Belmont Stakes

[lamboguy]

when is that rain supposed to start falling on friday?

with my luck, it will be off the turf that day in belmont

[Valuist]

Its easy to outsmart oneself handicapping for slop a few days in advance. Just from experience, I've learned that weather forecasters tend to over predict rain (and snow for that matter). Years ago, I used to go to early bird betting during the week, so I was betting before 8 am. One thing I learned quickly was, if the track was still dry and fast at 8 am, don't ever automatically assume big rains are coming.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Its easy to outsmart oneself handicapping for slop a few days in advance. Just from experience, I've learned that weather forecasters tend to over predict rain (and snow for that matter). Years ago, I used to go to early bird betting during the week, so I was betting before 8 am. One thing I learned quickly was, if the track was still dry and fast at 8 am, don't ever automatically assume big rains are coming.

i am not trying to handicap the weather, i am trying to figure out if my horse is going to run or not. i have to scratch if it comes off the turf there because my horse is not fit enough to run on the dirt and i am going to blow 10 days because the racing office claims i entered either way.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i am not trying to handicap the weather, i am trying to figure out if my horse is going to run or not. i have to scratch if it comes off the turf there because my horse is not fit enough to run on the dirt and i am going to blow 10 days because the racing office claims i entered either way.

My comment wasn't directed specifically to you; just in general handicappers tend to anticipate slop and mud too often, IMO. Then race day comes and its overcast but the rain never hits. Or its just an occasional drop or two that has zero impact on track condition. Those that have been prepping for slop are then totally lost and have to react.

If the rain does hit, I know I will scale back my wagers considerably.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

when is that rain supposed to start falling on friday?

with my luck, it will be off the turf that day in belmont

Latest forecast has rain starting tonight, with 1 inch of rain during the day Friday, and 1-2 inches more late Friday.

As a recovering meteorologist, I'm amazed at times how much more accurate the models are today vs. the LFM of the mid-1980s. However, the models then and now seem to often move systems through too quickly, so the Belmont Stakes could still be wet.

If Easy Goer is entered at the last minute, do they bring the jet dryers out on the track?

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder

Latest forecast has rain starting tonight, with 1 inch of rain during the day Friday, and 1-2 inches more late Friday.

As a recovering meteorologist, I'm amazed at times how much more accurate the models are today vs. the LFM of the mid-1980s. However, the models then and now seem to often move systems through too quickly, so the Belmont Stakes could still be wet.

If Easy Goer is entered at the last minute, do they bring the jet dryers out on the track?

actually I find the opposite tendency to be true.

[WinterTriangle]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

How does Revolutionary move down on a sloppy track? He just ran third in a sloppy Kentucky Derby!

Why you must use your own eyes to do your own handicapping. Some of these services keep spitting out information where the original information in the flow chart is wrong.

Here's a for-instance, which has continued to crack me up for the entire TC season:

WTC keeps getting "toss in slop" comments. Why? Because it was muddy for the Southwest Stakes, and he did so poorly in that race.

However, WTC was working bullets over the OP track in mud and slop, after the Rebel --- best of 10 horses 5F on the day, so obviously, he has no problem with slop His failure in the Southwest can be attributed to a myraid of "other reasons." Slop wasn't it.

But once you attribute a false reason to a loss, and then keep running with it, it will affect your handicapping all the way down the line into the future.

Now, this will also continue to show up so you will have to reevaluate any actual off track ratings against theoreticals for him. Conversely, I am careful with a horse like Golden Soul who's numbers might show a bit elevated due to running 2nd in KY Derby, even though it's only one race.

Race reports that say "no factor" could mean 1,000 different things, you have to watch each and every race that impacts your handicapping.

Another great one is jocks, bystanders and clockers who say stuff like "wasn't even breathing hard after the race/workout"

Then you go back and watch and see that the horse was extremely "leg weary". (As a former runner, I can tell you there are plenty of times when your lungs can go another 5 miles but your legs are about to collapse under you. ) You do not wager a horse like this to "go longer".

To be at all useful, information has to be placed in context, and then evaluated for legitimacy. Use due dilligence to evaluate any and all infomation that comes your way.

[JackS]

I'm of the mind "keep it simple" the best horse will win regardless of weather or track condition. I'm not so niave to believe that these two factors MAY play a part in the outcome but I'd rather lose then change an opinion based on factors that I can't fully understand. Unless horses are proven specialist on certain surfaces or proven losers on certain surfaces, It is probably best for most of us to play the horses we want to play as if every thing including weather was perfect.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

How does Revolutionary move down on a sloppy track? He just ran third in a sloppy Kentucky Derby! (I don't like Revolutionary, but just thought that was interesting)

Revolutionary is a closer type horse, not a deep closer but still a closer. A sloppy Belmont track has been traditionally unkind to closer types.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

They are calling for 1-2 inches of rain on Friday into Saturday morning. If that rain falls on Belmont, it surely won't be fast. Unless Easy Goer is running again...

I'm thinking, unless the bottom falls out, if the rain ends Sat AM the track for the Stakes will be considered fast, but the pace will not be overly fast, ok but not fast. in the 1:12s ?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by raybo

Revolutionary is a closer type horse, not a deep closer but still a closer. A sloppy Belmont track has been traditionally unkind to closer types.

They took off Borel in favor of JJ.

If it is a slop-fest I may rather have Borel up, but Castellano is probably better at Belmont anyway.


an off track makes almost no difference in this Belmont. Concentrate on the undercard for that stuff.

Most of these horses are being priced off the Derby(slop) anyway.

Freedom Child can run on the moon, he doesn't get moved up on the slop. Maybe he takes less kickback being in front, but you also will see goofy horses like Palace Malice, Frac Daddy and maybe Oxbow asked early on an off track, off-setting any real advantages.

[Robert Fischer]

Overanalyze is the one horse from the Derby that I could see there being any off-track questions with. He kind of got a funky trip in the Derby and got sealed off in traffic a little. Was difficult to tell if he just had a bum trip, or if he had a disappointing performance. I thought he was superior to Revolutionary before the Derby, and I still think he may be. Still hard for me to tell.

In a race like the Belmont and John Velazquez up, you figure he will at least get a clear mid-pack run at it.

[Valuist]

Just checked www.wunderground.com and while rain is almost certain for tomorrow, now they are just saying 20% chance of precipitation for Saturday.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by raybo

I'm thinking, unless the bottom falls out, if the rain ends Sat AM the track for the Stakes will be considered fast, but the pace will not be overly fast, ok but not fast. in the 1:12s ?

Now they are calling for 4-5 inches of rain, not the 1 or 2 I cited earlier in the week...

[raybo]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Now they are calling for 4-5 inches of rain, not the 1 or 2 I cited earlier in the week...

Yeah, doesn't look good.