Dan G Pace Advice - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Niko · 04-08-2008, 10:28 AM

I was cleaning up my computer and came upon this from Dan G. I don't have a lot of saved notes but I think this is an awesome analysis and should be studied carefully. I can't remember if it was written on this board or on the HTR board which I used to visit occasionally-so I hope it' s ok to post it here and I hope Dan G doesn't mind. It was on a public forum so I'm assuming it's ok, otherwise it can always be taken down I guess. I've put his words in bold.

Turf routes: Very selective by surface, distance and will go back 10 lines if need be.

This was covered by Michael Pizzolla in his book also, saying that you should look at the late fraction of every turf race. I personally believe the last fraction should be looked at within the context of the pace of the race. Easy to run a 110 when the early pace is only 50 so I used an adjusted rating giving some credit for early pace and running style. I think it's more valuable if the horse with the best rating isn't an S horse.

• Turf sprints: Extremely selective as these are racings specialist and will arbitrarily penalize 1st time turfers for poor PED’s and or connections who use this type for conditioning.

Don't know much about PED's other than it's a breeding rating on HTR. I've learned that I can use a Mile race to rate a 5 or 5 1/2 furlong turf race but I would never do that on dirt.

• Age: of the animal is CRITICAL in paceline selection. It just follows nature that younger / healthier animals improve and / or run their “good” numbers more often then their elder’s. I also make ‘maturity adjustments if I’m grabbing lines from immature animals.

I split out the last race from others in the past performance for this very reason. I think the last race is a lot more predictable in a maiden or lightly raced 3 year old race than for a 6 year old. If I lump in best of last 3, last 2/3 it takes away the advantage of analyzing it that way. I rarely use the last line when looking at established horses other than to verify form.

• Sprints: <7f at most tracks; I try and handicap many races as if the finish line is at the head of the stretch. The final 1/8th in most sprints is just a function of what happened by mid-turn and so many animals cannot duplicate their “A” races in different scenarios and yet many players focus on their peak final ratings.

I like to use this "angle" in stakes races also and turf sprints. I don't think this insight by Dan can be underestimated. It's hard for a horse to win if it can't make a serious bid on the leader in the stretch and stay out of traffic trouble. I like a horse that can get a jump and much prefer an E/P or P horse to an S or even E horse. The exception being certain race shapes.

• Routes: I like route races where a few interesting animals have yet to try it / have used sprints as preps / have drawn a far bettor post when a journeyman wrapped up last time from the 12 box at a mile etc…I just don’t make long term money betting bread and butter routers with current ability by averaging ratings, instead their needs to be conditioning angles such as workout ratings / hidden FR1 ability and a PED that suggests stretch out to get some sort of price. PS: It’s tough to make money betting obvious route horses on most circuits. Large bettors focus on these types because of the decrease in volatility due to the longer race where animals can overcome adversity bettor than sprints.

The only thing I'd like to add is that I think one of the biggest sucker bets is a late closing sprinter stretching out or a late closing miler stretching out in distance-typically an S horse. I love plodders or horses with even running lines stretching out. I never thought about the bread and butter routers and how hard it is to beat them...

Thanks Dan G, I couldn't have putten it together so well-and I hope you don't mind my additions.

rokitman · 04-08-2008, 10:37 AM

Nets · 04-08-2008, 11:39 AM

Niko,

Thanks for posting this. Dan G is one of several posters that deserve attention when they speak (IMO). The man certainly knows his stuff.

Gary

46zilzal · 04-08-2008, 01:12 PM

Sound, if not basic, advice.

Niko · 04-08-2008, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Sound, if not basic, advice.

Basic to some, but there are all types of players on this board.
Probably very useful to some.

What would you add?

46zilzal · 04-09-2008, 06:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Niko

Basic to some, but there are all types of players on this board.
Probably very useful to some.

What would you add?

That you have a lot to learn.

Charlie D · 04-09-2008, 07:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

That you have a lot to learn.

Maybe if more experienced handicappers offered their advice like above on selecting contenders, pacelines etc to those with less experience, it would boost the pools which may benefit those who gave the advice in the first place

Just a thought

Charlie D · 04-09-2008, 07:46 AM

Just a few people who chose to share their knowledge

Beyer, Sartin, Brohamamer, Mordin, Potts, May, Rowlands

I thank them and i hope others like them, continue to do the same

Niko · 04-09-2008, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

That you have a lot to learn.

your response did make me laugh this morning so thanks...

I certainly don't know everything....

If the advice is misguided? then maybe you can clue us in, but I understand you not wanting to share also

njcurveball · 04-09-2008, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Niko

If the advice is misguided? then maybe you can clue us in, but I understand you not wanting to share also

Do a search and you will find this poster backfits his analysis to races to prove his intelligence.

Coming into a thread like this where information is being shared and basically $hitting on it is certainly not going to impress anyone he is a genius.

Dan's original post (like many of his other ones) was insightful, articulate, and helpful.

Reading his words are like sitting in the dugout talking to Reggie Jackson or Mickey Mantle.

Sound, if not basic, advice.

The above sentence may be germane telling someone to be careful betting a 10 pound apprentice or a horse with front wraps.

Something like the sentence below (as well as the rest of the post) is very sound, very professional, and a large help to those who do not think they know it all.

their needs to be conditioning angles such as workout ratings / hidden FR1 ability and a PED that suggests stretch out to get some sort of price.

Calling this basic would be like sitting behind the wheel of a formula 1 race car and calling it a basic ride.

Nets · 04-09-2008, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by njcurveball

Do a search and you will find this poster backfits his analysis to races to prove his intelligence.

Coming into a thread like this where information is being shared and basically $hitting on it is certainly not going to impress anyone he is a genius.

Dan's original post (like many of his other ones) was insightful, articulate, and helpful.

Reading his words are like sitting in the dugout talking to Reggie Jackson or Mickey Mantle.

Sound, if not basic, advice.

The above sentence may be germane telling someone to be careful betting a 10 pound apprentice or a horse with front wraps.

Something like the sentence below (as well as the rest of the post) is very sound, very professional, and a large help to those who do not think they know it all.

their needs to be conditioning angles such as workout ratings / hidden FR1 ability and a PED that suggests stretch out to get some sort of price.

Calling this basic would be like sitting behind the wheel of a formula 1 race car and calling it a basic ride.

Well said NJC
Personally, I don't need someone else's opinion to tell me if I benefit from something. I take info from some posts while others don't really appeal to me. I'm thankful that so many intelligent handicappers are willing to share whatever insights they choose. That's why so many of us make this site a daily stop.

Gary