Explain the A-B-C-X method for horizontal wagers?

[ultracapper]

I'm the old cliche, it's hard enough hitting one, never mind six, but I would think first and foremost is just hit the damn thing, and let the chips fall where they may. You probably really shouldn't be getting too serious about it unless it's a day or two carryover anyhow. Then just the shear size of the pool should make it worth your while if you're able to pull it down.

[Buckeye]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

I'm the old cliche, it's hard enough hitting one, never mind six, but I would think first and foremost is just hit the damn thing, and let the chips fall where they may. You probably really shouldn't be getting too serious about it unless it's a day or two carryover anyhow. Then just the shear size of the pool should make it worth your while if you're able to pull it down.

That's right ultracapper, that's the beauty of the thing.

Once you get to four winners (the PK4) the room for error allows for serious play with or without carryovers or pool size.

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by Buckeye

Doesn't look like it's free to me so I'm not interested.

Why should I pay for anything I already know? is another question.

Could be my old XP just won't run this but I don't care.

When it comes to the PK3 and above, or even the PICK one, you must be right and creative in order to make money.

No pay required, just an email.

Maybe it's just me, but I listen to others since I don't know it all. Doesn't mean I agree with everything said but it never hurts to hear others opinions. Same for the NYRA race previews. I listen to TLG and Maggie to hear what they say, doesn't mean I'm betting on their advise and a vast majority of the time I don't. It costs nothng to listen, and sometimes they offer great information.

[Buckeye]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

No pay required, just an email.

Maybe it's just me, but I listen to others since I don't know it all. Doesn't mean I agree with everything said but it never hurts to hear others opinions. Same for the NYRA race previews. I listen to TLG and Maggie to hear what they say, doesn't mean I'm betting on their advise and a vast majority of the time I don't. It costs nothng to listen, and sometimes they offer great information.

That's all true ElKabong, and my brother swears by this kind of thing. Problem for me is I tend NOT to listen to other opinions for two reasons.
First, they could and do often hurt and second my opinions are my own.
Information is a different story and I do listen for that.

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by Buckeye

That's all true ElKabong, and my brother swears by this kind of thing. Problem for me is I tend NOT to listen to other opinions for two reasons.
First, they could and do often hurt and second my opinions are my own.
Information is a different story and I do listen for that.

Believe me, I understand where you're coming from. When I bet Texas and Louisiana tracks solely, (years ago) I never listened to anyone elses opinion. No need to. I knew more than any talking head did in regards to this area prior to 2007 or so. Much more. Problem is, the value of betting those tracks seriously became no longer worth it.

NYRA I'm playing a bit of catch up (where listening to TLG is helpful) and I'm much more of a physicality handicapper than anything else. Maggie can point out some things sometimes that I won't be able to spot on a monitor. It's helpful information

Like I said, in no way do I base any wager on anyone else's opinion. Just getting some info not available to me that *could* help , I'm going to listen. Might save me from a bad bet.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

There is absolutely no way that you can pre-determine negative and positive ROI combinations that you are betting in a P-6.

I disagree strongly.

There may be exotic combinations that pay shockingly high or low prices, but overall there is obviously a very strong correlation between the odds and payoffs.

If I look at any sequence of races and there are 2 in the sequence where I have a strong negative feeling about the likely favorite (because of a prior trip, a negative trainer pattern, today's setup, a layoff or whatever else) those races become my As. If I am right about those 2 races, it's extremely likely that over time I am going to get greater value in that sequence than I would in the win pool as long I don't include those bad favorites.

I need at least 2 value oriented opinions in order to gain decent leverage in the exotics. Otherwise, I am probably just wasting my time and may be better off betting to win against a lower take.

There is little to no advantage just adding legs where you have no intrinsic advantage over the crowd.

About the only time I would ever consider playing a Pick 6 is if I had a strong value oriented opinion in races 1 and 6. Then the only way I could combine those opinions into a single bet and gain leverage would be in the Pick 6. Then I would play both those races in a value oriented way and play races 2-5 in a more typical fashion of including all the contenders.

To me "As" are the races and horses where I think I have an advantage and B's are contenders in other races that will probably be bet appropriately (like most horses). All the overbet dregs and bad favorites are out.

If those standards aren't met, I should not be in that pool.

If you want to argue your bankroll in unlikely to be able support that strategy playing Pick 6s, I have not disagreed with that. That's one reason I rarely play Pick 6s.

However, most people that throw all those shit horses in or that leave off valuable "C" combinations for bankroll reasons should not be in that pool either unless they have such a huge edge they can get away with being mathematically foolish.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I disagree strongly.

There may be exotic combinations that pay shockingly high or low prices, but overall there is obviously a very strong correlation between the odds and payoffs.

