"Fed Up With the CAWs..."

[Poindexter]

Wasn't this same Pat Cummings the one who was bragging a while back that he saved horse players from the practice of someone betting no hopers in the exacta pool to pad their prices offshore. Don't see why crushing an exacta from the 9th choice to the 8th choice isn't worth looking into. Was it one team? Many teams? How did they come up with it? Was it indeed just crushing the horse that ran 2nd or was there more to it? Did something unscrupulous happen in the race. Where there is smoke, typically there is fire. If I bet my money at Saratoga I would expect a full investigation. If racing is going to live or die by the caw, at least police what they are doing. Yes there is no law against betting the right combination, but maybe some laws/rules were broken when they came up with that combination. Maybe you have some bad actors in the backstretch, that shouldn't be there? Maybe some of the caw are the bad actors. All of a sudden scandal is not possible in horse racing? Because anybody betting large sums of money in horse racing has integrity beyond reproach?

[Robert Fischer]

*Thank you Jeff for the well thought-out post. I'm quoting the following, but the whole post is worth a read by all.

Originally Posted by Jeff P

...

...

Takeout Relative to Field Size
According to the Paulick Report article above: "Takeout on win betting in Hong Kong is 17.5%" --

Given avg field size of 12 win pool takeout in Hong Kong works out to about 1.46% per runner.

Applying the same takeout rate to avg field size of 7.59 win pool takeout here in the US works out to 2.31% per runner.

Put another way: win pool takeout per runner here in the US is about 1.58 TIMES higher than win pool takeout per runner in Hong Kong.

-jp
.

I think that's BIG.
Takeout/FieldSize is downplayed here. Owners and trainer (both as a product of their concentration of power, and as a result of their concentration of power in the fact that some divisions really have 3 uncoupled entries and 2 rivals ((5 horses)) ready for a stakes), and the track Mgmt desire to pump out racedays while giving horses 40 days rest, -all part of the short fields we often get.
Sometimes '6' horses is presented to us as if it were a normal thing.
Another thing to be selective with and if no value, be patient with passing and working forward.

[o_crunk]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Wasn't this same Pat Cummings the one who was bragging a while back that he saved horse players from the practice of someone betting no hopers in the exacta pool to pad their prices offshore. Don't see why crushing an exacta from the 9th choice to the 8th choice isn't worth looking into. Was it one team? Many teams? How did they come up with it? Was it indeed just crushing the horse that ran 2nd or was there more to it? Did something unscrupulous happen in the race. Where there is smoke, typically there is fire. If I bet my money at Saratoga I would expect a full investigation. If racing is going to live or die by the caw, at least police what they are doing. Yes there is no law against betting the right combination, but maybe some laws/rules were broken when they came up with that combination. Maybe you have some bad actors in the backstretch, that shouldn't be there? Maybe some of the caw are the bad actors. All of a sudden scandal is not possible in horse racing? Because anybody betting large sums of money in horse racing has integrity beyond reproach?

What people typically fail to realize with CRW is this - they are trying to get back $1.00 for every $1.00 wagered. That's it as the rebate on the volume takes care of the rest. In aggregate they actually fail to do this the vast majority of the time. They probably make 90 to 95 cents on the dollar - a huge feat in its own right - overall.

So why would they pound the 2 in this scenario? They would pound the 2 if they were under exposed in other pools. Supposedly they aren't allowed to wager on WIN within 2 minutes. I'm going to assume they are still active before that window - they have to be just to keep up the volume they need to qualify for the rebate. And the overall data suggests to me they are still in that pool. Market making under these conditions where you can't bet last is complicated. Perhaps they had underbet 2 relative to how the other pools had developed *after* they were locked out of win and *before* they pounded the 2 in the other vertical exotics.

Conversely, you get scenarios like race 10 on the same card where they are over exposed in the win pool on the winner. In this scenario they have too much on the 9 relative to the public and how the pools have developed *after* they are locked out. So they will be looking at other combos without the 9 in verticals to cover the race.

That average Joe is just not equipped to deal with this of course - the idea that all the pools are really one pool and exploiting small differences in price between them. This is why I think cutting them off at 2MTP has had some unintended consequences and it's not just as simple as "betting to win will always be the best bet so bet that". They can still bet last in other pools and they will be overcompensating for the loss of not betting last in one of the highest volume pools. Making matters more complicated is that everyone else they are betting against - us - is also now conditioned to be betting as late as possible.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by o_crunk

What people typically fail to realize with CRW is this - they are trying to get back $1.00 for every $1.00 wagered. That's it as the rebate on the volume takes care of the rest. In aggregate they actually fail to do this the vast majority of the time. They probably make 90 to 95 cents on the dollar - a huge feat in its own right - overall.

