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Old 10-02-2018, 06:35 PM   #31
bobphilo
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I wonder how much of Quirin's stuff actually held up over larger sample sizes. They were pretty small if memory serves, obviously being limited for several reasons at the time.
I believe his study was based on data collected over several years. In any case, while large sample sizes are fine, they are often over estimated by the general public. I agree that in certain specific situations sample size needed to be limited, but he handled these professionally. Exactly what I have been advising you to anticipate in your own study of pace patterns with suggestions you have been getting to include multiple variables. Much more important is how the data is collected and used. He also gave excellent explanations for his findings consistent with logic and science. His use of regression analysis to develop a comprehensive betting method that weighed all the handicapping factors according to research findings was brilliant.

As far as applicability, 82% of Amazon customers gave his book their top rating. I observed that his findings hold up from my own experience and observations spanning 60 years.

His methodology could not be criticized by anyone with formal training in research methodology. Take it from me, as someone well known for my critical approach to how research is done, Quirin's work is excellent, notwithstanding the criticisms of those who are attached to the handicapping theories that came about before modern research methodology was used in the field. I know you are familiar with who I am referring to.

It's only limitation I see is that he had to use the old inaccurate DRF speed figures. I would love to see a modern study using today's more accurate modern speed and pace figures, which is why I anticipating your current study on pace patterns.

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Old 10-02-2018, 06:48 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
I believe his study was based on data collected over several years. In any case, while large sample sizes are fine, they are often over estimated by the general public. I agree that in certain specific situations sample size needed to be limited, but he handled these professionally. Exactly what I have been advising you to anticipate in your own study of pace patterns with suggestions you have been getting to include multiple variables. Much more important is how the data is collected and used. He also gave excellent explanations for his findings consistent with logic and science. His use of regression analysis to develop a comprehensive betting method that weighed all the handicapping factors according to research findings was brilliant.

As far as applicability, 82% of Amazon customers gave his book their top rating. I observed that his findings hold up from my own experience and observations spanning 60 years.

His methodology could not be criticized by anyone with formal training in research methodology. Take it from me, as someone well known for my critical approach to how research is done, Quirin's work is excellent, notwithstanding the criticisms of those who are attached to the handicapping theories that came about before modern research methodology was used in the field. I know you are familiar with who I am referring to.

It's only limitation I see is that he had to use the old inaccurate DRF speed figures. I would love to see a modern study using today's more accurate modern speed and pace figures, which is why I anticipating your current study on pace patterns.
Two questions for you, Bob:

1.) Who could this "archaic" handicapper be?

And, 2.) Do you think that you can beat him in a handicapping contest?

As they say..."talk is cheap".
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Old 10-03-2018, 01:26 PM   #33
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I think a serious 16yo can come up with good angles at that age that he will not remember as he becomes "matured" and "educated" just as I did at 10yo.
Remember Bubbles?
He did ok!
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Old 10-03-2018, 01:27 PM   #34
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Light, I learn by writing things down in Hilroy notebooks and I mean EVERYTHING! From my trips to the track, to mentors teaching me the ways of their handicapping, to stats about my selections. And I can remember ANYTHING!
Most important thing you can do - RECORDS!
If your record keeping doesn't make you a winner, at least you will have something to read in the poorhouse.
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Old 10-03-2018, 02:49 PM   #35
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Whatever you do, don't go the conventional route to start, that road has no profit in it......Go outside the box, go contrarian, and read Kinky Handicapping by Mark Cramer.
I agree going conventional will eventually get you in trouble, but I also think you have to learn the fundamentals first.
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Old 10-03-2018, 02:56 PM   #36
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I agree going conventional will eventually get you in trouble, but I also think you have to learn the fundamentals first.
What would you consider the fundamentals to be? And aren't the so-called fundamentals part of going conventional?
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Old 10-03-2018, 03:37 PM   #37
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IMO...the only way to become unconventional is by blazing our own trail through our own independent research. No matter how "unconventional" a popular handicapping author may initially be...his popularity won't keep him unconventional for long. Such is the price of "fame"...
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Old 10-03-2018, 03:43 PM   #38
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IMO...the only way to become unconventional is by blazing our own trail through our own independent research. No matter how "unconventional" a popular handicapping author may initially be...his popularity won't keep him unconventional for long. Such is the price of "fame"...
Are you saying that my "popularity won't keep me unconventional for long?" or is this for someone else?
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Old 10-03-2018, 03:46 PM   #39
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Are you saying that my "popularity won't keep me unconventional for long?" or is this for someone else?
SRU...welcome back to the board.
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Old 10-03-2018, 03:56 PM   #40
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SRU...welcome back to the board.
Thanks?
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Old 10-03-2018, 04:20 PM   #41
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IMO...the only way to become unconventional is by blazing our own trail through our own independent research....
Completely agree. It's hard to do when first starting out so most people turn to books where they believe every word that is written. I believe it would be better to develop or improve ones research skills and attack racing from a blank slate.
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Old 10-03-2018, 04:42 PM   #42
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and I thought we were talking about books!

OK, I'll play, Money Secrets At The Racetrack by Barry Meadow.
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Old 10-03-2018, 05:24 PM   #43
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and I thought we were talking about books!

OK, I'll play, Money Secrets At The Racetrack by Barry Meadow.
I thought that too!
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Old 10-03-2018, 05:42 PM   #44
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Completely agree. It's hard to do when first starting out so most people turn to books where they believe every word that is written. I believe it would be better to develop or improve ones research skills and attack racing from a blank slate.
If we were talking about something like sports-betting, then a "blank slate" might be preferable for a total beginner...because our team sporting events have become part of the fabric of our society, and the interest in them is already implanted in all of us. But horse racing has gotten removed from the American sports-scene to the extent where the vast majority of the "interested beginners" know next to NOTHING about the game. Where but to the well-meaning advice of a misinformed friend can the total novice turn for any direction about this game, if he refuses to read an introductory-level handicapping book? How can he even realize on his own what sort of "individual effort" is necessary for the endeavor? No...he shouldn't believe everything that he reads in such a book...just as he wouldn't fully believe what he reads in any OTHER book. But I have a hard time believing that the interested beginner would be better off following his own "instincts"...instead of picking up a decent introductory book on handicapping.
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Old 10-03-2018, 05:56 PM   #45
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I agree with that.

Pick your poison and next read Handicapping Magic.
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