Who will win the Derby?

[jocko699]

My play will be #10 Gunnevera but only at 12-1 or higher. I did like Girvin before hearing about the quarter crack. Lets have a safe race!!!!

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I'm sneaking out to SHRP around midnight to bet a maiden in the Derby....

Wow! 35-40 people playing Australia at SHRP at midnight.

It was a grimey looking group

[fiznow]

Hey all, cant find anything negative about Girvin, especially at 16-1. Looks pretty solid and good to me, even better with Mike Smith aboard. Good luck!

[deathandgravity]

Crunched the numbers
Consulted the starts
Sacrificed a small woodland creature @ midnight..
Countless hours on the PPs

wide open...

Go with Big Money Mike:

Girvin
Irish War Cry
Classic Empire

[Tom]

My Top Picks

McCracken
Classic Empire
Tapwrit
Gunnevera
Practical Joker
Irish War Cry
Thunder Snow
J Boys Echo

Hey, Secretariat lost the Wood.....McCracken should be ready to move ahead, Classic Empire looks like he ready move past last year's top as well.

Thunder Snow the ??? Did he get a 108 TF of a 115 Cj has in his Derby spreadsheet?

The 115 puts him up a notch or three for me.

I suspect bleeding explains why Irish War Cried and lasix explains his bounce back.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by fiznow

Hey all, cant find anything negative about Girvin, especially at 16-1. Looks pretty solid and good to me, even better with Mike Smith aboard. Good luck!

Quarter crack on the inside wall of the right foot. Missed a workout on April 22nd. Reg Jockey (Hernandez) choose McCraken over Girvin. Stormcat sire line is zero for 59 for the win in the derby. All fairly negative.

That said Mike Smith is YUGE ... and the work on the 29th shows he's fit to run. At his current odds.... there's enough of a buffer that it's a good bet. good luck fiznow.

[lansdale]

For me, handicapping now down to KD and BC. Much as I hate to disagree with the estimable Thaskalos, felt I had to leave out AD. So:

1. Classic Empire
2. McCracken
3. Irish War Cry
4. Practical Joke

[michiken]

Swinging for the fences with J boys echo.

13/all and all/13 in the exacta.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by djm1959

i suck at the derby pickin the winner,,, so if i give you 19 choices,, you would win with the one i leave out

Give us your 19. I have no clue and need all the help I can get.

[Maximillion]

going with State of Honor

[ribjig]

Classic Empire now 7/1.
Look for late drop in odds towards ML 4/1...?
Some will interpret as smart money & jump on, causing further drop...?
But it may mask true smart money triggering other drop(s) in odd(s)...
If no other smart money indicated, then...!!!

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by ribjig

Classic Empire now 7/1.
Look for late drop in odds towards ML 4/1...?
Some will interpret as smart money & jump on, causing further drop...?
But it may mask true smart money triggering other drop(s) in odd(s)...
If no other smart money indicated, then...!!!

If that horse goes from 7 to 4 that would be some serious bet down.

[Simple Syrup]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

going with State of Honor

Sorry, that's who I bet. History says that won't end well.

[ribjig]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

If that horse goes from 7 to 4 that would be some serious bet down.

Insiders collectively betting ~$2M late would do it, AFAICT.
But even $1M would trigger non-insider late betting pile-on...?
(late = final few minutes)

[fiznow]

Originally Posted by Michael

Quarter crack on the inside wall of the right foot. Missed a workout on April 22nd. Reg Jockey (Hernandez) choose McCraken over Girvin. Stormcat sire line is zero for 59 for the win in the derby. All fairly negative.

That said Mike Smith is YUGE ... and the work on the 29th shows he's fit to run. At his current odds.... there's enough of a buffer that it's a good bet. good luck fiznow.

Ty Michael but with the current track condition it's more lottery than horse racing or better said more swimming than running. So everything is possible . I just hope all horses come home save.