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Old 03-23-2018, 10:00 PM   #1
Afleet
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Sunland Derby

Sunland Park, Race 11, 5:15 PM MT, Sunday, March 25, 2018
$800,000.00
Grade III Stakes
1 1/8 miles
Main Track
3 year-olds

Total Number of Picks On This Race: 652

Program # Picks Horse PH Odds
1. 68 All Out Blitz 7 - 1
2. 19 Dark Vader 28 - 1
3. 71 New York Central 6 - 1
4. 104 Hollywood Star 4 - 1
5. 100 Peace 9 - 2
6. 13 Shane Zain 41 - 1
7. 109 Prince Lucky 4 - 1
8. 40 Seven Trumpets 12 - 1
9. 65 Choo Choo 7 - 1
10. 22 Dream Baby Dream 24 - 1
11. 36 Runaway Ghost 14 - 1
12. 5 Fortified Effort 109 - 1

Publichandicappers like Hollywood star. I don't have the pp's, but will go w/the Oaklawn horse New York Central. Hit a good pick 4 on him earlier in the year
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Old 03-24-2018, 05:40 PM   #2
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No obvious 'derby trail' horses, but it could be a good betting race.

There's several in here that are interesting at first glance.

had a rough post and trip in the Lecomte stakes. Moves Jones-->Pletcher.
Worked with 'Audible' a horse who has had success with Pletcher, and he outmoved Audible so badly that he had to wait on Audible on the turn. No way that he'll be the ml of 6/1 at post time. Great workouts have a way of being overbet, and fans will gravitate to Pletcher without a standout. However he does look a major player.

is a good value include on paper. Last couple races didn't seem to favor closers and he ran OK.

's pace figures are strong enough to warrant at least some replay watching. Not sure if he's up to this class of racing, but he's the local.
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Old 03-24-2018, 07:45 PM   #3
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looks like another decent betting race.

i haven't broken it down much after a cursory glance.
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Old 03-24-2018, 07:57 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
looks like another decent betting race.

i haven't broken it down much after a cursory glance.
I agree and leaning toward Dark Vader 15-1. I know Eurton is high on him.
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Old 03-24-2018, 08:27 PM   #5
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I agree and leaning toward Dark Vader 15-1. I know Eurton is high on him.
first glance i like the inside.

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Old 03-24-2018, 08:39 PM   #6
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had a rough post and trip in the Lecomte stakes. Moves Jones-->Pletcher.
Worked with 'Audible' a horse who has had success with Pletcher, and he outmoved Audible so badly that he had to wait on Audible on the turn. No way that he'll be the ml of 6/1 at post time. Great workouts have a way of being overbet, and fans will gravitate to Pletcher without a standout. However he does look a major player.
i don't put much stock in workouts and warm ups. but if there is buzz about him you have to consider. tell me more. especially since you seems to think he;ll be short priced

could be a player as the lecomp is a throw out and pletch takes over

however,...imo the horse doesn;t look that strong on paper..but he has the right to improve.
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Old 03-24-2018, 08:57 PM   #7
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i don't put much stock in workouts and warm ups. but if there is buzz about him you have to consider. tell me more. especially since you seems to think he;ll be short priced

could be a player as the lecomp is a throw out and pletch takes over

however,...imo the horse doesn;t look that strong on paper..but he has the right to improve.
workout
https://www.xbtv.com/video/todd-plet...rch-17th-2018/

about 1minute on the video Prince Lucky starts to pull away. About 1:15 he has to wait on Audible.


While I was impressed, I've already been burned once this year with an impressive workout. Sometimes the other horse had a poor work. Sometimes the horse you like just happened to move prematurely(didn't seem to be the case here because of the rider on Audible visibly beginning to 'drive').

Gut says there is a decent chance that there will be 'buzz'
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Old 03-25-2018, 12:28 AM   #8
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workout
https://www.xbtv.com/video/todd-plet...rch-17th-2018/

about 1minute on the video Prince Lucky starts to pull away. About 1:15 he has to wait on Audible.


While I was impressed, I've already been burned once this year with an impressive workout. Sometimes the other horse had a poor work. Sometimes the horse you like just happened to move prematurely(didn't seem to be the case here because of the rider on Audible visibly beginning to 'drive').