If I look at any sequence of races and there are 2 in the sequence where I have a strong negative feeling about the likely favorite (because of a prior trip, a negative trainer pattern, today's setup, a layoff or whatever else) those races become my As. If I am right about those 2 races, it's extremely likely that over time I am going to get greater value in that sequence than I would in the win pool as long I don't include those bad favorites.

I need at least 2 value oriented opinions in order to gain decent leverage in the exotics. Otherwise, I am probably just wasting my time and may be better off betting to win against a lower take.

There is little to no advantage just adding legs where you have no intrinsic advantage over the crowd.

About the only time I would ever consider playing a Pick 6 is if I had a strong value oriented opinion in races 1 and 6. Then the only way I could combine those opinions into a single bet and gain leverage would be in the Pick 6. Then I would play both those races in a value oriented way and play races 2-5 in a more typical fashion of including all the contenders.

To me "As" are the races and horses where I think I have an advantage and B's are contenders in other races that will probably be bet appropriately (like most horses). All the overbet dregs and bad favorites are out.

If those standards aren't met, I should not be in that pool.

If you want to argue your bankroll in unlikely to be able support that strategy playing Pick 6s, I have not disagreed with that. That's one reason I rarely play Pick 6s.

However, most people that throw all those shit horses in or that leave off valuable "C" combinations for bankroll reasons should not be in that pool either unless they have such a huge edge they can get away with being mathematically foolish.

You wrote 10 paragraphs but I have no idea your point. You're strongly disagreeing because you think you CAN predict the ROI of a Pick 6 in advance? C'mon. Unless you're saying "I won't bet 3-5 shots 6 races straight so I throw out that ticket", it's all ineffective overanalysis of things you can't know in advance.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I disagree strongly.

There may be exotic combinations that pay shockingly high or low prices, but overall there is obviously a very strong correlation between the odds and payoffs.

If I look at any sequence of races and there are 2 in the sequence where I have a strong negative feeling about the likely favorite (because of a prior trip, a negative trainer pattern, today's setup, a layoff or whatever else) those races become my As. If I am right about those 2 races, it's extremely likely that over time I am going to get greater value in that sequence than I would in the win pool as long I don't include those bad favorites.

I need at least 2 value oriented opinions in order to gain decent leverage in the exotics. Otherwise, I am probably just wasting my time and may be better off betting to win against a lower take.

There is little to no advantage just adding legs where you have no intrinsic advantage over the crowd.

About the only time I would ever consider playing a Pick 6 is if I had a strong value oriented opinion in races 1 and 6. Then the only way I could combine those opinions into a single bet and gain leverage would be in the Pick 6. Then I would play both those races in a value oriented way and play races 2-5 in a more typical fashion of including all the contenders.

To me "As" are the races and horses where I think I have an advantage and B's are contenders in other races that will probably be bet appropriately (like most horses). All the overbet dregs and bad favorites are out.

If those standards aren't met, I should not be in that pool.

If you want to argue your bankroll in unlikely to be able support that strategy playing Pick 6s, I have not disagreed with that. That's one reason I rarely play Pick 6s.

However, most people that throw all those shit horses in or that leave off valuable "C" combinations for bankroll reasons should not be in that pool either unless they have such a huge edge they can get away with being mathematically foolish.

If you actually could identify the overlays and underlays beforehand you would be holding the key to the vault. Because doing it for a P-6 is probably the ultimate skill you could have. A win bet takes the least analysis and then the DD, P-3, etc. follow in order. A betting life where you are always on the right side of a wager is the holy grail for any player.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by castaway01

You wrote 10 paragraphs but I have no idea your point. You're strongly disagreeing because you think you CAN predict the ROI of a Pick 6 in advance? C'mon. Unless you're saying "I won't bet 3-5 shots 6 races straight so I throw out that ticket", it's all ineffective overanalysis of things you can't know in advance.

I'll make it simpler for you.

It you have any hope of EVER beating this game you need to be able to identify horses/races that provide you with potential overlays. If you can't do that, there's no need to discuss Pick 6s. A person like that should take up another gambling game. We can't even talk win bets.

If you can do that, the betting pools are correlated closely enough, that if you find potential overlays in multiple races in a sequence, over the long haul those horses will offer even better value combined than they do alone.

I have a long term record of being able to do that with a small edge (though this year could have been better lol)

I'm not sitting here calculating ROIs on Pick 3s or 4s.

I'm saying if I dislike the favorite in the 1st and 4th leg, I'm tossing both those horses and using the horses I like in those legs along with the contenders in the other legs. If I am right about the bad favorites, tickets like that will be overlaid long term.

