Quote:
Originally Posted by CBYRacer
Three related questions:
1) How significant of a factor is trainer intent in the outcome of a race?
2) What are the broad categories of trainer intent? For example, is one category 'racing the horse into shape'? Is another category 'darkening a horse's form to wait for a big payout'? Etc.
3) What might be some of the indicators of these various scenarios that the average horseplayer can look for in these situations?
Appreciate you all's thoughts on this.
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Great topic for discussion. I'm not an expert at determining trainer intent, but it's obviously very trainer specific. I might add that tendencies of specific trainers may not exist from circuit to circuit. My advice would be to isolate an incidence where you think "darkening the form" was in play. Then, go back and review said trainers past runners to learn. It's too tedious an exercise for me, but I do think it's something worth pursuing.
One thing I do with respected trainers showing good win percentages is pick spots where I'm scratching my head as to why their horse is entered in today's race. If it doesn't make sense, I look further. For instance, if said horse is entered today at the same level allowance as it's previous two starts without hitting the board, it could be because the trainer knows the ability of the animal. Maybe there's an equipment change or change in surface/distance. Nonetheless, it's worth investigating. Good luck! I hope you find the answers to your questions!