Gut says there is a decent chance that there will be 'buzz'
i don't know what to make if this..good for lucky? bad for audible? negligible for both?

the next video after this one was audible a week later. he was whipped vs this unknown horse just yesterday. do you know who this horse was?

i do know that both lucky and the horse below were prompting audible, but audible couldnot keep up for the most part

https://www.xbtv.com/video/todd-plet...rch-17th-2018/
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Old 03-25-2018, 12:55 AM   #9
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half the field looks a little slow, or not the horse for the course, or might be lower stock.

#3 is eligible to get better, as with most but i think he's too cheap and not fast enough. i know some will like him, but he's one of my last throw outs. and if i dont like him i really can't lke #6 and #8 who was a little intriguing, but the last race was really poor.

roman's main player is the #4 here..if the 8 runs big i'll lose. the #10 was also beaten by ny central,,,,all of them seem a notch below imo

#9 has some gate speed and did run 144.2 on that GG surface in the 100k cal derby. there;s some questions about the dirt though, but he did beat dark vader on the turf which may mean nothing.

#11 looks pretty fast but don't they always run a little faster at sunland? i think you have to respect this horse and use him.

#12 the eleven beat him by 7L that's all you need to know
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Old 03-25-2018, 01:15 AM   #10
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the #1 and #4 seem like major players. natural progression, and or class or the right place at the right time.

i think the #2 and #5 are right beneath them and with a little luck either could be 1st or 2nd as well at a price

dont know what to do with the #7 first instinct is don't use..but if you cross out the lecomp and you have a horse with possibilities and one waiting to show he's classy enough and could beat better. barn change has to help, but he still has a lot to prove.

#11 dont like the post but he could bottom the field if he can get an easy lead. he looks fast enough. the horse that beat him when he was 2-5 (reride) is going to the UAE i believe

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Old 03-25-2018, 09:39 AM   #11
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Looking at the field, I think its safe to say no one will consider this a "key race" like last year...
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Old 03-25-2018, 10:33 AM   #12
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Wow this is a tough race I'm going with the peace and the dream baby thinking there will be some pace to run into.
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Old 03-25-2018, 11:07 AM   #13
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This is a very weak prep. The ran a decent second to McKinzie then fell well short in the San Vicente. Enough respect to not toss but this one seems vulnerable. The simply looks too slow running 1:40 miles won't cut it in most stakes company but this is a weak group. I'm leaving off the top. I like Romans but the has bounced around the country and yet to do much. I would not be shocked if he won here but also wouldn't be shocked if he was 7th. There are better prices on the board. The got up for 4th in San Felipe. A similar race should at least put him in the picture. I think he will be an underlay. TAP + JV combo equals enough respect to use in the win pool. Solid work, Lecomte has proven form. The might be Romans' best shot. If you draw a line through the OP slop then the horse has been quite consistent. I'm not sure he wants any part of 9F but could also be in the picture. is consistently fair but has shown little to suggest winning at 9 panels. The likes to pick off horses in the stretch but is a nw2 to show for it. has shades of Conquest Mo Money last year. He's got the right Brisnet figures to contend for the win.

Not sure how I will play it but first thought was /
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Old 03-25-2018, 11:38 AM   #14
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When did Sunland get rid of their live streams/replays on the site? Dont think I'll even be able to watch this race.
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Old 03-25-2018, 11:41 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Afleet View Post
Sunland Park, Race 11, 5:15 PM MT, Sunday, March 25, 2018
$800,000.00
Grade III Stakes
1 1/8 miles
Main Track
3 year-olds

Total Number of Picks On This Race: 652

Program # Picks Horse PH Odds
1. 68 All Out Blitz 7 - 1
2. 19 Dark Vader 28 - 1
3. 71 New York Central 6 - 1
4. 104 Hollywood Star 4 - 1
5. 100 Peace 9 - 2
6. 13 Shane Zain 41 - 1
7. 109 Prince Lucky 4 - 1
8. 40 Seven Trumpets 12 - 1
9. 65 Choo Choo 7 - 1
10. 22 Dream Baby Dream 24 - 1
11. 36 Runaway Ghost 14 - 1
12. 5 Fortified Effort 109 - 1

Publichandicappers like Hollywood star. I don't have the pp's, but will go w/the Oaklawn horse New York Central. Hit a good pick 4 on him earlier in the year

I like the to improve, taking a shot with over
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