Quote:
Originally Posted by menifee
You have to take Mendelssohn right? There’s no way a serious bettor could think Justify is a better bet here.
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May be a great deal, may be a bad deal. I don't know.
If I had to take a wild guess I'd have Justify 2/1 and Mendelssohn 30/1 on my fair odds line (while not necessarily eager betting either one at those prices), but I haven't had more than a superficial look at Mendelssohn, and I could eventually rate him much higher.
I have to extrapolate a lot more with Mendolssohn's form.
How does his ability translate to the Kentucky Derby? Has he taken dirt in the face? What is his running style? How good was his UAE Derby when he had a trip to run his top? Would Vino Rosso (an American grinder with classic-distance stamina) been able to lead that field and run just as nice looking a performance, or was it indicative of special ability that would apply to the Derby? How much can we learn from his entire body of work? Are his works available for viewing?
Justify, we already know has crop-leading talent. It's just a matter of him running his race. Beating Justify is about hoping he doesn't rate, or doesn't change leads, or has a bad trip. The 'translation' part is already over.