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Old 09-06-2021, 11:07 PM   #1
PIC6SIX
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SAVERS

Should "SAVER BETS" be part of ones betting format? I know they can be useful if one has a double, P-3, P-4 going in the last leg. However, how does this type of insurance betting bottom line over time? Anyone have some stats? Same question for vertical bets also.
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Old 09-06-2021, 11:29 PM   #2
ReplayRandall
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Unexpected tote-board action sometimes makes "saving" the right call.
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Old 09-07-2021, 06:32 PM   #3
PIC6SIX
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please explain what type of unexpected tote action.
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Old 09-07-2021, 06:40 PM   #4
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Do you really want me to explain this?.....If you do, it will be a "spicy" reply.
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Old 09-07-2021, 07:10 PM   #5
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I have no stats but generally do not play savers or hedges.

The one time I did was when I was sitting heavy I think in the Friday 2010 Breeders Cup card in the late pick 4. Willpays for my horses were anywhere from 15K to 50K so I hedged to at least get ticket cost back. Yep, you guessed it, I left out the "wise guy" horse Royal Delta....and she went on to win easy.

So, for me, it would have to be a sizable Willpay I'm seeing and only 1 or 2 threats...otherwise would get too costly?
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Old 09-07-2021, 07:21 PM   #6
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spicey RR not you lol NO SOUP FOR YOU come back 1YEAR NEXT! by the way savers or hedges as some say are realy to just lock up the $$$ for me anyway that is

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Old 09-07-2021, 08:38 PM   #7
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Savers are going to be a net negative from a math standpoint but then how important is your state of mind to your bottom line? For most people I think the answer is the state of mind is critically important. For a whale not making the actual bets (the computer making the bets in automated fashion) it doesn't make sense IMO to save. For living breathing horseplayers I think savers make sense to lessen the potential for extended losing streaks. Someone who has the ability to tread water betting many races using savers but continues to leave the door ajar consistently for a potential score is playing a good game IMO.
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Old 09-08-2021, 01:19 PM   #8
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Savers are kind of like life, car, and health insurance.

We know the economics of insurance are bad for the group that buys it. The profits from selling it is what the group loses. But as an individual you may want to avoid the risk of a catastrophic event. So buying some insurance often makes sense.

Savers are a kind of bankroll management insurance strategy. Over the very long haul it's going to cost you money (unless of course the saver you buying is an overlay you initially missed). However, if you are playing an extremely low probability wager that could threaten your bankroll if you don't hit with some frequency, taking out an insurance policy may be worth the cost.

Over my lifetime, I am sure saver wagers cost me money. So I don't do that anymore.
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Old 09-08-2021, 03:56 PM   #9
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I have no data but I think some important savers to make are:


*when you box 2 horses in the exacta, play them to come 1-3 in the trifecta. A small ab/all/ab trifecta, a bigger ab/main contenders/ab and maybe even a small main contenders/ab/ab(thus a little coverage if they come 2nd/3rd.

* When you have a clear solid favorite(under 2-1) I like to play them over your value horse in the exacta, a small turn, and in the trifecta with a small fav/all/value, a bigger fav/main contenders/value, a small
main contender/fav/value
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Old 09-08-2021, 07:34 PM   #10
AskinHaskin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PIC6SIX View Post
Should "SAVER BETS" be part of ones betting format?

I dunno, should the guy who stood to have to pay out five million dollars if a certain horse had won the Kentucky Derby, have wagered a million to win on it in said Derby?

Why do you ask?
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Old 09-15-2021, 03:16 PM   #11
Robert Fischer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PIC6SIX View Post
Should "SAVER BETS" be part of ones betting format? I know they can be useful if one has a double, P-3, P-4 going in the last leg. However, how does this type of insurance betting bottom line over time? Anyone have some stats? Same question for vertical bets also.
the general 'rule' = savers are 'bad' unless you are alive to a significant bankroll-boosting payout (a big score)


Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
Unexpected tote-board action sometimes makes "saving" the right call.
RR is correct. It's a more advanced situation, the main concern is simple. Bet if you have an uncovered play that provides value. (in this case the value is coming from a tote-reading angle where a horse is hot or cold on the board, and you happen to be using it to hedge a decent live ticket)



additional advanced situation = taking a 'flyer' from a short sequence to a long sequence.

Example: You have a tremendous Pick-3 with two false favorites and some big opinions. You primarily bet that Pick-3.
You can also play a very lean ticket in the Pick-5 or Pick-6 from the same race, emphasizing your best opinions, and landing on a heavy chalk (or in a larger field the 2 or 3 co-favs) in the final leg. This way, you've constructed a cheap ticket that could be carried from your p3 if your opinions come out, and should be worth enough that you have the option to hedge if alive.
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