Sam F. Davis GIII Tampa Bay

[CheckMark]

The Grade 3 Sam F. Davis is happening this Saturday. An excellent full field of 12 for this year's Derby Prep at Tampa Bay Downs.

Info: Tampa Bay R10 GIII Sam F. Davis Stakes 1 1/16 Miles Dirt PT: 5:15 pm ET

Derby Points Scale: 20-10-6-4-2

Pace Scenario: Loads of early speed in this race: 2 Lone E horses, 7 E/Ps, 1 P and 2 Ss. I think that PATRIOT SPIRIT has the best E1 speed speed in this race.

Favourite: Track Profile says 48% of the time, they will win for the favourite with 77% ITM. 77% <5/1. The favourite, CHANGE OF COMMAND has never run in a Stakes or Graded Stakes race before and could be a tough race for him.
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Top 4 Picks

ELYSIAN MEADOWS (15-1) Going longshot hunting in this race. Undefeated in career, but facing tougher company for first time today. Bill Mott 46-90 Days away (20%/50%), Shipper (19%/46%) and Graded Stakes (20%). Hoping he sits just off the pace, and makes a big bold move in the stretch run to make an upset victory!

COPPER TAX (5-1) Had a trip from hell his most recent start. Ran 5-wide into the first turn, then got bumped around the rest of the race and had to race 4/5 wide again into the stretch where he finished a poor 6th place finish. Scratch that race out, and he stands out very well in his form. Ranks 1st in BPP. New jockey switch could help. Has been working well and value should be there.

PATRIOT SPIRIT (6-1) Ran a sharp race on home soil LR. Hit new top and Camacho stays on. He knows this horse well so should benefit him in this race. Camacho with E/P type horses (23%/60%) and in Routes (21%/56%). Trainer Campbell 46-90 Days (19%/45%) and is positive on return ROI. Is my top E1 horse and should try his hardest to go gate-to-wire in this one.

AGATE ROAD (7/2) Likely T2 betting choice. Up in class from LR after closing decently to finish 2nd by 1.5 lengths over at Gulfstream in NG Stakes. Pletcher with Shippers (23%/55%) and horses 2nd Off LO (25%/55%). Jose Ortiz w/Todd L60 (35%/65%) and positive on return ROI. If pace falls apart upfront, this one could be set up nicely turning for home.

Wagering Strategies
W/P
Exacta w
Trifecta w w
Superfecta w w w

Best of luck to all!

[bisket]

I’m not betting this race, but here’s hoping Copper Tax develops into a derby horse. One of my favorite race calls is, “Here’s comes the Captain” in the 1997 Preakness. The only problem is Captain Bodgit was trying to run down Silver Charm. I’d like to see Gary Capuano get another chance at a derby. If the Captain came along in many other years Gary would have had a derby and Preakness to look back on.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

This is the kind of field and race that make the Triple Crown run a lot of fun. We have the big time backed expensive horses in the and that were purchased for $1,050K, $875K, and $650K respectively.

Then we have the little old purchased for $11k that already has a Graded Stakes win under his belt and over $304K in the bank.

Expecting a much more honest pace than the Holy Bull from last week with a number of sprinters stretching out. A lot of interesting horses including the 2 expensive colts trained by Pletcher, the million $ Shug, and a lot of smaller barns and trainers we can all get behind. Nobody has really ran a huge race or big figure at 2 turns. Truly a field of a bunch of unknowns at this point in time as to what they can do rolling into bigger and longer races.

The and would be the only ones that would really surprise me if they got it done.

Still interested in the No More Time that opted to run here instead of the Holy Bull.

Fully expecting a scratch or two in this one, so will wait and see what ends up being the true field.

[zico20]

What we have hear is a crapshoot, you can toss the and the other than that the other 10 can all win this. None of these horses look like they are on the trial to glory. I am going to take a guess here, and that is all it is, and pick the

[Ahorsewithnoname]

# No More Time
Paco Lopez / Jose D'angelo

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

No scratches, with the absence of Locked and not a proven horse in the field they are all gonna take their shot.

on top
w/

[denniswilliams]

[jay68802]

At 6/1 or higher will take the and to win.

[bisket]

Free past performances from DRF so I’ll put my toes in the water 5$ ex box

[Nitro]

TAM - Tote Analysis

Race #10 – 9-6 W/ 5-12-11 @ 3 mins to post

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

TAM - Tote Analysis

Race #10 – 9-6 W/ 5-12-11 @ 3 mins to post

Results:

Race #10 = 5-6-10-12-11 = EX BX / Winner took all the very late action!
(5/1 to 3/1 w/ Over ½ Million in the Win Pool!

POS	#	Horse	             Win	Place	Show
1st:	5	No More Time	     $8.60	$5.20	$4.20
2nd:	6	Agate Road		       $5.20	$4.20
3rd:	10	West Saratoga		      $10.00
4th:	12	Elysian Meadows			
5th:	11	Fulmineo			
•	$2.00 EXACTA 5-6 $52.60
 

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Wow!

$.50 Tri pays $331

[classhandicapper]

It wasn't a particularly strong field, but the winner was OK. The fractions were fast and if anything the track wasn't particularly kind to speed, but he wired anyway. TimeformUS also has the race a bit faster than Beyer before the pace adjustment.