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Old 08-03-2020, 08:02 PM   #1
SkunkApe
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Max Player Belmont final furlong

I'm trying to calculate the final furlong time for Max Player in the Belmont Stakes on 6/20/20. Am I doing this right?

Last two fractional times for the (1-1/8 mile) race were 1:34.46 and 1:46.53

Using .2 seconds per length:

At the mile, #3 max Player was in 5th place.

The # 1 was in 4th place, 1/2 lengths ahead of the #3.

The #10 was in 3rd place, 1-1/2 lengths ahead of the #1.

The #9 was in 2nd place, 1/2 length ahead of the #10.

The #8 was 1st place, 4 lengths ahead of the #9.

So #3 was 6-1/2 lengths off the lead.

Using .2 seconds per length, #3 that's 1.3 seconds off the lead.

Adding 1.3 seconds to the race time of 1:34.46, the #3 ran the mile in 1:35.76.

Am I doing this correctly?

Data from here:

https://www.equibase.com/premium/cha...0&cy=USA&rn=10

Last edited by SkunkApe; 08-03-2020 at 08:03 PM.
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Old 08-03-2020, 08:54 PM   #2
SG4
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That's the right method, if you want the fractions broken down for you by horse with no pesky need to add lengths, etc you can check out https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/trakus & bring up that date & race
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Old 08-03-2020, 09:05 PM   #3
SkunkApe
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Whoa, thanks.

But their times are slightly different...

I'd assume I made a calculation error, but even the final times for the winner are different.

I must ponder this.
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Old 08-04-2020, 12:42 PM   #4
f2tornado
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That Trakus data is nice. I would otherwise subtract the mile time from the finish time from Equibase chart 1:46.53-134.46=12.07 then make adjustments based on lengths gained or lost through final panel. Equibase suggests Max Player gained 1.25 lengths in final panel providing an adjustment of -0.25 seconds (0.2s/length). 12.07-0.25 = 11.82. This compares with 12.18 on Trakus. Dr. Post gained an almost negligible quarter length in final panel therefore his time should approximate the clock difference... however Trakus suggests a slightly (~1.5 length) slower 12.30. I suppose some of the discrepancy is related to errors in charting.

Last edited by f2tornado; 08-04-2020 at 12:44 PM.
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Old 08-04-2020, 07:42 PM   #5
SkunkApe
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Thanks.

What I’m playing with is: treating the Travers this year like the derby in a normal year, and investigating the “final fractions” theory.
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