Beyer Figs Bogus?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Denny

Maybe you're right!

There are always going to be a lot of subjective figures every racing day. As somebody that does so many tracks I see it all the time. The one thing I try to do is be consistent in the decisions I make. I don't base it on class of horse or trainer or anything like that. I actually limit the information I have on my worksheet for just this reason. You won't find a horse name or human connection anywhere.

A big part of how I got started making my own figures was exactly what you guys are talking about. I saw a lot of figures where I didn't agree with the numbers (not just Beyer) I was seeing for a variety of reasons. I thought I could do it better, and I'd like to think I do. Some may agree, some may not, and that is fine. That is what happens when you make subjective decisions so often.

A horse named Mossflower was the one that set me on my path to be honest. She won an allowance race and I thought the Beyer came back much too slow. I think she got a sub 100 and thought the number should be 110+.

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res...istry=T&rbt=TB

She ran back in a G1 stake and I thought she was the bet of the century. It turned out I wasn't far off this time. There were other times too, but that sticks out personally for a number of reasons. However, it didn't always turn out that. Sometimes I'd be the one dead wrong. I got better at it over the years and hopefully I still am improving.

That said, I don't for one second think Andy Beyer or anyone on his team has any ulterior motive for making the decisions they do. I honestly think they do the absolute best they can to put what they feel is the best number for every race in the DRF. There are always going to be figures where anybody that does what we do has a lot of confidence, and some where we don't have much. We do the best we can with the information we have. Just my two cents.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Denny

Split the variant?

Just another way of making the figure look the way you want it to.
Or how you expect how it should come out!

Totally subjective interpretation is what that is.

I call it fudging - and bogus figure making Beyer style.

that's an idiotic statement to make.


so it was a nice sunny day until race four with a weak easterly.

the weather turned and it started pissing down and the wind strengthened to a gale force westerly.
so it's not valid to treat before and after differently?


fair enough if you don't like what he does, but that is no reason to make yourself look silly...is it?

[fellowmen]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
What if figure makers tried something a little different? For example what if, a study was conducted to measure some or all of these factors and then assign a number, or Ft/sec. that directly correlates to these factors?
Possible factors that may correlate:
a. average depth of soil(dirt) at different points on track from rail
b. compaction number or durometer of track
c. stickiness factor? something like the viscosity of liquids.
d. waviness of surface(ruts, even grade, etc)
e. air humidity and percent of moisture in track surface(top several inches)
d. composition, sand, soil, ground up rubber, etc.
e. surface temperature/air

What about wind speed and direction?

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Denny

As I mentioned in the first post, there seems to be an increasing gap between Beyer and TFUS.

The Preakness - 97 Beyer - 128 TF (cj is that right?) = 31 point diffence.
The differences seem to be growing in size.

Beyer's figs also made it look like Justify was going backwards.

SA Derby - 107
Ky Derby - 101 (from memory, need to verify)
Preakness _ 97

Made Justify appear vulnerable in the Belmont. He wasn't, was he?

Not the case at all with Tineform. CJ might verify if this is true. Believe Justify's numbers were increasing, or at least remained steady.

Justify's Beyer and Briss figures were declining because of the conditions of the track, and in the Preakness because of physical issues. Look at his SA Derby figures, it was the last route on a "fast" dirt track. The decline was not his form, just track conditions.

And by the way, Pletcher uses The Sheets. not Beyer.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Justify's Beyer and Briss figures were declining because of the conditions of the track, and in the Preakness because of physical issues. Look at his SA Derby figures, it was the last route on a "fast" dirt track. The decline was not his form, just track conditions.

And by the way, Pletcher uses The Sheets. not Beyer.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNs0Gahu14Y

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by cj

There are always going to be a lot of subjective figures every racing day. As somebody that does so many tracks I see it all the time. The one thing I try to do is be consistent in the decisions I make. I don't base it on class of horse or trainer or anything like that. I actually limit the information I have on my worksheet for just this reason. You won't find a horse name or human connection anywhere.

A big part of how I got started making my own figures was exactly what you guys are talking about. I saw a lot of figures where I didn't agree with the numbers (not just Beyer) I was seeing for a variety of reasons. I thought I could do it better, and I'd like to think I do. Some may agree, some may not, and that is fine. That is what happens when you make subjective decisions so often.

A horse named Mossflower was the one that set me on my path to be honest. She won an allowance race and I thought the Beyer came back much too slow. I think she got a sub 100 and thought the number should be 110+.

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res...istry=T&rbt=TB

She ran back in a G1 stake and I thought she was the bet of the century. It turned out I wasn't far off this time. There were other times too, but that sticks out personally for a number of reasons. However, it didn't always turn out that. Sometimes I'd be the one dead wrong. I got better at it over the years and hopefully I still am improving.

