G1 Whitney - 8/4/18

[AltonKelsey]

If they didn't seal it for that deluge, the track would have been unusable .


To hell with the horizontals .

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by Tom

OK, the Whitney.

I'm thinking the pace today will be between 128-132.
Here are the numbers for two trun routes - Pace of the race and PF of the horse.

Tapwrit ran a 126-117 at Tampa and a 129-124 at Toga around two-turns. Stretch to win this one

Backyard Heaven ran a 136-119 last time, after two new tops this year. He ran a 131-130 two back and could race back to that or move ahead a bit - strong contender today

Dalmore has run against 129-136-128 and put up PFs of 123-124-125

Mind Your Biscuits - never been around two turn - can't like him in here.

Discreet Lover - too slow and can't run with G1 or 2 horses.

Diversity - 128-130 at Toga and a 127-132 over the Inner - one to beat

Good Samaritan - 131-123 and 136-125 around two turns - contender

McCracken - 128-123 and 126-120 around two turns - bottom of exotics only

9-5
5-1
6-1
6-1

At 48-1 the 3 is worth a win show shot

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[Tee]

Backyard Heaven

[NY BRED]

I'm mystified why this race was moved to Saratoga;

Track configuration at the Spa obviously bears no resemblance to Belmont.

Include the insane weather for the past week and late yesterday, and
I believe just maybe this race returns to Belmont.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by NY BRED

I'm mystified why this race was moved to Saratoga;

Track configuration at the Spa obviously bears no resemblance to Belmont.

Include the insane weather for the past week and late yesterday, and
I believe just maybe this race returns to Belmont.

The Whitney has historically been at Saratoga and has a short run into the turn.

The Woodward was at Belmont previously and was moved because of the lenghthening of the SAR season and because trainers want more spacing between it and the JCGC and BC.

[classhandicapper]

If I were the connections of Mind Your Biscuits I would give him one more shot going 9F. No matter how you slice it, Diversify is very good right now. But Saratoga has had a few days this meet when the track was very sloppy and speed was iron. There's no way of telling what the track was like for the Whitney, but I'm going to guess it was nothing like it was early in the day and if it helped anyone it was Diversify. He's probably just the better horse anyway, but it could be closer than it looks.

[Robert Fischer]

Wasn't like it was a horrible adverse Whitney for MYB.

They break near the turn. He was ok entering the backstretch. The race was soft, other than Diversify, although Backyard Heaven had potential going into the race, and some of Mott's runners have moved-up lately, so there were some pre-race hopes for Good Samaritan (i think he may have opened an cringe-worthy 7/2)...

MYB ran fine. Didn't he run 2nd or something? That was perfectly fine with a good opportunity...


Yea. he was 2nd (just googled it)

he ran better than my short-term memory

Now if you want to run in some 9, 10f races where he's not drawn inside at a short-run to the turn facing bums, then he's less likely to fit in and run his race.
Isn't he a miler?

But today (Whitney day) he did his job. He did fine

[GMB@BP]

I could play devils advocate and say that with Tapwrit throwing his usual uninspiring effort and Backyard Heaven clearly a different horse than his Derby Day win, who exactly did he beat. Good Samaritan is not that much horse and McCracken has always been below grade 1 level.


I dont disagree that there is reason to run again at a distance, there really is much out there, especially on the east coast right now, but I doubt he ever wins at 9+ furlongs at the grade 1 level.

[garyscpa]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Wasn't like it was a horrible adverse Whitney for MYB.

They break near the turn. He was ok entering the backstretch. The race was soft, other than Diversify, although Backyard Heaven had potential going into the race, and some of Mott's runners have moved-up lately, so there were some pre-race hopes for Good Samaritan (i think he may have opened an cringe-worthy 7/2)...

MYB ran fine. Didn't he run 2nd or something? That was perfectly fine with a good opportunity...


Yea. he was 2nd (just googled it)

he ran better than my short-term memory

Now if you want to run in some 9, 10f races where he's not drawn inside at a short-run to the turn facing bums, then he's less likely to fit in and run his race.
Isn't he a miler?

