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Old 10-03-2018, 10:21 PM   #61
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Thank you for taking a stand.

How many years?

This is here and this is now.

I'll give you another good book to read: Exotic Betting: How to Make the Multihorse, Multirace Bets that Win Racing's Biggest Payoffs by Steven Crist.
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Old 10-06-2018, 12:22 AM   #62
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What would you consider the fundamentals to be? And aren't the so-called fundamentals part of going conventional?
I just mean you need to understand the game and what it is the competition is betting.
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Old 10-06-2018, 03:03 AM   #63
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get every book on physicality you can get your hands on. Trillis Parker had a good one, but it would be tough to find.

The days of a "very good" handicapper making a consistent annual profit today are almost gone using traditional handicapping methods. It won't get any easier. You need an edge, physicality gives you that.

Requires a LOT of patience. If you bet one track each day you may get three or four bets a week, total. Any more than that, you will lose your ass. Keep bets to three or fewer per week using solid win bets on good looking horses that tower over the field physically and are contenders, you'll turn a profit.. Period. Please be warned, read this paragraph closely.

My advice to a young handicapper for books.

Steve davidowitz book, betting thoroughbreds (fundamentals)
Steve collison's The Claining Game (racing is a business, not a series of math quizzes. Lot of hyperbole in the book, just ignore it )
Trillis Parker, Horses Talk

Trillis Parker had a good video out, again it may be hard to find. I actually liked it better than the Joe takach videos (which were ok). I'd start right there.

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Old 10-06-2018, 11:25 AM   #64
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Im not really a fan of the numbers used in Handicapping Magic but I think some of the concepts/tools in there are pretty good and hold up.... maybe more so the more experience and better you get at the game.
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Old 10-06-2018, 12:21 PM   #65
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I just mean you need to understand the game and what it is the competition is betting.
I would agree with the "understanding the game" need. Kind of like baseball has nine innings with three outs per side per inning. Bases are 90 feet apart, etc.

As far as what the competition is betting, shouldn't that be what will the competition be betting after the last tote flash before the beginning of the race? Otherwise I don't care what they bet because my bets are made because of odds which reflect what others have bet.
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Old 10-06-2018, 12:39 PM   #66
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I would agree with the "understanding the game" need. Kind of like baseball has nine innings with three outs per side per inning. Bases are 90 feet apart, etc.

As far as what the competition is betting, shouldn't that be what will the competition be betting after the last tote flash before the beginning of the race? Otherwise I don't care what they bet because my bets are made because of odds which reflect what others have bet.
An expierienced, comprehensive type of approach even if conventional may give you a better idea of how a race or your potential horse is gonna get bet than trying to look at the tote imo.
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Old 10-06-2018, 12:53 PM   #67
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An expierienced, comprehensive type of approach even if conventional may give you a better idea of how a race or your potential horse is gonna get bet than trying to look at the tote imo.
What about an approach to value all contenders by probability and then letting the tote decide which one to bet? Ideally isn't that how gambling should be approached? Bet where there is value.
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Old 10-06-2018, 01:07 PM   #68
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What about an approach to value all contenders by probability and then letting the tote decide which one to bet? Ideally isn't that how gambling should be approached? Bet where there is value.
In theory yes....in practice, for me anyway not so much.
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Old 10-06-2018, 02:02 PM   #69
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I would agree with the "understanding the game" need. Kind of like baseball has nine innings with three outs per side per inning. Bases are 90 feet apart, etc.

As far as what the competition is betting, shouldn't that be what will the competition be betting after the last tote flash before the beginning of the race? Otherwise I don't care what they bet because my bets are made because of odds which reflect what others have bet.
Sure, you have to understand the game to know what is going to be bet when it is too late for you to react.
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Old 10-09-2018, 08:17 PM   #70
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My Book Picks

Pace Makes he Race
Modern Pace Handicapping
Handicapping Magic
Mitchell's Common Sense Books
Kinky Handicapping
Beyer On Speed
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Old 10-09-2018, 11:48 PM   #71
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Pace Makes he Race
Modern Pace Handicapping
Handicapping Magic
Mitchell's Common Sense Books
Kinky Handicapping
Beyer On Speed
That is a nice set
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Old 10-10-2018, 02:00 PM   #72
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When I was 16 my dad or my uncle had to make my bets for me. I wasn't allowed anywhere near the windows.

Mom went to New York OTB to make bets for me in the Winter of 1975.


Best horse payoff: Sew for Four at Hialeah (a Jack Leahy Paddock Echo's special) Paid huge bucks (I forget 35-1?) in the seperate NYCOTB pool back in the day.


Allan

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Old 10-10-2018, 06:21 PM   #73
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Mom went to New York OTB to make bets for me in the Winter of 1975.


Best horse payoff: Sew for Four at Hialeah (a Jack Leahy Paddock Echo's special) Paid huge bucks (I forget 35-1?) in the seperate NYCOTB pool back in the day.


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But what did you get on the exchange?
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Old 10-11-2018, 04:48 AM   #74
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The Handicapping Speed book, by Charles Carroll, is very good.
Carroll's book is one of the best. He debunks the myth that 1 length is equal to 1/5 second and explains how a Thoroughbred length is 8 feet. The commonly accepted 10 feet is for Clydesdales. He even discusses how Chaos Theory applies to racing and does everything with great wit. I used to use his speed figures and found them very good.
I've ordered Carroll's book. Amazon says I will get in one or two weeks.

Meanwhile I have doubts as to whether the actual physical length of a horse has anything to do with what is reported. For all I know a length is the distance between the poles holding up the rail. Or the person coming up with this data simply loads the video into his computer, watches it on a video editor, comes up with the actual time a horse was behind the leader (video is 30 frames per second), then applies the 5 lengths per second rule to get the reported lengths.

The actual speed of a horse at any given call will vary with the length of the race and the class. A $10,000 claimer may be going faster at the first call in a five furlong sprint than a G1 stakes horse at the finish of a mile and a quarter.

If a video camera were installed at each call then each horses actual time at each call could be reported. But with the industry dying no one is going to make that investment.
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Old 10-11-2018, 02:50 PM   #75
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I've ordered Carroll's book. Amazon says I will get in one or two weeks.

Meanwhile I have doubts as to whether the actual physical length of a horse has anything to do with what is reported. For all I know a length is the distance between the poles holding up the rail. Or the person coming up with this data simply loads the video into his computer, watches it on a video editor, comes up with the actual time a horse was behind the leader (video is 30 frames per second), then applies the 5 lengths per second rule to get the reported lengths.

The actual speed of a horse at any given call will vary with the length of the race and the class. A $10,000 claimer may be going faster at the first call in a five furlong sprint than a G1 stakes horse at the finish of a mile and a quarter.

If a video camera were installed at each call then each horses actual time at each call could be reported. But with the industry dying no one is going to make that investment.
That is what TRAKUS is doing in a different way by electronically tracking every horse, not just the leader, at each point of call. With this method the length of the horse is irrelevant. This is quite a difficult technological undertaking and one must expect occasional errors.

True, as far as adjustments for beaten lengths, the beaten lengths reported can vary for a number of reasons but if we are using the wrong measurement for a length to begin with this introduces an additional source of inaccuracy. All we can do is at least begin with accurate information to begin with. Small errors in premises of how long a length is are multiplied by the distance of the race which covers many lengths.
There are also methods for beaten lengths that do not involve class but something more accurate
to calculate how far behind the leader is in terms of time by using the horses actual velocity, to estimate how long it will take a horse to cover the time it's behind the leader.

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