So why would they pound the 2 in this scenario? They would pound the 2 if they were under exposed in other pools. Supposedly they aren't allowed to wager on WIN within 2 minutes. I'm going to assume they are still active before that window - they have to be just to keep up the volume they need to qualify for the rebate. And the overall data suggests to me they are still in that pool. Market making under these conditions where you can't bet last is complicated. Perhaps they had underbet 2 relative to how the other pools had developed *after* they were locked out of win and *before* they pounded the 2 in the other vertical exotics.

Conversely, you get scenarios like race 10 on the same card where they are over exposed in the win pool on the winner. In this scenario they have too much on the 9 relative to the public and how the pools have developed *after* they are locked out. So they will be looking at other combos without the 9 in verticals to cover the race.

That average Joe is just not equipped to deal with this of course - the idea that all the pools are really one pool and exploiting small differences in price between them. This is why I think cutting them off at 2MTP has had some unintended consequences and it's not just as simple as "betting to win will always be the best bet so bet that". They can still bet last in other pools and they will be overcompensating for the loss of not betting last in one of the highest volume pools. Making matters more complicated is that everyone else they are betting against - us - is also now conditioned to be betting as late as possible.

I understand what the caw does. I don't see why exactly they should be hammering any one combination knocking it from an undervalued price to an extremely undervalued price. When it happens to be the longest shot on the board to the 2nd longest shot on the board, that makes even less sense (they don't play every combination). When the winning combination paid 32% of what it should have, that tells me that this in that $350,000 exacta pool, that of the 280k that was paid out let's say roughly $180 K was paid out to this team(s). That is a lot of money to extract from one combination from caw team(s) that are supposedly playing 100's of combinations with the intent to lose less than their rebates. They also hit the tri good as well (150 k pool). Also keep in mind they extracted that money by betting 3 times more than they should have had to because they pounded the combination so hard (that also doesn't fit in with the Caw game plan).

I stand by my original post on this event. This is a situation that needs to be investigated and explained. If racing is just going to sit there and say that "when we protect the win pool stuff like this happens" that exodus of players leaving the sport will just keep multiplying (and deservedly so).

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Wasn't this same Pat Cummings the one who was bragging a while back that he saved horse players from the practice of someone betting no hopers in the exacta pool to pad their prices offshore. Don't see why crushing an exacta from the 9th choice to the 8th choice isn't worth looking into. Was it one team? Many teams? How did they come up with it? Was it indeed just crushing the horse that ran 2nd or was there more to it? Did something unscrupulous happen in the race. Where there is smoke, typically there is fire. If I bet my money at Saratoga I would expect a full investigation. If racing is going to live or die by the caw, at least police what they are doing. Yes there is no law against betting the right combination, but maybe some laws/rules were broken when they came up with that combination. Maybe you have some bad actors in the backstretch, that shouldn't be there? Maybe some of the caw are the bad actors. All of a sudden scandal is not possible in horse racing? Because anybody betting large sums of money in horse racing has integrity beyond reproach?

These syndicates who run the CAW wagering are powerful.

There is a market demand for Information to sell to them.

Perhaps they do not 'create' information, and perhaps they kindly decline information presented to them.

They already have a small edge while leaving things as they are.
In the short term they may choose to leave things to chance, as they know the long term they will profit.

Information could potentially be a moderate but significant increase in confidence/bet-size/kelly/returns/churn in certain races and sequences.

Coincidences happen. Thus far the Syndicates have been a class act. I can't picture them influencing races or accepting information.
High Front was a play-against by some handicappers, including Andy Serling on Talking Horses. It's possible they deemed it a spot to play against a favorite.
Coppola was projected on a loose but fast-paced lead by some handicappers.
Arzak had some darkened 'Read between the lines' form. Question whether he can sustain a move, but some room for opinions to be formed.

* Last out = taken up last out of running style winners went 1-2 in a merry go round pace.
* Prior = battled tough races, You had the LRL race were broke wide and rated but you had a Godolphin horse with exceptional fitness entered as they occasional do as a tune-up ((usually at overlooked odds, or bettable 2/1 area favs)), was deemed worthy of Favortism in a G2 at Woodbine... So you got Coppola on a possible loose fast pace, you gotta use Arzak also.

[thaskalos]

This is Saratoga, where the tote board doesn't tilt because some guy bet some lucky number. IMO...this sort of exacta combination isn't the type that some sophisticated handicapping algorithm would have isolated on. What if there is something of a more nefarious nature going on...and the CAW action is unintentionally providing convenient cover for it?

