thing to do is pay up.
__________________
Consistent profits can only be made on the basis of analysis that is far from obvious to the majority. - anonymous guru
boxcar is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-15-2021, 12:29 PM   #13
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by boxcar View Post
His wagering scheme is eminently logical, I'll say that.

And I would suspect that since mathematics, generally, or probabilities, more specifically, no doubt play the central role in his system, he most likely can beat the game just the way Blackjack can be beaten.

I know you're the Skeptic Extraordinaire on this forum, but I think the honorable thing to do is pay up.
Yup...I think you are right. And I'll bite my tongue the next time I allow "conventional wisdom" to make my mind up for me.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-15-2021, 02:07 PM   #14
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
I don't think 40 sessions is enough, but it has been too long since I've done the math to determine what would get you to a high enough confidence level.

Still, I'm very intrigued, especially by the way he's varying his bet size. Normally, that kind of thing makes sense as the probabilities shift and don't have much to do with whether you won or lost the last bet. I would focus on the pattern between which side he's on and the bet size variation. There must be a pattern there somewhere, but I don't know the game at all.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-15-2021, 03:42 PM   #15
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I don't think 40 sessions is enough, but it has been too long since I've done the math to determine what would get you to a high enough confidence level.

Still, I'm very intrigued, especially by the way he's varying his bet size. Normally, that kind of thing makes sense as the probabilities shift and don't have much to do with whether you won or lost the last bet. I would focus on the pattern between which side he's on and the bet size variation. There must be a pattern there somewhere, but I don't know the game at all.
I agree, 40 playing sessions does not appear to be statistically significant as proof of the profitability of a gambling method...especially when the entire world disputes that such a method can even exist. But the thing that has me bewildered is that this man doesn't "chase" by increasing his bet sizing after a loss....as other "system players" do. He is methodical, robotic even...and he seems in complete control of his emotions during the entire betting session.

As odd as it is for me to admit...I honestly feel that he can beat an "unbeatable" casino game.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:33 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.