That said, I don't for one second think Andy Beyer or anyone on his team has any ulterior motive for making the decisions they do. I honestly think they do the absolute best they can to put what they feel is the best number for every race in the DRF. There are always going to be figures where anybody that does what we do has a lot of confidence, and some where we don't have much. We do the best we can with the information we have. Just my two cents.

Good stuff CJ. Man I haven't been on here for a few weeks. Baffert's achievements make writers go to the recall of Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons and he is getting the clay pigeon treatment which Beyer does regularly. Two of the, if not thee two best ambassadors of this game in modern times. Think I'll just go back to some regular days of racing and enjoy the game, which is so fun in the summer instead of participating in these asshole games! Wow.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by fellowmen

What about wind speed and direction?

I left them out intentionally, as they are Cratos' domain. Whatever happened to that guy?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Lets suppose you are correct and you are spotting these "bogus figures", doesn't this give you a golden opportunity to make money? This should be your edge, not your complaint.

Why do you think I review all the Beyers weekly?
I use them to get the variant and then make pace figs from that.
Wen a fig is broken out, I can usually spot it and keep an eye on it when it come to play. I see a lot of figs revised a point of two or three - Quality Control. That "fraud" Beyer is obviously checking on his product in real time!

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Denny

GMB,
Justify was a huge overlay at 4/5 in the Belmont.
Should have been 2/5.
The Beyer figs made it look like he was regressing!
97 for the Preakness was a joke.
Even Beyer bet against Justify with Tenfold in the Belmont.

(It's in the webinar at DRF youtube for those (Tom) who don't believe me)

I am well aware of it.
So far, you have offered but idiotic babble masked as evidence. Stop already - Beyer is so far above the rantings of an internet lunatica who doesn't know s*** about racing it isn't funny any more.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by fellowmen

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
What if figure makers tried something a little different? For example what if, a study was conducted to measure some or all of these factors and then assign a number, or Ft/sec. that directly correlates to these factors?
Possible factors that may correlate:
a. average depth of soil(dirt) at different points on track from rail
b. compaction number or durometer of track
c. stickiness factor? something like the viscosity of liquids.
d. waviness of surface(ruts, even grade, etc)
e. air humidity and percent of moisture in track surface(top several inches)
d. composition, sand, soil, ground up rubber, etc.
e. surface temperature/air

What about wind speed and direction?

You would never be able to afford the figures. All that data collection would make the numbers far too expensive to pay for the effort.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Tom

You would never be able to afford the figures. All that data collection would make the numbers far too expensive to pay for the effort.

It would make one helluva senior project for some engineering students. I thought Davidowitz or possibly Beyer himself said a college professor challenged them to do a statistical study on post positions' effect on winners many years ago. Just another pipe dream.

[Denny]

Steve B,

I was talking about one particular case. My example with Outwork.

The conditions did not change THAT DAY BETWEEN THOSE TWO RACES.
There was no reason to split the variant in that situation.

TOM IS THE FOOL WHO SAID BEYER SPLIT THE VARIANT.

Of course it makes sense if conditions CHANGE during the card to have different variants.

I didn't think I had to spell this out in detail for everyone to understand.

[Denny]

I'm about done posting at this site.
I don't need the abuse being hurled at me.
I don't want to have to explain, and re-explain everything I post to here.
People need to learn how to read what people are actually saying, and not what they want them to be saying.


I'll still post at the Harness site where people are more civil and the talk is about racing and handicapping - and not all the bs that goes on here.

Denny

PS,

Thank you, CJ for your informative responses. I respect you and your figure making very much.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Denny

Steve B,

I was talking about one particular case. My example with Outwork.

The conditions did not change THAT DAY BETWEEN THOSE TWO RACES.
There was no reason to split the variant in that situation.

TOM IS THE FOOL WHO SAID BEYER SPLIT THE VARIANT.

Of course it makes sense if conditions CHANGE during the card to have different variants.

I didn't think I had to spell this out in detail for everyone to understand.

Is it your mission in life to prove to everyone that you don't know CRAP about making figures? Beyer splits variants on off days a LOT of times.

I've never seen anyone as proud of being ignorant as you!
People have been nice and tried to explain things but you just ignore them
SO... when ya leaving?

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Denny

I'm about done posting at this site.
I don't need the abuse being hurled at me.
I don't want to have to explain, and re-explain everything I post to here.
People need to learn how to read what people are actually saying, and not what they want them to be saying.


I'll still post at the Harness site where people are more civil and the talk is about racing and handicapping - and not all the bs that goes on here.

Denny

PS,

Thank you, CJ for your informative responses. I respect you and your figure making very much.

if you worry about what people say, then your skin needs thickening.
it's just words from people on a web page that you will probably never meet, how can that worry you?



take what you think valid and ignore the rest.


personally i can see lots of thing wrong with beyer(book wise only, as i am not in your country), but that does not change the fact, that i would never have known time, without his books giving me the kick start.