Travers

[menifee]

Man, these 3yo stink.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Tarred and Feathered.

Couldn't be more wrong.

LDH you are one of my favorite handicappers to talk turkey too. We both know this is par for the course! Great Man-Ness! Rare these days!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Tom

The West Coast is the Best Coast.
They know how to train them, they know how to ride them.

So much for the Triple Crown winners, Moe, Larry and Curly.
knuck knuck knuck.


What do these east coast guys need when Baffert comes to town?

Very nice Tom! A few people at the fight tonight were asking me about the race today. It ended up a Baffert dissertation! I started playing in 96 and Baffert had a nose loss in KYD. Nobody has been greater since. And he earned it. Love this post here brother!

[Tom]

It is nice of NYRA to put on these monster race cards to showcase....the Baffert Barn and Mike Smith's riding abilities. They should have kept the inner - don't think he shipped too many there. Kind of a NYRA trainer safe spot.

[n.c]

"People know I don’t ship there just to watch them run around the track,”

[Tom]

New NYRA condition...."Weight, 122lbs. For horses trained by Bob Baffert, 158 lbs."

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Tom

New NYRA condition...."Weight, 122lbs. For horses trained by Bob Baffert, 158 lbs."

ur rolling man, made me laugh

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Tarred and Feathered.

Couldn't be more wrong.

No need for that. Many have egg on their face after a race. Love the energy you bring to this board.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

New NYRA condition...."Weight, 122lbs. For horses trained by Bob Baffert, 158 lbs."

He's making it tougher to play these major stakes. West Coast probably would have been around 10/1 or 12/1 if he was trained by anyone other than Baffert. I threw him onto my exotic tickets at 6-1 because I didn't want to get beat by another of his horses that jumped way up for a big race and not because I thought his last race (against a weaker field on an outside track at LRC) was so powerful. I didn't cash anyway, but I don't enjoy playing Grade 1 stakes the way I play claiming races with suspected juicers. I don't want to throw horses onto my tickets out of fear instead of conviction about how good they are.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

He's making it tougher to play these major stakes. West Coast probably would have been around 10/1 or 12/1 if he was trained by anyone other than Baffert. I threw him onto my exotic tickets at 6-1 because I didn't want to get beat by another of his horses that jumped way up for a big race and not because I thought his last race (against a weaker field on an outside track at LRC) was so powerful.

This is a little over the top in my opinion.

West Coast came into the race with consecutive Beyers of 99 and 100. That equaled post-time favorite Good Samaritan's 100 in the Jim Dandy. The highest Beyer for the year to date from this field was the 102s registered by both classic winners, both of whom were coming off poor performances (twice over in the case of Always Dreaming).

West Coast has been hyped well in advance of the race. In fact, he had already shipped back east and took down a modest prize on the Belmont undercard, easily defeating Outplay, who outside of that loss has won his last 4 starts including the Curlin Stakes, a Travers prep that has produced BC Classic winner Blame, Travers winner VE Day, and Cigar Mile winner Connect in its brief history.

In post race comments after the Easy Goer, Baffert stated that his original intention that day was to run West Coast in the Belmont Stakes, but that he wasn't progressing quite as nicely as he hoped at that stage.

West Coast also signaled his class (relative to this modest bunch of 3yos) well in advance of the race in the Lexington. Off a lone maiden win, West Coast went to Keeneland and just got beat on the line by Senior Investment. Senior Investment came off that win to run 3rd in the Preakness, beating 3 rivals that reappeared in the Travers (Always Dreaming, Gunnevera, Lookin At Lee).

Its rare in this day an age with "scientific" training and small foal crops and myriads of stakes races competing for the same horses, but carefully managing a horse in allowance races and lesser stakes prior to a "coming out" party of sorts has always been the ideal method of getting a good horse to realize its full potential. This sort of management is nothing new, it is simply rare nowadays, and guys like Baffert and Pletcher--who have an embarrassment of riches in terms of stock--can afford to do it, especially when said horses are not able to make the Triple Crown.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

He's making it tougher to play these major stakes. West Coast probably would have been around 10/1 or 12/1 if he was trained by anyone other than Baffert. I threw him onto my exotic tickets at 6-1 because I didn't want to get beat by another of his horses that jumped way up for a big race and not because I thought his last race (against a weaker field on an outside track at LRC) was so powerful. I didn't cash anyway, but I don't enjoy playing Grade 1 stakes the way I play claiming races with suspected juicers. I don't want to throw horses onto my tickets out of fear instead of conviction about how good they are.