IMO, at it's most fundamental level, exotic wagering is about hooking up value to value because it creates even greater value than either horse alone.

If you are overly worried about trying to cash bets and bankroll and use bad favorites like that on your tickets, you better either have an enormous edge otherwise or you can't be in that pool and win.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'll make it simpler for you.

It you have any hope of EVER beating this game you need to be able to identify horses/races that provide you with potential overlays. If you can't do that, there's no need to discuss Pick 6s. A person like that should take up another gambling game. We can't even talk win bets.

If you can do that, the betting pools are correlated closely enough, that if you find potential overlays in multiple races in a sequence, over the long haul those horses will offer even better value combined than they do alone.

I have a long term record of being able to do that with a small edge (though this year could have been better lol)

I'm not sitting here calculating ROIs on Pick 3s or 4s.

I'm saying if I dislike the favorite in the 1st and 4th leg, I'm tossing both those horses and using the horses I like in those legs along with the contenders in the other legs. If I am right about the bad favorites, tickets like that will be overlaid long term.

IMO, at it's most fundamental level, exotic wagering is about hooking up value to value because it creates even greater value than either horse alone.

If you are overly worried about trying to cash bets and bankroll and use bad favorites like that on your tickets, you better either have an enormous edge otherwise or you can't be in that pool and win.

You aren't a Pick-6 player, now or ever, and need to stop telling people how they should play it. Period.

[thaskalos]

When we publicly exclaim -- especially online -- that we have a "long-term record of beating a particular gambling game"...do we honestly expect to be believed by those to whom we are directing our comments? Do boastful claims really do anything to support the gambling ideologies that we sometimes express here?

[Tom]

How can you have any idea about a race three hours from now when in the current race, 5 minutes to post, you STILL have idea who will get hammered in the last seconds?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

boastful claims

I don't care what you say, I 'took down' the Preakness pick-6... paid $41.04 for 20 cents

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by the little guy

You aren't a Pick-6 player, now or ever, and need to stop telling people how they should play it. Period.

Your constant reliance on "survival" "surviving" in multi-leg wagers is completely wrong.

One of these days you are going to have to come to the realization that there are people out there who are much smarter than you and much better than you at wagering and winning. People have studied wagering strategies for decades and have honed their skills making a living depending on betting as their sole source of income. It's win or die.....not win or lose, get a paycheck and proclaim how you know everything.

It's scary the gap between how smart you think you are and how little you actually know about wagering strategy.

Handicapping you might be the smartest human on the planet....that's subjective.....but wagering correctly is not....that's objective.

Your talk/fright of bankroll and swings tells me all I need to know....The people who are good at this win constantly....there are no worries about bankrolls or swings....when you make good bets over and over and over, it's just how much you are going to win......when you makes bets strictly as a function of handicapping or survival, then yes, you have to worry about bankroll and swings cause you are doing it wrong and probably going to lose over the long run.

And of course the hurdle of thinking you are smarter than everybody else is the absolute worst hurdle of all.....it's almost impossible to overcome in a gambling game.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

Your constant reliance on "survival" "surviving" in multi-leg wagers is completely wrong.

One of these days you are going to have to come to the realization that there are people out there who are much smarter than you and much better than you at wagering and winning. People have studied wagering strategies for decades and have honed their skills making a living depending on betting as their sole source of income. It's win or die.....not win or lose, get a paycheck and proclaim how you know everything.

It's scary the gap between how smart you think you are and how little you actually know about wagering strategy.

Handicapping you might be the smartest human on the planet....that's subjective.....but wagering correctly is not....that's objective.

Your talk/fright of bankroll and swings tells me all I need to know....The people who are good at this win constantly....there are no worries about bankrolls or swings....when you make good bets over and over and over, it's just how much you are going to win......when you makes bets strictly as a function of handicapping or survival, then yes, you have to worry about bankroll and swings cause you are doing it wrong and probably going to lose over the long run.

And of course the hurdle of thinking you are smarter than everybody else is the absolute worst hurdle of all.....it's almost impossible to overcome in a gambling game.

First post in eight years. I feel so special.

Pick-6s are hit by surviving legs to get to good opinions. Sorry if you disagree but that doesn't make that theory wrong....and it's hardly an original theory.


One of these days? I have spent my life knowing there are many smarter at wagering. You're not one of them, but there are many.


Not sure where I said I was brilliant at wagering but glad to see you have taken some of your valuable time to come here and insult me. I feel honored, as you are ( after all ) an internet hero.


When have I discussed bankroll swings? Never that I can remember, but since I'm not as smart as you, I must have forgotten.


Jealousy is a terrible thing. Thanks for stopping by, though, as I'm sure some were impressed....other than yourself even.