*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[oughtoh]

Entries with speed the last 2 nights at CTX have hit 8 out of 16 races for a profit of $36.20. Hope posting this doesn't kill the streak.

[Harmonicaslim]

Greg's Platinum program has always done well for me at small tracks.
E-1, E-2 and E-Power in particular.

[Dan H]

Indiana Downs 2021 07 19 False Favorite Predictions using TMoves and BRIS pp’s

(After scratches)

R01) #1 Rhett Th…...... (3/5) DF - No Value - Pass Race
R02) #3 Treasury........ (4/5) DF - No Value - Pass Race
R03) #1 Lieutenant ….. (2/1) VF - Failed 4 of 8 Factors
R04) #3 Chipoff the …,, (2/1) DF - No Value - Pass Race
R05) #5 Twobirds …..... (9/5) VF - Failed 3 of 8 Factors
R06) #5 Macho Ale….....(4/1) FF - Failed 6 of 8 Factors
R07) #5 Ginnsu War…...(1/1) ?? - No Value - Pass Race
R08) #2 Roninthem…....(5/2) FF - Failed 5 of 8 Factors
R09) #4 Choctaw Bi..... (4/1) DF - No Value - Pass Race
R10) None 2F Race

DF = Deserved Favorite (public will favor and factors support their decision)
VF = Vulnerable Favorite (public will like but factors detract from favoritism)
FF = False Favorite (public will like but factors suggest they are mistaken)

It is assumed a track morning line maker’s goal is to predict what the post time odds will be when the gates open and publish them as a best estimate.

Notes:
- This is an exercise to find deserved, vulnerable, and false favorites.
- It is a step towards identifying races to pass in search of value
- Since it tests M/L favorites, it may only point to flawed M/L makers.
- This exercise is only part of a larger process.

[Dan H]

R01) #1 Rhett Th … (3/5) DF - Off at 1/2 - Won
R02) #3 Treasury … (4/5) DF - Off at 1/5 - Won
R03) #1 Lieutena …. (2/1) VF - Off at 9/5 - Second
R04) #3 Chipoff t …. (2/1) DF - Off at 1/2 - Third
R05) #5 Twobirds ... (9/5) VF - Off at 5/2 - Second
R06) #5 Macho A …. (4/1) FF - Off at 7/2 - Fourth
R07) #5 Ginnsu W… (1/1) DF - Off at 3/5 - Won
R08) #2 Roninth …… (5/2) FF - Off at 2/1 - Second
R09) #4 Choctaw .… (4/1) DF - Off at 1/5 - Won
R10) None …………….2F Race


Small track, small fields, small sample, but telling:
- Four of 5 Deserved Favorites (DFs) Won
- Two of 2 Vulnerable Favorites (VFs) did not Win
- Two of 2 False Favorites (FFs) did not Win

DanH

[Dan H]

See Post 7413 for notes relevant to this exercise.

(After scratches)

R01) #6 Over … (5/2) DF - No Value - Pass Race
R02) #3 Ceci …. (8/5) VF - Failed 3 of 6 Factors
R03) #5 Cha ….. (9/5) FF - Failed 4 of 6 Factors
R04) #3 Lem …. (6/5) DF - No Value - Pass Race
R05) #4 Hard … (4/5) DF - No Value - Pass Race
R06) #4 Lil Ki … (2/1) VF - Failed 2 of 6 Factors as FTS
R07) #4 Tiz …… (4/5) DF - No Value - Pass Race
R08) #11 Sto … (5/2) FF - Failed 5 of 6 Factors
R09) #4 Sign … (8/5) VF - Failed 3 of 6 Factors
R10) None ….…. 350 Yard Race

DF = Deserved Favorite (public will favor and factors support their decision)
VF = Vulnerable Favorite (public will like but factors detract from favoritism)
FF = False Favorite (public will like but factors suggest they are mistaken)
FTS = First Time Starter

DanH

[ReplayRandall]

Dan, I'd be interested in seeing what you come up with at Saratoga and Del Mar....Give it a try.

[Dan H]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Dan, I'd be interested in seeing what you come up with at Saratoga and Del Mar....Give it a try.

Me too.

For now, I'm limiting my testing to small tracks, small purses, and small fields. Plus, this exercise took about 2 hours this morning and the results aren't actionable (yet).

But it is a long-term goal to crack the SAR and DMR favorites puzzle. The irony is that I bought Trainer Moves to save time and look at me ... 2 hours per card to find false favorites ... and I still can't find the winners!

I might try DMR this weekend if Indiana Grand turns promising. Thanks for the interest.

[Dan H]

Results - Indiana Grand 2021 07 20 False Favorite Predictions

R01) #6 Over … (5/2) DF - Off at 8/5 - Second - Winner paid $13.60
R02) #3 Ceci …. (8/5) VF - Off at 2/1 - Second - Winner paid $5.40
R03) #5 Cha ….. (9/5) FF - Off at 8/5 - Second - Winner paid $5.00
R04) #3 Lem …. (6/5) DF - Off at 3/2 - Fourth - Winner paid $9.80
R05) #4 Hard … (4/5) DF - Off at 4/5 - Won
R06) #4 Lil Ki … (2/1) VF - Off at 7/2 - Fourth - Winner paid $5.00
R07) #4 Tiz …… (4/5) DF - Off at 2/5 - Won
R08) #11 Sto … (5/2) FF - Off at 2/1 - Second - Winner paid $5.00
R09) #4 Sign …. (8/5) VF - Off at 7/5 - Second - Winner paid $13.00
R10) None ….…. 350 Yard Race

Inconclusive, but still telling:
- Two of 4 Deserved Favorites (DFs) Won
- Three of 3 Vulnerable Favorites (VFs) did not Win
- Two of 2 False Favorites (FFs) did not Win

This may simply point to flaws in the M/L odds, a job I don’t envy.