I dont believe the guy who gets the best dirt stock in the world happens to be juicing, just like I didnt believe Bobby Franekl was juicing his turf horses.

[deathandgravity]

Baffert/Smith/1 ¼ at Saratoga.. +79% ROI (in my incomplete database)
That was enough for me throw the horse in on my P4.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

This is a little over the top in my opinion.

West Coast came into the race with consecutive Beyers of 99 and 100. That equaled post-time favorite Good Samaritan's 100 in the Jim Dandy. The highest Beyer for the year to date from this field was the 102s registered by both classic winners, both of whom were coming off poor performances (twice over in the case of Always Dreaming).

West Coast has been hyped well in advance of the race. In fact, he had already shipped back east and took down a modest prize on the Belmont undercard, easily defeating Outplay, who outside of that loss has won his last 4 starts including the Curlin Stakes, a Travers prep that has produced BC Classic winner Blame, Travers winner VE Day, and Cigar Mile winner Connect in its brief history.

In post race comments after the Easy Goer, Baffert stated that his original intention that day was to run West Coast in the Belmont Stakes, but that he wasn't progressing quite as nicely as he hoped at that stage.

West Coast also signaled his class (relative to this modest bunch of 3yos) well in advance of the race in the Lexington. Off a lone maiden win, West Coast went to Keeneland and just got beat on the line by Senior Investment. Senior Investment came off that win to run 3rd in the Preakness, beating 3 rivals that reappeared in the Travers (Always Dreaming, Gunnevera, Lookin At Lee).

Its rare in this day an age with "scientific" training and small foal crops and myriads of stakes races competing for the same horses, but carefully managing a horse in allowance races and lesser stakes prior to a "coming out" party of sorts has always been the ideal method of getting a good horse to realize its full potential. This sort of management is nothing new, it is simply rare nowadays, and guys like Baffert and Pletcher--who have an embarrassment of riches in terms of stock--can afford to do it, especially when said horses are not able to make the Triple Crown.

I really like this analysis of West Coast, because it is a nice demonstration of the value of class handicapping even in this day and age of ever more precise numbers. Here's a horse whose ability could really best be seen by analyzing who he had run against.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Tapwrit has zero chance.

This was a dumb statement. If the flow was very forward-favoring, Tapwrit had a chance to get a sweet trip.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

As a fan, you really want to like Cloud Computing. He's the quality horse, and he figures to improve with more of a stalking style and less of a pressing style. An efficient stalking trip is no guarantee (we could see a repeat of the poor decision to track/press that we saw in the Jim Dandy). Also have to consider that an efficient race from CC is not necessarily a dominant race.

I think Serling ended up picking him. Seemed to be an honest value, but his no-show in the Jim Dandy, along with Travers hindsight brings to question his standing in the division. Had to use Cloud Computing on your tickets. I picked him 3rd, and I used him with forwardly placed horses and West Coast.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

West Coast is clearly dangerous. He is trained by team Baffert, and shown enough quality thus far. He's relatively unproven, and appears to be a touch on the 'sluggish' side (normally better for the 3rd/4th position), but his stamina advantage could put him in contention. He will be ridden with confidence, and should at least be a part of any late flow.

He was the only horse that looked ready/capable to run a big 'A' race. Good value @ 6-1 fourth choice when he was the most likely winner. Not tremendous value. Tactics were a big surprise. Was 'supposed to' make a middle-move into a slow pace and then out-last the other forwardly placed horses to contend for the win. I had him on top, and as a key.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

It would be a mild upset if Always Dreaming were to run a strong race. However, even in this high-quality Travers, there isn't much quality forwardly-placed speed in this race. He's got a puncher's chance if he were to run his 'A'. I fully expect him to be empty again in the stretch. Fayeq is a threat to press from the wide draw. Neither should be in the superfecta without a soft, pace-less race.

