Unique Bella

[SuperPickle]

Originally Posted by cj

She ran a 111 overall, 108 final time.

Unique Bella ran 118 overall, 117 final time.

Considering how much more polished Songbird was at this point (she had already won around two turns twice and won a Breeders Cup) and how unpolished this horse is coupled with her ease in winning Sunday (Smith seemed far more concerned with her doing something nutty versus getting challenged by the other three animals. Basically it was her versus her our insanity.)

[VigorsTheGrey]

Maybe one of the main reasons trainers don't want to run their top fillies like Songbird, or now Unique Bella, is that the Derby usually runs a maximum of 20 runners and with that many runners packed together, a lot can happen that might prove disastrous for a very valuable future mare...

The derby at times can be a very congested race to find yourself in the middle of, with no place to go and getting beat up, possibly, by the other horses all around you..

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Maybe one of the main reasons trainers don't want to run their top fillies like Songbird, or now Unique Bella, is that the Derby usually runs a maximum of 20 runners and with that many runners packed together, a lot can happen that might prove disastrous for a very valuable future mare...

The derby at times can be a very congested race to find yourself in the middle of, with no place to go and getting beat up, possibly, by the other horses all around you..

If you are going to take a shot at boys, I think early in the year is the best time to do it. My data suggests that fillies develop sooner than colts and that the gap slowly grows as they mature. So in general I think you want to get them before they starting pulling away.

Under the old system, you could get into the Derby without running against boys or by trying boys in a single major prep to see where your filly fit. It's different now. If I had a great filly and the colts looked a little suspicious, I'd probably try the Preakness if I was feeling especially adventurous. The field is smaller, the distance less demanding, and it's still early in the season.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

If you are going to take a shot at boys, I think early in the year is the best time to do it. My data suggests that fillies develop sooner than colts and that the gap slowly grows as they mature. So in general I think you want to get them before they starting pulling away.

Under the old system, you could get into the Derby without running against boys or by trying boys in a single major prep to see where your filly fit. It's different now. If I had a great filly and the colts looked a little suspicious, I'd probably try the Preakness if I was feeling especially adventurous. The field is smaller, the distance less demanding, and it's still early in the season.

I'd try one of the major Derby preps to she where she stood. But is a win or a second enough points to get her in? If she fails it doesn't take the Oaks off the table. If she wins handily all is wide open. This is the smartest route if you were even considering any of this in the first place IMO.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

If you are going to take a shot at boys, I think early in the year is the best time to do it. My data suggests that fillies develop sooner than colts and that the gap slowly grows as they mature. So in general I think you want to get them before they starting pulling away.

Under the old system, you could get into the Derby without running against boys or by trying boys in a single major prep to see where your filly fit. It's different now. If I had a great filly and the colts looked a little suspicious, I'd probably try the Preakness if I was feeling especially adventurous. The field is smaller, the distance less demanding, and it's still early in the season.

That always seemed to be true, but for whatever reason seems to have vanished the last several years. It wasn't uncommon for fillies to run faster than colts when similar races were carded on the same day, like a Derby and and Oaks prep race. But that hasn't happened in quite a while if memory serves. The colts have been running much faster for a few years now.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

That always seemed to be true, but for whatever reason seems to have vanished the last several years. It wasn't uncommon for fillies to run faster than colts when similar races were carded on the same day, like a Derby and and Oaks prep race. But that hasn't happened in quite a while if memory serves. The colts have been running much faster for a few years now.

The last BC Juvenile and BC Juvenile filly races are good examples of what you are saying.

I suspect it's probably just noise. There has to be a lot of randomness to it unless for some reason one or the other sex is being trained differently now.

Going as far back as when I first began making figures I noticed a lot of the best 2yo fillies were very close or even faster than the best 2yos colts (especially in sprints). But by the time we reached the end the 3yo year or were comparing older horses, the gap was typically more what you would expect unless there was some really freaky filly around or it was a weak male division.

