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12-10-2011, 09:43 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Paragould, Arkansas
Posts: 198
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The 7 had $603 bet on him to win out of a pool of $1124 at the first scrape of the tote with 20 mtp.
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12-10-2011, 10:05 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,769
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nice to see you again arkansasman. happy holiday's
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12-10-2011, 10:49 PM
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#18
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Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 832
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I see this happen often throughout the year where a 12-1 to 20-1 opens at a very shot price and I would say the majority of the time they lose.But they do scare the crap out of me if i'm alive in the last leg of a pick 4 or 5.
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12-10-2011, 11:02 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Anaheim,California
Posts: 4,675
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arkansasman
The 7 had $603 bet on him to win out of a pool of $1124 at the first scrape of the tote with 20 mtp.
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We might assume that $103 of that amount came from the public, thus perhaps indicating a $500 bet from insiders. Five hundred bet very early on a longshot is significant. This thread reinforces why I have long been very fond of early money and watch for it.
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12-10-2011, 11:03 PM
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#20
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: At the wire
Posts: 2,795
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The 7 horse was
4-1 at seventeen minutes to post
9-1 at 1 minute to post
19-1 at 0 minutes to post
21-1 at final
Nobody knew anything based on the wagering, someone either in the barn or a owner threw a few bucks on him early is all - happens all the time!
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12-10-2011, 11:42 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,492
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if someone knew somthing why didnt the poster have any cabbage on the horse thats what i want to know
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12-11-2011, 12:23 AM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,987
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Casino
Im live at Tampa Bay downs.
In the 6th race Luke of York was heavy ml favorite went of as 3/5,but the winner of the race Angelofdistinction went of at 21/1.
The first 3 flashes of the board AOD was 1/5,hmmm someone knew something.Drifted up to 21/1.Luke of York off the board.
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Do you think being gelded since his last start had anything to do with this? I do.
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12-11-2011, 07:28 AM
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#23
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,639
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by keilan
The 7 horse was
4-1 at seventeen minutes to post
9-1 at 1 minute to post
19-1 at 0 minutes to post
21-1 at final
Nobody knew anything based on the wagering, someone either in the barn or a owner threw a few bucks on him early is all - happens all the time!
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4-1 17 minutes to post its 25 minutes between races.If the horse is 12/1 ml LOY was to be the favorite in the Bid stakes,and he opens 1/5 and with 17 mintues to post he was 4/1,the fact that he was gelded,yep someone knew something.
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12-11-2011, 07:48 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 647
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Striker
Do you think being gelded since his last start had anything to do with this? I do.
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Was he an announced first time gelding? Does TB routinely put gelding announcements in their changes, announcements or in their bottom line changes? Most tracks unfortunately do not report this information. NYRA does and GP also does but only if you catch the announced changes but not in their program changes or bottom line. Just curious.
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12-11-2011, 08:37 AM
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#25
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Casino
4-1 17 minutes to post its 25 minutes between races.If the horse is 12/1 ml LOY was to be the favorite in the Bid stakes,and he opens 1/5 and with 17 mintues to post he was 4/1,the fact that he was gelded,yep someone knew something.
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So with all these clues, how much money did you bet on him?
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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12-11-2011, 09:09 AM
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#26
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,639
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Not a dime.And im ok with it.
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12-11-2011, 09:30 AM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Anaheim,California
Posts: 4,675
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Horse players being horse players, we may do a little redboarding in these situations. We like something in the race and bet it, while at the same time noting the unusual play on another runner. After our figure horse loses and the action horse wins, we might say,"Damn, that horse had a ton of early money, I should have bet it." The problem is, if we do jump off of our original selection and go to the action horse, often the board horse is up the track and our figure horse wins, and we then say, "Damn, why did I get off of my original selection, I really liked him." This is the problem with tote watching vs handicapping, who to bet when there is a conflict in the same race? For myself, if I have a solid spot play will play it and ignore the action runner, although the board horse will make for some uneasy thoughts. Learned long ago that you must not get caught in the switches. A small exacta box might make sense for some players, although the hit rate is going to be pretty low. Since most races are not played, for myself will sometimes pick up a play when a runner comes up very live on the board in a race that was going to be passed.
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12-11-2011, 01:35 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,987
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Johnny V
Was he an announced first time gelding? Does TB routinely put gelding announcements in their changes, announcements or in their bottom line changes? Most tracks unfortunately do not report this information. NYRA does and GP also does but only if you catch the announced changes but not in their program changes or bottom line. Just curious.
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I don't know if it was announced or not. But if it wasn' t the connections would still be in the know about whether or not this was a positive change or not. Thus, this could explain Casino's theory on someone knew something.
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12-12-2011, 10:53 PM
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#29
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Irrationally exuberant
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 740
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early money
If the early money was so accurate the hotwalkers would be driving mercedes
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12-14-2011, 10:27 AM
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#30
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dGnr8
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Niagara, Ontario
Posts: 3,023
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These are the intervals from HPIBet. I don't know whether pools are commingled or anything else but it seems to back up Casinos post.
Code:
Historical win odds and win pool sizes at various time intervals
MTP
Pgm # M/L 20 17 15 12 10 7 5 4 3 2 1 0 Final
1 15 14 20 13 13 12 13 13 13 15 14 30 30
2 4 5/2 9/2 9/2 9/2 9/2 5 5 9/2 5 5 9/2 9/2
3 5 17 25 21 21 18 12 8 9 9 9 11 10
4 9/2 15 20 16 15 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 5
5 3 14 22 19 16 13 9 8 7 7 7 6 6
6 2 4/5 1/5 2/5 1/2 3/5 3/5 3/5 4/5 4/5 4/5 3/5 3/5
7 12 4 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 19 21
Win Pool: $4,394 $6,529 $6,878 $7,111 $8,272 $9,923 $10,648 $11,426 $13,569 $15,122 $84,350 $100,941
__________________
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The great menace to progress is not ignorance but the illusion of knowledge - Daniel J. Boorstin
The takers get the honey, the givers sing the blues - Robin Trower, Too Rolling Stoned - 1974
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