He was really embarrassed! Was only expected to run half a quality race, but mike smith ate johnny and AD's lunch, and nobody even noticed their presence. Some people actually picked him, due to his threat of wiring the field. I had him 4th. I thought a forward-favoring pace would help him hit the board. There was a puncher's-chance that he could wire. Tactics surprised me. Passive and sluggish vs aggressive and sharp.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Irap looks like a trap. He's much more fun to root for, than to bet on. Would be a great story if he puts it all together, but it's more likely that he makes no impact. Their best hope probably involves attending the pace. Would be ironic, if Irap were to conservatively attend a slow pace, and then inherit a strong position, and actually change leads, while Always Dreaming stops and Fayeq sputters on the wrong lead.

I realized before post that he would get a good trip, and that aside from West Coast there wasn't anyone in this field who would run a big 'A' race(and that a good trip 'B' from Irap was a contending trip). I had him 2nd because of that opinion. Just the same, he was poor value @ 5.8-1.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

McCraken, Gunnevera, Good Samaritan are all kind of in the same 'quality horse with style, trip dependent' category of horses that can fill out a trifecta or superfecta, or need things to fall apart. If it becomes a wide-open cavalry charge, these will likely at least be involved.

You had 3 quality pace-dependent horses with about the same chance, and wildly different odds.
Good Samaritan was just an unbelievable underlay. He may have been about the 4th-x(4th-7th?) best horse in the race, but he was also very pace dependent.
Gunnevera was a good value. Seven times the price of Good Samaritan with about the same chances. McCraken was about fair value.
There was a degree of randomness with this grouping, and it just happened to be the value this time. Could have easily been the crazy underlay.
I keyed West Coast over this group, -but only with like running styles, (not this group mixed with irap,tapwrit,CC,AD), so I zig-zagged out of it.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Happy with my selections in terms of most likely winners/multis.
Did not expect any of the 3 pace-dependent stretch runners to mix with the forward horses in the vertical exotics. Thought it would either be a dead forward flow, or a cavalry charge.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

This is a little over the top in my opinion.

West Coast came into the race with consecutive Beyers of 99 and 100. That equaled post-time favorite Good Samaritan's 100 in the Jim Dandy. The highest Beyer for the year to date from this field was the 102s registered by both classic winners, both of whom were coming off poor performances (twice over in the case of Always Dreaming).

West Coast has been hyped well in advance of the race. In fact, he had already shipped back east and took down a modest prize on the Belmont undercard, easily defeating Outplay, who outside of that loss has won his last 4 starts including the Curlin Stakes, a Travers prep that has produced BC Classic winner Blame, Travers winner VE Day, and Cigar Mile winner Connect in its brief history.

In post race comments after the Easy Goer, Baffert stated that his original intention that day was to run West Coast in the Belmont Stakes, but that he wasn't progressing quite as nicely as he hoped at that stage.

West Coast also signaled his class (relative to this modest bunch of 3yos) well in advance of the race in the Lexington. Off a lone maiden win, West Coast went to Keeneland and just got beat on the line by Senior Investment. Senior Investment came off that win to run 3rd in the Preakness, beating 3 rivals that reappeared in the Travers (Always Dreaming, Gunnevera, Lookin At Lee).

Its rare in this day an age with "scientific" training and small foal crops and myriads of stakes races competing for the same horses, but carefully managing a horse in allowance races and lesser stakes prior to a "coming out" party of sorts has always been the ideal method of getting a good horse to realize its full potential. This sort of management is nothing new, it is simply rare nowadays, and guys like Baffert and Pletcher--who have an embarrassment of riches in terms of stock--can afford to do it, especially when said horses are not able to make the Triple Crown.

I didn't say he was a bad horse. I said he would have been 10-1 or 12-1 in a field that deep if he was trained by anyone other than Baffert. I heard multiple people whose opinion I respect say in podcasts they were throwing him on fear of another Baffert jump up. That's why I threw him in. The fact of the matter is he did jump way up.

Just for the record (not saying I am necessarily right), but IMO that Los Al field was weak, in hindsight the Beyer figure looks somewhat inflated, and all the talk about how much ground he lost that day missed the fact that the rail was probably dead. Even if it wasn't dead, most horses were making wide moves that day just like they often do at Los Al.