Originally Posted by chickenhead
I very rarely play the pick 6, but I think it's a wonderful bet. I got the Crist book and have been reading it recently. He lays out a pretty logical structure, and includes some actual plays he has made.
He gives an example from 2005 BC day. I am not questioning his handicapping, but I do question a little how he put his opinion into play.
He had three strong opinions going into the day:
Leroi was a lock to win the Mile.
St. Liam was a lock to win the Classic.
LITF was extremely vulnerable.
Now obviously I can't know exactly how he saw the races, so lets just assume that he really did feel strongly and that those three opinions really did represent his feelings. If he felt less strongly so be it, but for the purposes of my question let's assume that was it.
Most all are familiar with the A/B/C approach to structure, if not go buy his book.
So his total ticket costs are $3,348. What I don't like about his ticket is that $1440 are committed to beating one of his two locks from above, either Liam or Leroi. This left substantially less money to spread in the races where he did not have such a strong opinion -- particularly the sprint, where in the biggest upset of the day, which he predicted, he had 4 A's and no B's -- also in the F+M turf, which he spread 3A 3B 3C.
If he had been willing to live and die on just his two strongest opinions he would have been able to spread much deeper, 5A and 5B in the sprint, up to 6Bs and several Cs in the F+M turf.
While Leroi did get beat, he undoubtedly would have had the conso as Pleasant Home was an A contender (very nice peice of capping), and he apparantly knew that the F+M turf was not a race he had handled.
Now I am really not writing this like some might think, "oh, it's easy to second guess blah blah" -- I am talking about the fundamental idea:
Is it really smart to bet against your strongest opinions to the tune of 40%? Or should those truly be your keys, i.e. you must insist that you give yourself the best possible shot to get paid when your very strongest opinions are correct. And if they are not correct, so be it.
That is kind of how I look at it, but I've never hit the big pick 6's. I realize that in a p6 sequence, especially one with some interesting things happening, you can't insist on being too right about too many things, but it seems like insisting on being right about one or two things (assuming you have some strong opinions) ups your chances significantly.
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