DanH

[NorCalGreg]

Hey Dan:

Was curious what you consider when determining a "deserved favorite". I just looked at the 1st race--6 horse field of maiden claimers--3 of whom are making their first start.
The 3 that have made a start don't show anything to take notice of--wondering why you chose the ml fav as the "deserving favorite"?

Also here's a tip concerning maidens...they only go down in class--not up. Maiden claimers almost never move up to MSW, or even higher claim amounts, and win. Remember that and save yourself some money.

Good luck,

-NCG

[Dan H]

Indiana Grand 2021 07 21 False Favorite Predictions using TMoves and BRIS pp’s

(After scratches)

R01) #1 CP .… (2/1) VF - Failed 3 of 5 Factors (bias, class, placement)
R02) #4 IH …. (2/1) DF - Failed 1 of 5 Factors (pace)
R03) #5 VW .. (8/5) DF - Failed 0 of 5 Factors
R04) #2 MS … (5/2) FF - Failed 4 of 5 Factors (bias, pace, class, placement)
R05) #6 MM .. (2/1) DF - Failed 1 of 5 Factors (speed)
R06) #5 TG …. (9/5) FF - Failed 3 of 5 Factors (bias, placement, speed)
R07) #4 MC ... (6/5) DF - Failed 0 of 5 Factors
R08) #3 PP ….. (5/2) FF - Failed 4 of 5 Factors (bias, pace, placement, speed)
R09) #2 HC …. (6/5) VF - Failed 1 of 5 Factors (bias) in with LRH
R10) None ..… 2F Race

DF = Deserved Favorite (public will favor and factors support their decision)
VF = Vulnerable Favorite (public will like but factors detract from favoritism)
FF = False Favorite (public will like but factors suggest they are mistaken)
LRH = Lightly Raced Horses

[Dan H]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Hey Dan:

... 1st race--6 horse field of maiden claimers ... wondering why you chose the ml fav as the "deserving favorite"?

Greg, the real purpose of this exercise is to give myself a reason(s) to identify races I should pass. I lack that discipline, but am working on it.

A deserved favorite signals me to move along and find value in races with VFs and FFs.

Now, in the end, there was value in the race you cited (a $13.60 winner), but my process (and the betting public) didn't see it when handicapping.

And finally, I would rather be wrong on the horses I call deserved, than wrong on the ones I find as vulnerable or false.

Thanks for piping in.

[NorCalGreg]

[Dan H]

R01) #1 CP … (2/1) VF - Off at 7/5 - Third - Winner paid $11.00
R02) #4 IH …. (2/1) DF - Off at 3/2 - Third - Winner paid $23.20
R03) #5 VW .. (8/5) DF - Off at 9/5 - Won
R04) #2 MS … (5/2) FF - Off at 7/2 - Fourth - Winner paid $14.00
R05) #6 MM . (2/1) DF - Off at 2/1 - Won
R06) #5 TG … (9/5) FF - Off at 9/5 - Second - Winner paid $12.00
R07) #4 MC .. (6/5) DF - Off at 1/2 - Won
R08) #3 PP … (5/2) FF - Off at 5/2 - Won and paid $7.80
R09) #2 HC … (6/5) VF - Off at 6/2 - Fourth - Winner paid $18.80
R10) None … 2F Race

This exercise is over. It only proves that on a small track, with small purses, and small fields, a handicapper can outsmart a severely disadvantaged track morning lines odds-maker.

DanH

[Dan H]

These predictions are not part of a test or exercise. They are my first attempt to predict DF, VF, and FFs at a major track. Use for entertainment only:

(Before Scratches)

R01) #2 WAA .. (8/5) VF - Not factored- MDNs - LRH and FTS
R02) #4 MF ….. (5/2) DF - Failed 1 of 6 Factors - (placement)
R03) #4 MC .... (3/1) VF - Failed 4 of 6 Factors - (pace, class, speed, TMoves)
R04) #2 BE ….. (8/5) DF - Failed 0 of 6 Factors
R05) #6 RY ….. (3/1) FF - Failed 5 of 6 Factors - (placement, pace, class, speed, TMoves)
R06) #6 CMD .. (3/1) VF - Failed 2 of 6 Factors - (speed, TMoves)
R07) #1 FFP …. (5/2) VF - Failed 4 of 6 Factors - (pace, class, speed, TMoves)
R08) #12 RBN . (5/2) DF - Failed 1 of 6 Factors - (TMoves)

DF = Deserved Favorite (public will favor and factors support their decision)
VF = Vulnerable Favorite (public will like but factors detract from favoritism)
FF = False Favorite (public will like but factors suggest they are mistaken)
LRH = Lighty Raced Horse(s)
FTS = First Time Starter(s)

[green80]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Hey Dan:

Was curious what you consider when determining a "deserved favorite". I just looked at the 1st race--6 horse field of maiden claimers--3 of whom are making their first start.
The 3 that have made a start don't show anything to take notice of--wondering why you chose the ml fav as the "deserving favorite"?

Also here's a tip concerning maidens...they only go down in class--not up. Maiden claimers almost never move up to MSW, or even higher claim amounts, and win. Remember that and save yourself some money.

Good luck,

-NCG

Since you are talking about maidens, checking back the last 90 days most of my double digit winners came from maiden races.