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12-04-2017, 11:11 PM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by acorn54
i am not going to argue. i just thought i would add some intelligent thought to the conversation of how statistics are used in models of predictability, to avoid redundancy of the influence of variables.
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No argument sought nor intended. Would simply like you to expand on the concept of independent variables as something useful in betting horses. be specific as to what variables you believe would yield the best results.
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12-05-2017, 12:13 AM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Houston Tx.
Posts: 3,130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
No argument sought nor intended. Would simply like you to expand on the concept of independent variables as something useful in betting horses. be specific as to what variables you believe would yield the best results.
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I have no idea what you are asking of him.
These are independent variables.
Post time favorites win about 35% of the time.
In Turf Paradise dirt races, early speed wins many more races than late speed.
At some other track late speed might be king.
Next year late speed might be the way to go at Turf Paradise.
The only consistent variable besides post time favorites in horse racing is money.
Year after year Trainers, Jockeys, Owners & Horses that make the most money continue to win races and make more money.
Using any the above variables may help us with our handicapping, but none of them will make us better gamblers.
__________________
Laboratory rats are susceptible to drug addiction, obesity, diabetes, heart disease and cancer.
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12-05-2017, 10:28 AM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 3,630
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I read Mike's book over the weekend and had him on my show today. I found the book to be a good mix of biography/stories, handicapping psychology, handicapping, and betting.
To me the most interesting stuff was the horseplayer psychology stuff. I think that's some of the less talked about stuff that I find the most interesting. Interview with Mike starts about 8 minutes in if you want to listen.
https://extra.betamerica.com/barn-podcast-12517-2/
__________________
Check out my daily horse racing podcast The BARN at www.betamerica.com/barn
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12-05-2017, 11:42 AM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MONEY
I have no idea what you are asking of him.
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".....if you are using handicapping factors, you are dealing with INDEPENDENT variables. it is not good practice if one is attempting to make a prediction model to mix both."
I am asking him to explain what he means. To me, handicapping factors are overwhelmingly dependent variables. I would like to know how one would go about trying to improve handicapping results by using independent variables exclusively.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MONEY
These are independent variables.
Post time favorites win about 35% of the time.
In Turf Paradise dirt races, early speed wins many more races than late speed.
At some other track late speed might be king.
Next year late speed might be the way to go at Turf Paradise.
The only consistent variable besides post time favorites in horse racing is money.
Year after year Trainers, Jockeys, Owners & Horses that make the most money continue to win races and make more money.
Using any the above variables may help us with our handicapping, but none of them will make us better gamblers.
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In all races that have odds-on favorites at TUP do the favorites still win 35% of the time? If not, what good is that stat?
Does early speed win more races than late speed where there are 4 dedicated frontrunners in the race?
Are your examples of independent variables really independent if they are dependent on the makeup of each race or are they just averages?
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12-05-2017, 12:49 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 17,095
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MONEY
I have no idea what you are asking of him.
These are independent variables.
Post time favorites win about 35% of the time.
In Turf Paradise dirt races, early speed wins many more races than late speed.
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The variables discussed here are the data used in statistical analysis. That would include things like split times, final times, speed figures, recency, etc. The question raised here is which of those are independent of human influence, such as the trainer or the jockey.
In the context of statistical analysis, the statement "early speed wins many more races" would be a conclusion, not a variable.
__________________
A man's got to know his limitations. -- Dirty Harry
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12-05-2017, 03:42 PM
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#51
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jballscalls
I read Mike's book over the weekend and had him on my show today. I found the book to be a good mix of biography/stories, handicapping psychology, handicapping, and betting.
To me the most interesting stuff was the horseplayer psychology stuff. I think that's some of the less talked about stuff that I find the most interesting. Interview with Mike starts about 8 minutes in if you want to listen.
https://extra.betamerica.com/barn-podcast-12517-2/
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I like your show and I listen to it regularly...any way we can get Michelle back on the jury...? Thought she had some good picks...
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12-05-2017, 07:38 PM
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#52
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
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The author said that before the Super went under a dollar, there was value there and it frequently paid out to ALL ....that's all changed now that the DIME is here, which he said leveled the playing field-- something, he said was good for racing....he also said that when the Super was a buck, he would structure his tickets on the assumption that it would indeed payoff to an ALL...I guess that would look something like this:
Bombs
Bombs
Bombs/ Contenders
Any single
Anybody have a take on what his strategy would have looked like...?