[o_crunk]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

I understand what the caw does. I don't see why exactly they should be hammering any one combination knocking it from an undervalued price to an extremely undervalued price. When it happens to be the longest shot on the board to the 2nd longest shot on the board, that makes even less sense (they don't play every combination). When the winning combination paid 32% of what it should have, that tells me that this in that $350,000 exacta pool, that of the 280k that was paid out let's say roughly $180 K was paid out to this team(s). That is a lot of money to extract from one combination from caw team(s) that are supposedly playing 100's of combinations with the intent to lose less than their rebates. They also hit the tri good as well (150 k pool). Also keep in mind they extracted that money by betting 3 times more than they should have had to because they pounded the combination so hard (that also doesn't fit in with the Caw game plan).

I stand by my original post on this event. This is a situation that needs to be investigated and explained. If racing is just going to sit there and say that "when we protect the win pool stuff like this happens" that exodus of players leaving the sport will just keep multiplying (and deservedly so).

This exacta payoff isn't even in the top 10 of the lightest at NYRA in the last 5 years. Just food for thought. If you think there is nefarious stuff going on, don't play. Unfortunately a lot of press and people on twitter of late have equated CRW with cheating. I don't think it is cheating. Yes, the field is tilted but it's not cheating to me. But then again, I'm not willing to put hundreds of millions in play betting racing every year. They are. When you bang the drum on CRW this and CRW that eventually people just feel cheated. It's just a different game than it was 20 or 30 years ago. Some have kept up, some have cried in their soup and others have silently left. It is what it is. If you teleported from 2003 until today and started day trading the stock market, your mind would be blown how much things had changed. Racing is no different.

Further the idea that *all* the late money in this example is Elite or RGS is nonsense. A lot of the stuff Pat shares is over done and tilted toward a specific narrative - one that makes people believe CRW is the worst thing ever and many have construed that as "they are cheating". The nature of tote reconciliation is that some remote sites money doesn't hit the pool until it is closed. For example if you are sitting at home and bet this 4-2 exacta as the horses are about to be loaded on your tv (which itself is about 20 seconds behind reality), depending on where and who you bet with, that money is definitely not hitting the pool until the race is off. Further, the idea that CRW extracted by your estimation over 50% of the pool is ridiculous. I've worked with this reconciliation data and I've never seen CRW absolutely clobber a pool like that. It doesn't work that way.

While my trust in NYRA to know when something nefarious has happened is low, the idea that a CRW team would be responsible for it is logically very low. But sure, they should investigate. And while we're at show their entire outlay on the race and what they bagged after it. You'll probably find one guy who played 3 $1K straight exactas. 2 of which lost, one won. Sh*t happens.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by o_crunk

This exacta payoff isn't even in the top 10 of the lightest at NYRA in the last 5 years. Just food for thought. If you think there is nefarious stuff going on, don't play. Unfortunately a lot of press and people on twitter of late have equated CRW with cheating. I don't think it is cheating. Yes, the field is tilted but it's not cheating to me. But then again, I'm not willing to put hundreds of millions in play betting racing every year. They are. When you bang the drum on CRW this and CRW that eventually people just feel cheated. It's just a different game than it was 20 or 30 years ago. Some have kept up, some have cried in their soup and others have silently left. It is what it is. If you teleported from 2003 until today and started day trading the stock market, your mind would be blown how much things had changed. Racing is no different.

Further the idea that *all* the late money in this example is Elite or RGS is nonsense. A lot of the stuff Pat shares is over done and tilted toward a specific narrative - one that makes people believe CRW is the worst thing ever and many have construed that as "they are cheating". The nature of tote reconciliation is that some remote sites money doesn't hit the pool until it is closed. For example if you are sitting at home and bet this 4-2 exacta as the horses are about to be loaded on your tv (which itself is about 20 seconds behind reality), depending on where and who you bet with, that money is definitely not hitting the pool until the race is off. Further, the idea that CRW extracted by your estimation over 50% of the pool is ridiculous. I've worked with this reconciliation data and I've never seen CRW absolutely clobber a pool like that. It doesn't work that way.

While my trust in NYRA to know when something nefarious has happened is low, the idea that a CRW team would be responsible for it is logically very low. But sure, they should investigate. And while we're at show their entire outlay on the race and what they bagged after it. You'll probably find one guy who played 3 $1K straight exactas. 2 of which lost, one won. Sh*t happens.

