Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 02-15-2018, 10:05 AM   #16
Ruffian1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 854
Quote:
Originally Posted by Si2see View Post
Good information in this thread.

You know I never realized about the right eye, but one of my handicapping partners always likes it if when a speed horse begins to be collared, the rider lets them out another notch to stay clear.


Also below is something he has taught me about speed horses ( which is actually the number 1 issue with my game in the past finding and using speed horses, knowing which to play, and something he has helped me tremendously, along with my other partner Picsix )......

There are certain riders who are great at riding the final turn, and putting separation on the field entering the stretch, and there are some who will constantly let a speed horse get swallowed up. This is something you should try to learn at whatever circuits you are playing.

Jason

1. Yes. The right eye is why the jock lets them out a notch.

2. Knowing riders styles and strengths was huge as far as I was concerned. Some riders have a strength as a speed rider and some have more strength as a position or take back rider. When left with a split second decision, the riders instinct and confidence of one or the other will usually rule the decision.


If you play at a track, knowing riders, in my mind is essential. People talk about taking an edge and this is an area where it indeed is an edge to know the colony or riders and their riding styles.
You can have a better shot at predicting pace when you know which riders are more suited on the lead and which riders are more content to sit early on.

If someone struggles learning the jocks, try this. Don't bet much or at all for as long as it takes to at least get started. I say don't bet because you will watch your horse and not every rider in the race. Watch every race but do handicap for speed, pace and position.

Watch each jock for the first 10 seconds of the race. You will need to watch replays several times. Also watch speed duels to see who will back off after a bit and who will not. Compare that to the form of the horse . Also compare the form when another rider rode the horse previously.

Their hands and elbows are the key areas to look at.

Then watch from the 1/2 mile pole ( red pole just before the far turn at a mile track)to the 3/8ths pole( green and white pole about a third of the way around the far turn at a mile track). This is a telling part of the race. Almost every jock tells you who they are in those 12 seconds.

This will take about 3-4 weeks to get a starting handle on things. Less if you put more time into past replays.
As this time goes by, you can start to bet but continue to take notes on this. Within a few months you will have a solid set of notes on the entire jocks room. Constantly verify your notes to make any adjustments necessary. Do this for as many tracks as you like.

If you want to know who will do what in an early pace speed duel , this is how you do it.

There are speed riders and then there are SPEED riders. Same with patient riders. Its not all just black or white. This is especially true at the major tracks. The best riders in the U.S. usually have more diversity in their styles. But not always.
But other than a few circuits, most colonies are solidly in one group or another.

This is no knock on any riders. It is just history from what I saw everyday for a long time.
And to be fair to jocks, most trainers were the same way. Almost all of them have strengths and weaknesses. Most won't admit it, and I don't blame them, but they do.

Looking forward, how sweet would it be to see in the future for 12 seconds out of the gate before betting the race ? Well, it's not quite all that, but it's a start.

Lastly, I was taught that, the more you see, the more you see.
It seemed so hard at the time to work towards that. But it didn't take THAT long for the fog to start lifting.

Sure hope some of you try it. I don't think you will look back on it as a waste of time.

Hope this helps.
Ruffian1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-15-2018, 10:37 AM   #17
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,118
I have to say thanks, Ruffian1, enjoy reading your posts. When I started handicapping, I spent a lot of time handicapping 1 track, Delta Downs. Speed rider I loved to watch was Saenz. A rider that was very good stalking the pace is G Melancon. C J Hernandez was versatile, even when things did not go well at the beak, he was able to get a good run. All of them had 1 thing in common, when the gate opened, they were in riding position in the first 1 or 2 jumps.

Would like you to expand on one comment.

Their hands and elbows are the key areas to look at.

What are you looking at or for?
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-16-2018, 06:59 AM   #18
Ruffian1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 854
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
I have to say thanks, Ruffian1, enjoy reading your posts. When I started handicapping, I spent a lot of time handicapping 1 track, Delta Downs. Speed rider I loved to watch was Saenz. A rider that was very good stalking the pace is G Melancon. C J Hernandez was versatile, even when things did not go well at the beak, he was able to get a good run. All of them had 1 thing in common, when the gate opened, they were in riding position in the first 1 or 2 jumps.

Would like you to expand on one comment.

Their hands and elbows are the key areas to look at.

What are you looking at or for?
It is my pleasure Jay.

I have been thinking about how to best explain it and I think that the best way to actually see it is to watch a few CharlesTown replays going 4 1/2 F.

Here is what to look for.

The hands will probably be 1/3rd the way up the neck as they are leaving the chute and on to the main track. Maybe more at C.T.
Once they establish position, the urging should subside for a while unless they are getting outrun .
If they are moving back and forth going upward as they move forward, like towards 10 o'clock, that is asking but not all out asking. If they are doing the same urging but are moving downward as the rider extends their hands, like towards 8 o'clock, that is full out urging.
The elbows will probably be more tucked into the horses neck if the hands are moving up towards 10 o'clock but the elbows will be out and away from the neck if they are all out and towards 8 o'clock.
Try making a fist with each hand and having your knuckles touch with your arms extended. Your elbows will be touching your body. Now bring your hands in towards your chest with the same fist and knuckles touching and your elbows go outside your body. That is the visual difference in amount of urging you are looking for.
The style in which a certain rider will leave the gate will give you a heads up on how aggressive the rider is early on.
As you know, the hands very still and in the riders lap, at the base of the horses neck is no urging at all and trying for relaxation.
Hope I explained this well enough.
Ruffian1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-16-2018, 11:28 AM   #19
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,118
Thank you, like you said, a written explanation on this is the hard part. I know what I like when I see it, but I could not explain it. What you wrote matches what I like to see. Race 7 at Delta last night is a classic example of this. What I really like here is about a quarter way around the turn the jockey starts to extend the lead and wins the race there, instead of letting the pressure get to him.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-16-2018, 11:42 AM   #20
jahura2
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 316
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruffian1 View Post
It is my pleasure Jay.

I have been thinking about how to best explain it and I think that the best way to actually see it is to watch a few CharlesTown replays going 4 1/2 F.

Here is what to look for.

The hands will probably be 1/3rd the way up the neck as they are leaving the chute and on to the main track. Maybe more at C.T.
Once they establish position, the urging should subside for a while unless they are getting outrun .
If they are moving back and forth going upward as they move forward, like towards 10 o'clock, that is asking but not all out asking. If they are doing the same urging but are moving downward as the rider extends their hands, like towards 8 o'clock, that is full out urging.
The elbows will probably be more tucked into the horses neck if the hands are moving up towards 10 o'clock but the elbows will be out and away from the neck if they are all out and towards 8 o'clock.
Try making a fist with each hand and having your knuckles touch with your arms extended. Your elbows will be touching your body. Now bring your hands in towards your chest with the same fist and knuckles touching and your elbows go outside your body. That is the visual difference in amount of urging you are looking for.
The style in which a certain rider will leave the gate will give you a heads up on how aggressive the rider is early on.
As you know, the hands very still and in the riders lap, at the base of the horses neck is no urging at all and trying for relaxation.
Hope I explained this well enough.
Thanks for the lessons Ruffian. I have always made mental notes on jocks and tendencies but tend to generalize things and put riders under only the "good" or "bad" category and then just label them permanently. Not a good idea on my part. You have given me some tools to get better at identifying riders strengths and weaknesses
Despite straying from the original topic a bit this has been a most useful thread. I hope more people with insight will chip in.
jahura2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply





Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:54 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.