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12-05-2017, 09:26 PM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jballscalls
I read Mike's book over the weekend and had him on my show today. I found the book to be a good mix of biography/stories, handicapping psychology, handicapping, and betting.
To me the most interesting stuff was the horseplayer psychology stuff. I think that's some of the less talked about stuff that I find the most interesting. Interview with Mike starts about 8 minutes in if you want to listen.
https://extra.betamerica.com/barn-podcast-12517-2/
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Great interview Jason. I had the pleasure of working with Mike on the NTRA Player's Panel back in 2004(?). We wrote the tax portion of the panel's recommendations. I am sure that when the recent regulations were enacted regarding withholding that he was the happiest horseplayer around. He shared with me his yearly battles to finance his betting because his money was all tied up in tax withholding. He is/was an exotic player and most of his wins would result in tax withholding. He could cash winning tickets totaling $2,000,000 and have a profit of $200,000 but need betting money because $560,000 was being withheld from the winning tickets.
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12-05-2017, 10:49 PM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Houston Tx.
Posts: 3,130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jballscalls
I read Mike's book over the weekend and had him on my show today. I found the book to be a good mix of biography/stories, handicapping psychology, handicapping, and betting.
To me the most interesting stuff was the horseplayer psychology stuff. I think that's some of the less talked about stuff that I find the most interesting. Interview with Mike starts about 8 minutes in if you want to listen.
https://extra.betamerica.com/barn-podcast-12517-2/
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So, do you now have an edge?
__________________
Laboratory rats are susceptible to drug addiction, obesity, diabetes, heart disease and cancer.
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12-06-2017, 11:33 AM
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#55
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 980
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I listened to the interview---there was nothing in there that would benefit handicappers except I found it a bit distressing that he said that Keenland and Red Mile give him office space.
Does he pay for this, or is it a perk given to large bettors; of course, at mine expense and many other small bettors?
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12-06-2017, 11:40 AM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Quote:
Originally Posted by linrom1
I listened to the interview---there was nothing in there that would benefit handicappers except I found it a bit distressing that he said that Keenland and Red Mile give him office space.
Does he pay for this, or is it a perk given to large bettors; of course, at mine expense and many other small bettors?
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I just started reading the book last night, so far so good. As for his perks, I don't see how giving him office space would hurt anyone else. It's just good business to give your best customers some perks.
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12-06-2017, 01:13 PM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by linrom1
I listened to the interview---there was nothing in there that would benefit handicappers except I found it a bit distressing that he said that Keenland and Red Mile give him office space.
Does he pay for this, or is it a perk given to large bettors; of course, at mine expense and many other small bettors?
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How much is unused office space going for at the Red Mile? How much money do you think that the Red Mile makes due to Maloney betting there? Assuming he bets $5,000,000, (it could be more but it couldn't be too much less) and the Red Mile makes 3% on his action or $150,000, how does that hurt you? What expense are you paying for?
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12-06-2017, 02:07 PM
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#58
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 980
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
How much is unused office space going for at the Red Mile? How much money do you think that the Red Mile makes due to Maloney betting there? Assuming he bets $5,000,000, (it could be more but it couldn't be too much less) and the Red Mile makes 3% on his action or $150,000, how does that hurt you? What expense are you paying for?
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It's not office space, but, everything that goes with it such as: access to the racing office, trainers, jockeys' agents, etc. How about unfettered access to the tote?
This guy sounds like such a lovable guy who cares about handicappers Can I stop laughing now?
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12-06-2017, 03:01 PM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by linrom1
It's not office space, but, everything that goes with it such as: access to the racing office, trainers, jockeys' agents, etc. How about unfettered access to the tote?.....
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What's stopping you from going to the racing office or talking to trainers and jockey's agents? Unfettered access to the tote sounds sounds very grassy knoll-like.
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12-08-2017, 10:10 PM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
Do you use trainer stats?
Not very often.
Do you handicap jockey connections? Never
Do you follow owners? Never
Do you see which owners and trainers dress up when they have a live one running? Never
Do you know which trainers are superstitious and where lucky clothing when running a contender? Never
Can you tell me the workout patterns of the winning horses of the trainers at your local or favorite track? No, but I don't care.
Can you tell me which trainers like to give their horses a race at the track before trying to crack down? No, but I don't care.
There are many other people factors that can be handicapped. Failing to account for the people factor ignores pertinent information.
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Mostly a bunch of impertinent noise, IMO.
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