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Old 09-20-2018, 05:42 AM   #1
bobphilo
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TimeformUS Figs Key to Belmont Longshot Win

Cartwheelin Lulu who had the top pace figure and was tied for the top TFUS speed figure, won the Gimma Stakes at Belmont Wed. at a nice 7-1. Great figure making CG. She did not have the top figure on Beyer or Thoro-Graph.
She was ignored by class handicappers as she was coming off a Maiden Race win at lowly Finger Lakes and was facing fillies who had won or placed in Saratoga Stakes no less.
Of course it helped that she showed the expected improvement on her 2nd lifetime start and had just had a bullet work in 46 and change for a half mile.

Also, of course, I got home too late to bet this filly with all my favorite angles.

Last edited by bobphilo; 09-20-2018 at 05:46 AM.
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Old 09-20-2018, 11:17 AM   #2
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Cartwheelin Lulu who had the top pace figure and was tied for the top TFUS speed figure, won the Gimma Stakes at Belmont Wed. at a nice 7-1. Great figure making CG. She did not have the top figure on Beyer or Thoro-Graph.
She was ignored by class handicappers as she was coming off a Maiden Race win at lowly Finger Lakes and was facing fillies who had won or placed in Saratoga Stakes no less.
Of course it helped that she showed the expected improvement on her 2nd lifetime start and had just had a bullet work in 46 and change for a half mile.

Also, of course, I got home too late to bet this filly with all my favorite angles.
Thanks Bob! (Assuming I am CG)
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Old 09-20-2018, 11:49 AM   #3
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She was fourth best and won because of a confluence of horrendous rides by other jockeys, as well as a bias that ultimately worked in her favor. If horses that are fourth best at 7:1 are your bag, she was a great bet.

I'm a fan of the TimeformUS product but wouldn't use her as a poster child for its value.
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Old 09-20-2018, 12:12 PM   #4
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She was fourth best and won because of a confluence of horrendous rides by other jockeys, as well as a bias that ultimately worked in her favor. If horses that are fourth best at 7:1 are your bag, she was a great bet.

I'm a fan of the TimeformUS product but wouldn't use her as a poster child for its value.
That is pretty common at NYRA for the supposed best riders in the world.
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Old 09-20-2018, 12:15 PM   #5
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I would have to go re-watch the race, but how can you say she was 4th best!? Didn't she essentially set the pace and battle horses in the stretch to hold on for the win? I'd say that was making her own luck track bias or not.
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Old 09-20-2018, 12:59 PM   #6
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She was fourth best and won because of a confluence of horrendous rides by other jockeys, as well as a bias that ultimately worked in her favor. If horses that are fourth best at 7:1 are your bag, she was a great bet.

I'm a fan of the TimeformUS product but wouldn't use her as a poster child for its value.
Are you sure we're talking about the same horse? She was tied for the highest speed figure despite a wide trip and a high pace figure to offset the apparent rise in class. This was her 2nd lifetime race so there was a good chance she could run faster. I forgot to mention she had a trainer with an excellent win % of 29% with shippers and a bullet work (her best ever) that indicated that this was one of those races that was a go for this guy. She also had the early speed to clear the field and get to the rail, which she did. Only then did I look at the odds that at 7-1 were more than acceptable.

The whole process begins with the figures and then to look for signs that they will either be repeated, drop or rise. In this case, this was the whole enchilada of the horse with the best figures to begin with and several indications that they were going to get even better this day at a very generous price to boot.
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Old 09-20-2018, 12:59 PM   #7
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She was fourth best and won because of a confluence of horrendous rides by other jockeys, as well as a bias that ultimately worked in her favor. If horses that are fourth best at 7:1 are your bag, she was a great bet.

I'm a fan of the TimeformUS product but wouldn't use her as a poster child for its value.
To lend some context to this post, the race is going to get a horrible figure.
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Old 09-20-2018, 01:01 PM   #8
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Are you sure we're talking about the same horse? She was tied for the highest speed figure despite a wide trip and a high pace figure to offset the apparent rise in class. This was her 2nd lifetime race so there was a good chance she could run faster. I forgot to mention she had a trainer with an excellent win % of 29% with shippers and a bullet work (her best ever) that indicated that this was one of those races that was a go for this guy. She also had the early speed to clear the field and get to the rail, which she did. Only then did I look at the odds that at 7-1 were more than acceptable.

The whole process begins with the figures and then to look for signs that they will either be repeated, drop or rise. In this case, this was the whole enchilada of the horse with the best figures to begin with and several indications that they were going to get even better this day at a very generous price to boot.
I agree with all of this. But I also agree with Andy. He is saying the filly was fourth best after the race and seeing the trips.

Sometimes we make the right bet, the horses don't cooperate, but we win anyway. Happens plenty where we make the right bet and are on the other end, losing with the best horses. Such is horse racing. If you make the right bet often enough it should all work out in the end.
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Old 09-20-2018, 01:26 PM   #9
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The title to the thread, "Timeform Figs Key to Belmont Longshot Win " is misleading to me.....At odds of 7-1, this is far from being in the category of a "longshot", as these odds represent just a mid-priced horse, IMO...
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Old 09-20-2018, 01:35 PM   #10
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The title to the thread, "Timeform Figs Key to Belmont Longshot Win " is misleading to me.....At odds of 7-1, this is far from being in the category of a "longshot", as these odds represent just a mid-priced horse, IMO...
She was the 2nd longest price on the board.
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Old 09-20-2018, 01:38 PM   #11
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She was the 2nd longest price on the board.
That does not change anything I stated.....The horse still paid mid-price.
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Old 09-20-2018, 01:41 PM   #12
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She was the 2nd longest price on the board.
I'll also add the rarely do I bet a horse I think is best as the odds don't really cooperate. A lot of bets I make are on horses I think are better value than the given odds and hope a a thing or two go my way.

Also, the horse didn't have the best speed figure. Two others were better, including the longest shot in the field. She clearly had the top early rating which is a big factor in 2yo races and on what most think was a biased track.
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Old 09-20-2018, 01:42 PM   #13
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That does not change anything I stated.....The horse still paid mid-price.
Are we really going to argue over what somebody considers a longshot? There isn't a correct answer here so lets not dwell on this.
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Old 09-20-2018, 01:46 PM   #14
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Are we really going to argue over what somebody considers a longshot? There isn't a correct answer here so lets not dwell on this.
OK.....The horse at 7-1 was not a good bet, regardless of the result, IMO...
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Old 09-20-2018, 01:50 PM   #15
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I agree with all of this. But I also agree with Andy. He is saying the filly was fourth best after the race and seeing the trips.

Sometimes we make the right bet, the horses don't cooperate, but we win anyway. Happens plenty where we make the right bet and are on the other end, losing with the best horses. Such is horse racing. If you make the right bet often enough it should all work out in the end.
I thought That Andy meant she was the 4th best before the race was run making her a poor bet, to which I disagree for the reasons I stated. Maybe he can clarify.

Trakus does indicate that some horses had had wide trips. Hope you post the figures when you do them to see how ground loss affected the outcome. I'm also going to check the replay for trips.
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