Even right now, a lot of people would probably take Unique Bella over the 3yo colts. Assuming she stays healthy, how many think she's going to be the best 3yo in the country when it comes time for the Breeder's Cup Classic? You never know who, but somebody among the colts will probably jump up and start running some big numbers.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The last BC Juvenile and BC Juvenile filly races are good examples of what you are saying.

I suspect it's probably just noise. There has to be a lot of randomness to it unless for some reason one or the other sex is being trained differently now.

Going as far back as when I first began making figures I noticed a lot of the best 2yo fillies were very close or even faster than the best 2yos colts (especially in sprints). But by the time we reached the end the 3yo year or were comparing older horses, the gap was typically more what you would expect unless there was some really freaky filly around or it was a weak male division.

Even right now, a lot of people would probably take Unique Bella over the 3yo colts. Assuming she stays healthy, how many think she's going to be the best 3yo in the country when it comes time for the Breeder's Cup Classic? You never know who, but somebody among the colts will probably jump up and start running some big numbers.

I agree it is probably just noise. Songbird was the second best horse of her crop behind Arrogate, and Unique Bella is right at or near the top this year. But there has been no depth whatsoever to the division. it isn't just the BC races. The fillies have been coming back WAY slower than males. I find it bizarre based on years past.

[picojim]

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/th...e-shin-injury/


out of the oaks

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by TVGfan

out of the oaks

She was missing from the worktab this past weekend after her March 19 blitz going 6f.

Meanwhile, this development adds much to the dustup regarding Abel Tasman and the change in trainers. Has to burn the former trainer all the more now.

Abel Tasman just worked this morning for Bob Baffert for the second time, going 7f in 1:25+. The distance is a bit curious considering she hasn't been in the barn for very long, and certainly the final time was not quite up to barn standards.

Maybe Pletcher ought to send a filly out for the Santa Anita Oaks along with Battalion Runner.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Shin injury, sore shins, shin bothering her, shin injury detected....what are the specifics here...? Is there a fracture in the shin bone....? What was detected by whom....?

[SuperPickle]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

She was missing from the worktab this past weekend after her March 19 blitz going 6f.

Meanwhile, this development adds much to the dustup regarding Abel Tasman and the change in trainers. Has to burn the former trainer all the more now.

Abel Tasman just worked this morning for Bob Baffert for the second time, going 7f in 1:25+. The distance is a bit curious considering she hasn't been in the barn for very long, and certainly the final time was not quite up to barn standards.

Maybe Pletcher ought to send a filly out for the Santa Anita Oaks along with Battalion Runner.

The interview I saw with Pletcher seemed to allude to the Santa Anita Derby being a necessary evil because of the points versus something TAP wanted to do.

So is Abel Tasman the Oaks favorite?

Btw... what's the line on this filly going to Baffert? Just like China Horse Club Don Alberto also uses Baffert. What it shock anyone if they shut her down and she resurfaces with Baffert in time for Saratoga.

[SoCalCircuit]

Back to back years of people getting suckered in the oaks futures.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I certainly don't like to see any horse get injured but this sure sets up potentially great betting races for the feature events on Oaks-Derby days. Refreshing.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Shin injury, sore shins, shin bothering her, shin injury detected....what are the specifics here...? Is there a fracture in the shin bone....? What was detected by whom....?

Shin soreness is a precursor to bucking shins. The only way to avoid bucking is to stop. Some will pinfire to either try to speed up the healing process or keep the shins from ever becoming an issue again. A blister is another option.

The soreness would be detected by the groom or trainer when feeling the legs. There could be heat and sensitivity.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Shin soreness is a precursor to bucking shins. The only way to avoid bucking is to stop. Some will pinfire to either try to speed up the healing process or keep the shins from ever becoming an issue again. A blister is another option.

The soreness would be detected by the groom or trainer when feeling the legs. There could be heat and sensitivity.

An interesting and perhaps telling fact is that Unique Bella went on the shelf for 5 months immediately following her debut.