But today (Whitney day) he did his job. He did fine

He nosed out Discreet Lover.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I could play devils advocate and say that with Tapwrit throwing his usual uninspiring effort and Backyard Heaven clearly a different horse than his Derby Day win, who exactly did he beat. Good Samaritan is not that much horse and McCracken has always been below grade 1 level.


I dont disagree that there is reason to run again at a distance, there really is much out there, especially on the east coast right now, but I doubt he ever wins at 9+ furlongs at the grade 1 level.

I agree. It wasn't an especially strong Whitney, but I'm not so sure the division is all that strong with West Coast not running and Accelerate in California.

So who exactly does he have to beat other than Diversify?

I thought Diversify was terrific in the Suburban. He did not thing to make me think he tailed off from that level in the Whitney. However, his overall record is kid of spotty. He has been razor sharp before and then tailed off. Given we have no idea how that sealed Saratoga track was playing after the deluge (but it has been speed favoring at times on days like that), who knows. He might be able to turn the table in a major event with a much bigger purse. If not, they already know they can drop him back to a sprint or mile and compete with almost anyone later.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by garyscpa

He nosed out Discreet Lover.

Exactly.

He capitalized on a good opportunity(weak field, favorable dynamics) in the Whitney, but I would not expect him to be a 9 and 10 furlong horse in true Grade 1 or Grade 2 fields.

[Tom]

I would't use the Whitney as a measuring stick for anyone.
I'm, sure CJ is probably the best one to make sense of the variants that day, using multiple horses to get a decent sample size, but still, just adjusting for the track speed will not tell you how a horse reacted to the surface. If the horse is uncomfortable with the footing, he won't run to his ability no matter how you adjust it.

I never rely on a off track or seal track on its own merit. I insist on at least two rces to verify a big race. Tom Brohamer used to tell us to evaluate s big race by drawing a line through it and then finding another line that is as good. That advice has served me well for decades ( except developing 3 yos signalling a move is coming).

I think the decision to not move the PT up 5 minutes was a mistake. They probably could have beaten the storm. But that is water under the bridge ( a LOT of water! )

But now it is crunch time. Trainers need to be preparing for the BC today. No more time to experiment. If they weren't so chicken-crap about running a horse back in less than two months, it wouldn't matter, but now they are paying the price for coddling their horses and not having any time for recovery.

BTW, does anyone seriously think McCracken was going to win that race under any track conditions?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

BTW, does anyone seriously think McCracken was going to win that race under any track conditions?

I was a McCracken fan early last year. He had such an impressive turn of foot I thought it would eventually win him a Grade 1 if the move was timed better. I used him on top in the Haskell and think I even threw him on some tickets in the Travers too. He never developed at 3 like he should have. So now he's not as good as the Grade 1 older horses. And of course, he's probably worse on a wet track.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Exactly.

He capitalized on a good opportunity(weak field, favorable dynamics) in the Whitney, but I would not expect him to be a 9 and 10 furlong horse in true Grade 1 or Grade 2 fields.

IMO, the dynamics were definitely bad for the inferior speeds trying to keep up with Diversify, but imo that's not automatically the same as saying they were bad for Diversify.

When a track is favoring speed or one of the speeds is dominant, it will sometimes torch the others and go on to victory despite fast fractions.

That's kind of what I am getting at with Diversify and Mind Your Biscuits.

Everyone is going to look at this race and say:

Diversify set a fast pace, killed the other speeds, and won as much the best. Mind Your Biscuits ran OK for 2nd but generally got a good setup. That's a reasonable conclusion and will probably be correct.

My contention is:

It's at least reasonable to wonder if the sealed Saratoga racetrack got speed favoring with all the water on it as has been the case on other days like that. If it did, sure, Diversify won. But perhaps people are overrating his performance and the difference between him and Mind Your Biscuits. He may have actually been a dominant speed on a speed favoring surface and actually got about as good a set of conditions as he's going to get.

On another day, with someone better than Dalmore as the chaser, and an honest track, he could be less of a lock than the 3/5 he's going to be.