How do you handicap grass races?

[GMB@BP]

So two weeks in at Saratoga I am now 0/14 in turf races.

Not sure really what to do at this point. I have been betting good barns and good riders. Been playing horses who have been coming off some kind of trip or another, be it trouble or pace, or just a combination of bad things that muddied their form. I have detailed notes on every race run in NY for 2 months.

I have bet against a favorite who comes off two straight slow pace on the lead choke jobs only to see them set a fast pace and beat a superior field today.

Or horses who have gotten no pace, had to steady yet ran well then today they have a clear trip only to run moderately to run 2nd or 3rd.

I have bet horses with some pace only to watch them be strangled into submission in a race with no pace.

Its like these horses just take turns against each other with the riders doing their part to make it as random as possible.

Heck I am 0/3 betting Chad Brown horses, two were odds on singles in multi race bets.

On dirt I am 5/12. Slim pickings though betting dirt races in NYRA. You have to handicap grass races to play multi race bets there, usually especially the late Pick 4.

Suggestions?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

So two weeks in at Saratoga I am now 0/14 in turf races.

Try it out at Gulfstream for a while...so you could be 0/28.

My best advice for handicapping the grass races? PASS them...and concentrate on the dirt. The turf is an acquired taste, IMO...and I hesitate to believe the bettors who claim to excel at it.

[n.c]

races, i end up losing more tracks i bet, more i lose

so really have cut down on the races, and pretty much sticking with MSW..if i am up, then i might jump into MCL with large fields.

Usually start with win/place , and if i am up, then go with exotics.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Do what you do.

Don't go stat hunting and trying to figure out what is wrong with your 'capping.

You know your stuff. You've done the work, and will continue to do the work.

Nose to the grindstone and work through it.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Try Del Mar turf. I'm a 25% on both Saratoga's turf courses. Am a 40% right now at Del Mar. I've been seeing chalk and nonsense at Toga. The best bets are good horses with bad trainers. Everybody is betting connections at the meet. I am the anti trainer handicapper!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Do what you do.

Don't go stat hunting and trying to figure out what is wrong with your 'capping.

You know your stuff. You've done the work, and will continue to do the work.

Nose to the grindstone and work through it.

Good advice LDH. One thing I've learned at these super meets=you can be dunce cap one day and king of the hill the next. Don't get discouraged is the best advice. Swing the bat. Only way you can hit.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Do what you do.

Don't go stat hunting and trying to figure out what is wrong with your 'capping.

You know your stuff. You've done the work, and will continue to do the work.

Nose to the grindstone and work through it.

Its the randomness that I think is the issue.

Form only means so much in these races. You really cant project pace because all the riders grab for the most part. So that creates randomness.

You cant seem to correlate pace trip handicapping because as I stated it really does not seem to play. Give me a horse who closed into a slow pace and now gets a better set up on dirt, thats an auto play for me, on turf, random.

Trips in the race, just like all turf racing, is highly important...but again thats a bit unpredictable with the best riders in the world.

At this point I think its best just to use 4-7 horses in the multi race bets in large fields and maybe 2-3 in smaller fields. Take the best barns and closing figures.

I always rewatch and rehandicap the races to see what I missed. Many times you can say yea I can see that now but again you usually can do that with 2/3rds of the field at saratoga.

[deelo]

On turf, most of the racing is done in the stretch. Look for horses whose form is progressing toward more explosive stretch runs while also being in striking range of the pace.

For longshots, find a horse that originally ran competitive at some point of his earlier turf races but not quite good enough. Then later on laid off a while and came back to put up a much improved dirt performance then came back fast to try turf once again. I've hit tons of 20/1s, a few 50/1s, and even a 70/1 on this in the last year.

[JustRalph]

You made me curious. I made a database for the SAR meet.

at the cost of $12.50 from BRIS btw.........

Winners seem to be coming from all over the place on turf in sprints.

But I did notice that in routes 80% of winners, or 24 out of 30 were

Prime Power 1-4

You might think chalky........but Prime 2 and 3 would be worthy

Dirt routes arent' much different..... but it's the only real pattern I can see without digging a little deeper......

If my memory serves me right......the turf can turn in a day or two to a huge bias to speed. Catching it depends on the weather I believe. Being ahead of it is tough though

[burnsy]

Right now, at Saratoga you have to pay attention to pace horses. Until it rains again its best to be prominent early in most races where a price hits. This especially applies to the inner turf course the most. Even if the lead horse does not win it runs second or third a good portion of the time. And the winner is usually in close proximity of the pace early on. I'm stubborn and stick to it, the first week I got burned pretty good, but the course has stiffened up and the last couple of days have been a parade of pace horses. Sunday there was a horse cutting back that routinely runs 6 lengths in the clear. Well, at a mile that horse took off and never looked back, at 8-1. It doesn't work every race but the prices you get when it does, is well worth the wait. I guarantee it works more than 0-14 too. It usually works at least once a day when the weather gets dry and hot. I started the meet off awful, the track was playing fair. The last couple days, Sunday and Monday, all the surfaces are speed favoring. When you get these conditions its a speed bonanza and the prices are glorious.

Its pretty simple and yesterday was easy pickings. The last 3 races on the card were speed, speed and more speed, and the payoffs were more than generous. When a horse like Morticia is 2-1, you gotta be all over picks and doubles on that bullet. People make it so complicated, when this place is usually speed favoring. When it isn't and a parade of chalk keeps winning that's when I'm usually losing.....so I pray for this kind of weather. Its worked for me for years up here. When I was young the older guys taught me to handicap where horses would be at the half, you will find many good things from horses that are prominent at that point. Believe me.

[Dahoss9698]

I always find it funny the people that find it easy NEVER have pre race opinions. Not knocking anyone, but just stating my opinion. I rarely see the people who are smart after the races being smart before the races.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

I always find it funny the people that find it easy NEVER have pre race opinions. Not knocking anyone, but just stating my opinion. I rarely see the people who are smart after the races being smart before the races.

Could it be that they don't want anyone to piggy-back on their action?

Plus...don't forget that there are some guys out there who will even stoop to hacking into a winning player's betting account...so they could subsequently SELL the guy's horizontal-wager picks, for a tidy profit. If you are a "winning player"...you gotta be careful out there.

[Jeff P]

That last part is a bit disconcerting.

Care to elaborate? (Privately if need be.)


-jp

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[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

That last part is a bit disconcerting.

Care to elaborate? (Privately if need be.)


-jp

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He was joking. One of our ruled-off beloved regulars came with that theory.

[Jeff P]

Got it.


-jp

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