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06-20-2018, 07:17 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 4,149
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
As I mentioned in the first post, there seems to be an increasing gap between Beyer and TFUS.
The Preakness - 97 Beyer - 128 TF (cj is that right?) = 31 point diffence.
The differences seem to be growing in size.
Beyer's figs also made it look like Justify was going backwards.
SA Derby - 107
Ky Derby - 101 (from memory, need to verify)
Preakness _ 97
Made Justify appear vulnerable in the Belmont. He wasn't, was he?
Not the case at all with Tineform. CJ might verify if this is true. Believe Justify's numbers were increasing, or at least remained steady.
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You do know that tfus has a pace component that Beyer essentially does not? So there have always been pace related discrepancies.
I think the Beyers are ok in getting you to the contenders. They are way ahead of auto generated bris or trackmaster.
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06-20-2018, 09:15 AM
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#17
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses
You do know that tfus has a pace component that Beyer essentially does not? So there have always been pace related discrepancies.
I think the Beyers are ok in getting you to the contenders. They are way ahead of auto generated bris or trackmaster.
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In long races like the Belmont, and to a lesser extent the Derby and Preakness, pace adjustments are pretty small. For those races it was +2, +3, and 0.
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06-20-2018, 01:11 PM
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#18
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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There definitely seems to be an issue with turf.
At Saratoga, Ironicus broke the track record for a mile on the turf.
Think if my memory is correct, he barely broke a hundred on Beyer.
He makes turf horses look slow - even though they run faster times.
I know Beyer made an adjustment, but it wasn't enough.
He still makes turf runners look slower than dirt runners.
Unfair.
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06-20-2018, 01:39 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
There definitely seems to be an issue with turf.
At Saratoga, Ironicus broke the track record for a mile on the turf.
Think if my memory is correct, he barely broke a hundred on Beyer.
He makes turf horses look slow - even though they run faster times.
I know Beyer made an adjustment, but it wasn't enough.
He still makes turf runners look slower than dirt runners.
Unfair.
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Who exactly is the victim of this unfairness? And if there is an unfairness wouldn't you just make large bets on the horses that are being slighted?
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06-20-2018, 02:19 PM
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#20
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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Beyer is doing the sport no favors.
Making turf horse appear inferior to dirt runners.
He's also doing the sport no favors by lowering his figures for ALL TRIPLE CROWN races.
He makes horses appear to be getting worse.
I think horses are every bit as fast as they've ever been and think the numbers should support that.
Beyer needs an adjustment to his figure making process to reflect what horse really do.
His method is outdated and keeps going backwards because it's based on comparisons and expected values - not reality.
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06-20-2018, 02:35 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
Beyer is doing the sport no favors.
Making turf horse appear inferior to dirt runners.
He's also doing the sport no favors by lowering his figures for ALL TRIPLE CROWN races.
He makes horses appear to be getting worse.
I think horses are every bit as fast as they've ever been and think the numbers should support that.
Beyer needs an adjustment to his figure making process to reflect what horse really do.
His method is outdated and keeps going backwards because it's based on comparisons and expected values - not reality.
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Once again, who is the victim? And why do you care if you know these numbers are so biased and wrong?
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06-20-2018, 03:38 PM
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#22
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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No reason to think the beyer is wrong.
Ever hear of a variant?
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06-20-2018, 04:00 PM
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#23
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,912
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Quote:
bo·gus
ˈbōɡəs
adjective
not genuine or true; fake.
"a bogus insurance claim"
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Ratings are simply ratings. Some are right, some not so right.
Beyer numbers are good numbers. Not perfect or even close, but certainly not fake.
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06-20-2018, 08:32 PM
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#24
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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Stepen Foster.
Winner - Pavel
TFUS - 128
BSF - 101
Beyer again makes a good horse look so so.
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Ironicus set a track record at Saratoga last year on turf.
Beyer had him barely breaking 100.
Beyer makes a superb effort and horse look ordinary.
Makes a turf horse look inferior.
His numbers are BOGUS and fit the definition of the word.
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06-20-2018, 08:42 PM
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#25
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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Best example I recall.
A few years ago in the Wood Memorial. He gave Outplay a far better number than the filly, have to look up her name, that won the 3yo filly stake a half hour earlier. The fiilly ran a FASTER time at the same distance on the same track.
It was a wet track and didn't get any better or worse.
Beyer fudged the fig for the Repole/Pletcher trained Outplay.
You could look it up.
His numbers are BOGUS.
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06-20-2018, 09:02 PM
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#26
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
Beyer fudged the fig for the Repole/Pletcher trained Outplay.
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Yeah, that's what he did...because he gives a shit what Repole/Pletcher think of him or the numbers he gives their horses.
Why, I see Beyer dining and hobnobbing with Repole/Pletcher every chance he gets...
Come on man...this isn't even a good episode of Punk'd
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06-20-2018, 09:14 PM
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#27
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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I don't know why he did it PA.
Just stated a fact about who the horse belonged to.
A lower number also would make the race look very bad for a TC prep.
Just sayin'.
Don't tell me people aren't politically motivated, for appearances sake, at times.
Jut my opinion on that.
There are numerous examples of fudged figures by Beyer over the years.
This is well documented.
He purposely increased the BSFigure for Outplay, but, left the filly number lower - even though she ran significantly faster on the same track, at the same distance!
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06-20-2018, 09:21 PM
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#28
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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PS. PA,
You do know that DRF is now using Beyer figs to promote breeding, don't you?
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06-20-2018, 09:56 PM
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#29
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
There are numerous examples of fudged figures by Beyer over the years.
This is well documented.
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Well documented where? Denny's house?
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06-20-2018, 09:57 PM
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#30
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
PS. PA,
You do know that DRF is now using Beyer figs to promote breeding, don't you?
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So why aren't all the Repole/Pletcher horses sporting 120s and higher all the way down their PPs?
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