You targeted Poindexter's post, but he didn't use the word "nefarious"...I did. So, I must assume that you read my post before submitting your own. And I'd like to say that I never suggested that the CRW groups are doing something "nefarious"...I submitted that something "nefarious" might also be going on at the same time, for which the CRW late action is providing unintentional cover.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by o_crunk

But sure, they should investigate. And while we're at show their entire outlay on the race and what they bagged after it. You'll probably find one guy who played 3 $1K straight exactas. 2 of which lost, one won. Sh*t happens.

Great! And by continually using this mentality...we can quickly explain and forgive most of the other injustices which take place in our game.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by o_crunk

While my trust in NYRA to know when something nefarious has happened is low, the idea that a CRW team would be responsible for it is logically very low..

Hypothetically, there is no factor or reason that makes syndicates somehow less likely to cheat.

However, the actual syndicates we have using CAW in our pools are good guys. The volume and churn supports our game. When they happen to be wrong and the field size is big enough, there are some good returns to be had.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Hypothetically, there is no factor or reason that makes syndicates somehow less likely to cheat.

However, the actual syndicates we have using CAW in our pools are good guys.

And you know this because...

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by o_crunk

This exacta payoff isn't even in the top 10 of the lightest at NYRA in the last 5 years. Just food for thought. If you think there is nefarious stuff going on, don't play. Unfortunately a lot of press and people on twitter of late have equated CRW with cheating. I don't think it is cheating. Yes, the field is tilted but it's not cheating to me. But then again, I'm not willing to put hundreds of millions in play betting racing every year. They are. When you bang the drum on CRW this and CRW that eventually people just feel cheated. It's just a different game than it was 20 or 30 years ago. Some have kept up, some have cried in their soup and others have silently left. It is what it is. If you teleported from 2003 until today and started day trading the stock market, your mind would be blown how much things had changed. Racing is no different.

Further the idea that *all* the late money in this example is Elite or RGS is nonsense. A lot of the stuff Pat shares is over done and tilted toward a specific narrative - one that makes people believe CRW is the worst thing ever and many have construed that as "they are cheating". The nature of tote reconciliation is that some remote sites money doesn't hit the pool until it is closed. For example if you are sitting at home and bet this 4-2 exacta as the horses are about to be loaded on your tv (which itself is about 20 seconds behind reality), depending on where and who you bet with, that money is definitely not hitting the pool until the race is off. Further, the idea that CRW extracted by your estimation over 50% of the pool is ridiculous. I've worked with this reconciliation data and I've never seen CRW absolutely clobber a pool like that. It doesn't work that way.

While my trust in NYRA to know when something nefarious has happened is low, the idea that a CRW team would be responsible for it is logically very low. But sure, they should investigate. And while we're at show their entire outlay on the race and what they bagged after it. You'll probably find one guy who played 3 $1K straight exactas. 2 of which lost, one won. Sh*t happens.

The fact that this isn't top 10 in lightest payouts (I will take your word for it), just tells us that the racing industry is failing to protect the public. I explained my logic on why I don't think this betting action is consistent with Caw betting and why I think this needs to be investigated. You actually agree because you made following comment "I've worked with this reconciliation data and I've never seen CRW absolutely clobber a pool like that. It doesn't work that way."

So it may not work that way but for whatever reason the exacta from the longest shot to the 2nd longest shot came back 32% to 36% of what it should have. So somebody(s) bet it strong enough to make the payoff that low. Supposedly Pat Cummings has identified at least some of it as Caw. I just say that this race needs to be investigated and reported on. Accepting longshot exactas at Saratoga paying 33% to 35% of what they should pay cannot be tolerated despite your insistence that shit happens. These events kill the sport. This type of activity I am pretty certain led to Sumja leaving the market which started this thread in the first place.

When exactly can we expect the racing industry to protect he public? Or is that not an important priority?

fwiw, I don't bet nyra (maybe a rare pick six carryover) so I don't even have horse in this race. But the attitude that shit happens and either suck it up or leave the game is on top of rebates a huge reason why this industry is going nowhere fast.

[Maximillion]

If they are playing the game at a 4 or 5 % loss at pretty much all or most of the tracks and races....and it looks they are-I think it's possible they were going to land here in some form even without rebates.It's just reality imo.

[Robert Fischer]

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[Robert Fischer]

6/1 over 6/1 paid $45 in a 12 horse field.

these guys both paid $7 to place... but it's not the worst payout ever but kinda low.

The race itself is comical.

at the break trevor m? comes over and bump/herds out Irad . So Irad basically never does anything else in the race.

Meanwhile they are sorting out the pace ? on the lead and goes forward and is really rank as he's strangled back. The is right there and also being held.
The dylan davis goes to the lead while cruising comfortably and they all follow him like a procession! (head-on shown on video)

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